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Tercentenary Stakes preview

Late in the day we have Group 3 stakes race and a distance handicap, both restricted to 3yo and both wide open in the betting. Best we call in our handicap specialist, Dan Kelly. Follow him on Twitter @muffinmannhc

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The Tercentenary Stakes, Group III, 1m2f.

Crius - Richard Hughes / Richard Hannon
Form: 11221-26

Had a decent looking profile at 2 where arguably should have won first three starts but he's paying for that end of season win in the Tattersall Stakes with both his last run and this being run under a penalty. Disappointed at the Curragh after racing so keenly and with only Goldoni the other confirmed front runner in the field, chances are he may fail to settle again. Craven run possibly flattered by having the rail, others preferred.

Cavaleiro - Hayley Turner / Marcus Tregoning
Form: 33211-39

Improving 2yo profile which ended with a win over Harvard N Yale at Newbury on Good to Soft ground. Tregoning thought that he would be a late developing type, and campaigned as such at 3 with his last two runs coming in Lingfield Derby Trial and the Derby itself. Lingfield run was a solid one given he was coming into the race without the benefit of a prep run. Tracked leaders, he was unable to quicken 4f to 2f out shuffled back as a result, but stuck to the inside bar passing Hajras and he was flattered to finish so close to Shantaram and Main Sequence. Put in his place in the Derby, has a lot to find as price shows.

Energizer - Adrie de Vries / Jens Hirscherger
Form: 145-24
Link to German Form & Video Replays

I'd normally be excited to see a German raider, and I am to a point, but with regards to chance of winning, I have my doubts. First two runs, he was out from the stalls swiftly and looking to make the pace, but following defeat on second start he was held up on final start, and held up since. He has proven that he has trained on at 3, with a hd defeat at hands of French 2000Gns 4th Amaron, and finishing 4th himself in the German version. Both runs suggest he is not the most straight forward of characters with the hood been on for both starts. Far better colts back in Germany, so should at least give a pointer to how good their Classic crop is this year.

Goldoni - David Probert / Andrew Balding
Form: 592147-216

Took a while to break his maiden tag, but you get the feeling he's held in high regard given he raced in the Chesham on his second start, and it didn't take long for him to break his maiden tag. His best run at 2 was in a Listed event at Salisbury where unlucky not to be a lot closer in slowly run affair as was blocked at vital point. Disappointed on last run at Haydock but that was his 6th run of season so could have been over the top. Returned in decent form when 2nd to Kingsdesire at Doncaster where that race has shown to be decent with Kingdesire himself being tilted at a Derby Trial and Conditions Stakes when beaten by Starboard since, 4th and 5th Ex Oriente and Montaser. Disappointed in the Lingfield Derby Trial, Andrew Balding was disappointed with the switch to the All Weather and he stated post race he didn't handle it one bit, and this race or King Edward VII Stakes been targeted since. Not the flashiest of types on paper, but foolish to overlook readily.

Grandeur - Frankie Dettori / Jeremy Noseda
Form: 21-412

Not many of Noseda's win on debut, and when they do take note, this one did everything but and has improved considerably since. Failed to act on the Heavy ground at Sandown, he accounted for a good sort in Trader Jack (Runs in the Brittania 4.25) readily and at Epsom thought he was unlucky. Held up off an ordinary gallop, he didn't look in love with the track in the straight, changed his legs at the wrong time and just couldn't reel in Wrotham Heath in the closing stages. Any rain would be a negative and I am not as sweet on the Diamond Jubilee Handicap form as I have been in previous years.

Mukhadram - Paul Hanagan / William Haggas
Form: -21

Late maturing type, didn't see course until this season when second in what is turning out to be a very hot Wood Ditton. Winner, Mariner's Cross, has come out and finished a good 2nd to Noble Mission who runs in the King Edward VII Stakes tomorrow and 5 others have come out of the race and won since. Mariner's Cross had benefit of the rail throughout and Mukhadram was keen early. For his next start he was wearing a cross haired noseband to help him settle, and he duly did winning comfortably. That form has been franked also with 2nd and 5th winning since. Bred to appreciate this step up in trip, dam being a half sis to Mastery and Kirklees, he could very much well be anything. Missed engagements at Doncaster due to ground, so rain would be off putting if ground was to ease considerably, but he does look a smart colt and slightly overlooked in betting at 7s.

