Skip to main content

2.25 Goldsmiths Handicap preview

Regular contributor Ronan Groome, @ronangroome20, takes on the tricky handicap.

---------------

Goldsmiths Handicap

Once again we have a John Gosden-trained runner with three runs to his name occupying favouritism in a valuable handicap. Nabucco gives the Newmarket trainer another solid chance of course, and is another possible future Group race performer in a handicap, but the theory remains that you won’t get rich if you keep backing them.

The one I like is Royal Ascot winner Fennell Bay, who was able to win over a mile prior to his King George V Stakes triumph. He has been busy this season, this will be his 10th start of the campaign, but he is really consistent and there was so much like about his win at Ascot. He had to come over from a wide draw, got shuffled back just before the straight, was forced to come widest of all and showed plenty of guts to stick his head in front on the line. He went up another 5lb for that win but there could be more to come from him still given that he is a Mark Johnston horse and looks well able to take his racing.

The other interesting runner I like here is Pilgrims Rest, who finished fifth to Fennell Bay at Ascot but may well appreciate coming back in trip here. He was a 16/1 chance at Ascot, but having travelled up with the pace throughout, he came there every chance at the two furlong marker before giving way due to tiredness late in the day. He was two from two in handicaps prior to that and has looked a much improved horse this season. It’s also worth mentioning that he is full brother to Gibraltar Blue, a filly who looked quite useful as a two-year-old when finishing fourth in the Rockfel Stakes.

I don’t like backing two horses in a race unless I really fancy both and the prices are generous. I’ll be backing Fennell Bay as altogether he has the more solid profile. The other ones worth a mention are Razorbill and Greek War. The former looks well worth a try at this trip given the way he finished behind Asatir in his previous race at Windsor. Greek War looked very impressive when winning by six lengths on his seasonal debut but that was only two weeks back, and the ‘bounce’ factor could come into play here.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Wimbledon preview - women

Unfortunately this year I don't have the time to write comprehensive Slam previews anymore so I'll sum this one up pretty quickly - it's all about Serena. 1 - Serena Williams. In incredible form. Since bombing out in R1 of the French Open last year, she has lost just three times - to Kerber (Cincinnati QF), to Stephens (Aus Open QF) and to Azarenka (Doha final). She has won three of the last four Wimbledon finals plus the Olympic gold last year where she dropped just 17 games in six rounds, against opponents which included four former world #1s. All that considered though, I can't have her at 1/2 (1.50) on Betfair. She just has to be opposed. I can't put a finger on who is going to beat her, but I have to side with her prospective opponents. If you want a smokey to put some small change on, try Maria Kirilenko. Her record in the Slam isn't so great but it has been improving - a best result of R4 last year beaten by finalist Radwanska 7-5 in the third, and