Skip to main content

Queensland Oaks preview

It's not just Epsom hosting the quality racing this weekend, the blog will also have previews of the French Derby (Prix du Jockey Club), the Spanish Derby, features from Haydock and Musselburgh, plus from (sometimes) sunny Queensland, it's also Oaks Day. Making his debut on the blog is racing analyst Adrian Gray. Follow him on Twitter at @_AdrianGray
-----------------
The 2012 Queensland Oaks has shaped up to be one of the betting highlights of the Queensland Winter Carnival, with a forecast heavy track providing great value for numerous runners.

The deserved favourites are both international raiders from NZ, with Miss Artistic and Quintessential placing 1st and 3rd in the NZ Oaks.  While both runners have proven themselves over the distance, tomorrow’s event was an afterthought after already having to peak once this preparation. Both have been working home well in their lead up races; however both will need to be 100% for the second time this year to achieve the feat last accomplished by Scarlett Lady. Big ask, but both are worthy contenders.


Next favourite is the very smart Angel Of Mercy. An extremely capable miler, beaten a head by four time Group One winner Mosheen over 1400 six starts back, the ability to stay mile and a half is a major query here.  While she has a class edge on all of these horses, the expected genuine tempo will stretch her.
The next two lines of betting, Scorpio Queen and Dowager Queen, are both unbeaten on heavy tracks. Dowager Queen is by far the most experienced of the runners, having had 23 starts, and finished well back in the NZ Derby, as did next in line Poste Restante.


Invest, unlikely to run if the track stays heavy, took out the South Australian Oaks over 2000 metres two starts back and just held off the fast finishing Miss Artistic and Scorpio Queen last start, suggesting it has peaked already and the 2400 is beyond it.


Red Typhoon and Pretty Pins are the next two lines of betting and the last of the legitimate contenders. Red Typhoon was victorious over her own age and sex over 2500m last start, and Pretty Pins will benefit hugely by the wet track, genuine tempo, blinkers on first time and back to her normal midrace position of well back. Watch for her swooping late. 


Rock Hit missed a start in the traditional lead up to the Oaks, the Roses, however bolted in by 7 lengths against much inferior opposition at Toowoomba last start. Vittoria is an honest stayer who finished fourth in the VRC Derby. 


Love Excels could be the blowout runner. After only two very impressive starts, it could be on the up and is definitely one to include in the trifectas. 


Angelus, Rocksan, Hula Lua, Crystalised, Anagold, Ablackahawka, Grab The Loot, Eliza Blues and Urban Rocker have all finished long way behind each of the previously mentioned runners in their lead up runs and would need to sprout wings to come close here.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…