Rewarded - Kirsty Milczarek / James Toller
Form: 21-114

Improving son of Motivator, he has the potential here to blow an attractive handicap mark of 90. Was the beneficiary of a walkover at Sandown on debut, he was given much more of a task by Archibishop at Newmarket. Keen early, he rallied once hitting the rising ground to account for Archbishop, another to blow handicap mark by runnign a good 2nd in Group race in France. Better was still to come at Newbury in the London Handicap where hampered twice in the straight his chance was gone and Expense Claim hand flown. Expense Claim has since ran good races in higher grade, however both haven't been run to suit. Thomas Chippendale a ready winner at Newmarket and Clayton running well in Edinburgh Cup.

Starboard - William Buick / John Gosden
Form: 61-21

Attractive entries suggest he's held in high regard, but I have been disappointed with what I've seen this year. Buick was outpointed by Hughes at Newmarket in what was nothing but a match race, however Hughes did start Fort Bastion was probably best chance of week before being pulled from Jersey, his run at Doncaster has a few holes in it too.
Expense Claim is best when coming off a pace and putting race to bed two furlongs out, so doing donkey work himself is a neg and Kingdesire is similar in that he has shown keeness in his races and at Doncaster he looked to be wanting to go a fair bit quicker early on. In book he has a win at Redcar, a defeat in match race and ground out victory over opponents with circumstances against them.

Stipulate - Ian Mongan / Sir Henry Cecil
Form: 143-142

Tales Of Grimm - Ryan Moore / Sir Michael Stoute
Form: 1-3

Cover the above two together due to their latest run being the Heron Stakes at Sandown, but first previous form.

Stipulate shown throughout 2yo days a keen going tendency, and again it was apparrent at Newmarkey in the Feilden Stakes, but he ran away with that race. Keen and fighting for head, he pulled himself to front 1f out and powered away. Excuses at Sandwon on Heavy ground.

Tales Of Grimm winner of a Newbury maiden, which has thrown up 3 other winners, is related to some ok sorts, full brother Do It All a Gr3 winner in Meydan over a mile, and Stupendous Miss, Dam, a Gr3 winner in US over 9f and a winner over 10f in France so trip should be ideal.

Both ran in the Heron Stakes, with differing paths. Stipulate settled far better this time around sitting just off the pace in 4th throughout and just caught on the line by Cogito. Tales Of Grimm was held up wide and made move 3 furlongs out without ever looking to land a blow. Wouldn't be surprised to see Tales Of Grimm reverse the form today, however he's very skinny at 5s.

Wrotham Heath - Tom Queally / Sir Henry Cecil
Form: 71-261

Broke maiden tag at the second attempt over a mile at Nottigham on easy ground and was disappointing on first two starts this year. At Newbury he was unsuited by the Heavy ground even though his action suggested he should relish it, and was slightly keen. At Newmarket he travelled powerfully through the race but stopped to nothing suggesting the trip was beyond him.
Everything came right for him at Epsom, but as said early I'm not blown away by the strength of that form and didn't scream to me Group winner.

Overview
William Haggas looked to be short of decent 3yo looking at his crop last year, but I think it has transpired that the better one's were late types and Mukhadram is an example of this. With lots to liek about both runs, and with so much more still to come, then he is very much one I'm interested in seeing. Handicap form is well represented here and once again the London Handicap looked to be as strong renewal as usually is, and anything around 12s is on the big side. Even though Juddmonte have 3 runners here, this could still turn into a trappy affair, and if doing so would not surprise to see Goldoni outrun his price and has to be one to look at if able to get 40s+ on the machines.

1pt Win Mukhadram @ 7s
0.5pt Win Rewarded @ 12s
0.2pt Win Goldoni @ 33s

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