Skip to main content

Bahrain Trophy preview

Welcome to the blog Sam Evans, @samevans20, a talented young writer taking a look at today's opener.

------------

1.20 Bahrain Trophy

A race that has been kind to the more fancied horses in recent years, with only one of the last 10 winners being priced in the double figures and only one of the last 6 being bigger than 3/1. Unsurprisingly as a Group 3 contest for 3yo's over 1m5f this proves to be a good trial for the St Leger, with last year's winner of this race, Masked Marvel, going on to win the oldest Classic. Trainer of that horse John Gosden saddles Shantaram in here, who starts as favourite. There is surely a doubt of his participation though, as the soft ground was what was blamed for his more-than-workmanlike maiden victory here back in June, and with those conditions prevailing again today, that would surely be a huge concern.

Valiant still looked as green as grass when winning a York handicap under a superb ride from Ryan Moore. He should have learnt plenty from that, and with the extra three furlongs bound to suit and the champion-elect (if he wants it) jockey back in the saddle he may stretch his unbeaten start to his career to three.

Rewarded has, well, rewarded connections with consistent performances throughout his short career. He's also stayed on well on his last two starts, both over a mile and a quarter, suggesting this step up in trip should suit, though he may now prove susceptible to one of the less exposed rivals.

I backed Yazdi at Royal Ascot and he led for much of the way before tiring late. This smaller field over shorter should suit, but I will steer clear him for the while. [that probably means he wins by 6 lengths hard held].

SELECTION: VALIANT (9/4)

You can read more of Sam's work on his blog.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

hope for investors in the Centaur scandal?

In a breaking story, it has been reported that directors of the failed sports investment fund Centaur have had their assets frozen in order to repay investors. It is believed that managing director Keith Sobey skipped town trying to avoid prosecution however he either naively thought Ireland was a safe enough place to hide or had a lingering feeling of guilt and sat waiting for that knock on the door. Sobey, the name behind Centaur ( read the original story here ), is believed to own four houses, worth more in total than the missing £1.6m. His willingness to sell them to repay investors is likely to keep the matter out of the courts, and at least one other director, Andrew Cork, will apparently follow suit. All this adds weight to anecdotal evidence that the collapse of the fund came down to mismanagement rather than fraudulent deeds. As costs grew (why would you set up a training academy in central London?), margins evaporated and keeping the business afloat went through money like