Skip to main content

Olympic cycling - men's road race

Welcome to the stage @wheelie1977, a former top Irish cyclist who now focuses on the betting side of professional cycling. He offers these tips for subscription first, and then makes them free a day or so later. His tips throughout recent months on the Giro D'Italia and the Tour de France have been outstanding. You can read more of his excellent work on his website - Wheeliebets.

-----------

MEN'S ROAD RACE

I advised backing Cavendish back in early July and now his price has been swallowed right up so much so that it's almost impossible for the media to see an alternative. However it's short-sighted given the course and the distance and the lack of fire-power in any of the teams of 5 from each country. No doubt if Cavendish gets the run of the race and we see a sprint finish then it's a certainty, almost, that he'll win but if it turns into a Classics type battle, who else is there to look at?

For me the course and distance remind me of a cross between a Tour of Flanders and a Paris-Roubaix without the cobbles. The length of the race cannot be underestimated, it's 250 kilometres, in or around the length of the Monuments in Spring. Riders like Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara spring to mind, not to mind Lars Boom, John Degenkolb, Simon Gerrans and Alexandr Kolobnev. Is it possible that Cavendish will not get a sprint?

I watched Eurosport go over the course and the one thing they both mentioned was the cross-winds on the way out through Richmond, which they've to pass on the way out to Box Hill and going back towards town. Going out might not be so bad however on the way back it's only 20 kilometres to the finish from there to the Mall and after 230 kilometres racing, some very tired bodies will be grimly trying to hold the wheel in front of them. If its a line out driven by Cancellara or worse still they're trying to catch Cancellara, then the cross wind will blow the race to pieces.

Box Hill looks nothing once or twice around the climb, but 9 times around any hill starts to play on the mind and after a tough 3 weeks of the Tour, there will be some very tired bodies. At the likely speeds and with attacks all day long, how can the British control the race? The Classics riders will make their moves, hard and fast each time up those hills, in the hope they break the elastic. Cavendish is then relying on Wiggins and Froome to bring him back to the wheels of the likes of Boonen, Cancellara, Boassen Hagen and others. Incredibly tough racing without doubt!

So it's Tom Boonen I'm turning to for the alternative bet to Cavendish. Winner of the Ronde and Paris-Roubaix this year, Tomeke has taken it easy since, building form to this one day event. I'll be amazed if he's not involved somewhere along the line. His price is far too big with the bookmakers so I'm advising a side bet at 25/1 which is a general price available in Paddy's, BetFred, Blue Square among others.

Advised Bet

Tom Boonen
0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 (1/4 odds Pays 1,2,3)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Villiers Stakes preview

The highlight of summer racing in Sydney is the Villiers Stakes. Tasked with the preview is Mitch Fenton.

-------------------

Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

I’m going to stick with that form line; here’s the horses who ran in the Festival, running today.

1 I'm Imposing (55.5) 20-1
2 [0.1] Estonian Princess (54) 7-1
3 [0.3] Strawberry Boy (57.5) 6-1
5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

Out of all those runs in the Festival, Strawberry Boy was a clear top pick for mine.

He worked very hard out in front with his 1500m to 600m times and was 3L quicker than the average. He was entitled to drop out of the race but instead he fought on dogged…