Skip to main content

Qld Derby and Stradbroke previews

It's Brisbane's premier day of racing with the Derby and the $1m Stradbroke Handicap over 1400m, always a fantastic race. Taking the reins for the previews is Gibbo from BrissyRaces. On the website, he has every race at Eagle Farm covered, I've just borrowed a couple of them...

Race 6: The Queensland Derby

Barriers have thrown this wide open! I would have liked a better barrier and a wet track for VATUVEI but I still think he is the one here. His run in the St Leger (2800m) was outstanding. He then had a little freshen up and dropped back to 2200m around the tight Doomben track. He got a slight check at the 550m and lost a length so should have finished closer. He will be better for the run and 2400m around E-F will be more to his liking. BRAMBLES the stable mate led all the way in the Grand Prix 2200m. I’m not sure he will be able to that here but he will push forward and keep himself out of trouble. ZABEELIONAIRE drew best out of the fav’s and Oliver will get some cover midfield. He is coming off the S.A Derby win where he was impressive. It will be a great training performance to peak the horse again here, but he gets the right run to have every chance. WESTSOUTHWEST was 3rd in that Derby and ran well when winning on returning last week to top him off for this. LUCRIPETOUS is another with a bad gate which may force them to go back again. They were looking to be closer in the run if they got a decent gate. He is a nice horse who was given no chance what so ever at Rosehill where he had 58kg and was near last in a very slow run race. He made a long sustained run and it was full of merit. If he gets some cover I’d expect a very good run. QUINTESSENTIAL is in this up to her ears also. Not sure how they will ride her from the outside gate. Her win was dominant in the Oaks last week and fillies do have a good recent record when taking on the boys in the Derby! I’m sure the plan with TOHUNGA would be to find the front by the winning post the first time and try to turn it into a true staying event. He is a real slogger and I think that would give him his best chance.

LARGO DA BARRA, RED SHIFT and the fillies INVEST (scr) and POST RESTANTE getting back to a decent surface look the others worth thought for first 4’s etc.

On Top: 4-VATUVEI

Hardest To Beat: 1-ZABEELIONAIRE, 16-QUINTESSENTIAL, 9-LUCRIPETOUS

Race 7: The Stradbroke Handicap

What a cracking edition of the Stradbroke! BUFFERING, TIGER TEES, SEA SIREN, CELTIC DANCER all push forward and set a very good tempo up front. BUFFERING is a different proposition this year over the 1400m. He was narrowly beaten over the 1350m last start at WFA after missing work and a race in the lead-up. He was very good day after working early and was by no means ‘hitting a wall’ at the end. Class will take him a long way. You can guarantee he will be right in the fight at the 100m mark and you can’t say that about a lot of the others. SPIRIT OF BOOM is set to run the biggest race of his life and peaks here. I was with Tony Gollan Thursday and he is very happy with all his team. SPIRIT OF BOOM has a great record here where he appreciates the big track. The 1400m and a decent surface suit him perfectly. He drops 5kg from the 10,000 and at $17 he looks enormous value. WEALTH PRINCESS will improve sharply getting back to a better surface and she hasn’t carried 53kg in a long time. SEA SIREN gets the run of the race and she is trying to set all types of records carrying 55kg and attempting to win the ‘big 3’. She can win but find it hard to take her at the $4. I have loved VARENNA MISS preparation. She should have won the T.J Smith G1 two starts ago and Doomben simply didn’t suit her. She gets the blinkers first time and can sit outside horses which she appreciates. TIGER TEES will be in the speed battle and we will know a lot more about him after this. PHELAN READY is a horse I think can run a race at huge odds. The key for him is the drop to 54.5kg as he doesn’t let down as well in the WFA events.

On Top: 1-BUFFERING

Value: 10-SPIRIT OF BOOM

Others: 17-WEALTH PRINCESS – 16-VARENNA MISS

For the rest of Gibbo's previews, CLICK HERE and follow him on Twitter, @brissyraces.

Comments

  1. Hello, you don't know me by this is but I was an avid reader and contributor to the sports betting / trading community. I have now begun another chapter in my life and trying to recover from gambling addiction. I have started a blog to try to assist me in my journey and would appreciate it if you could find a way to plug it for me, It may sound contradictory but I think some readers of these BLOG (including my own one in the past) may have similar issues to me and I would appreciate a little help from influential bloggers such as yourself.If you feel it is inappropriate I will understand but hey ho, it was worth an effort. Wish me luck.

    http://betfair2ga.blogspot.ie/

    Paddy

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…