Skip to main content

Olympic cycling - men's road race

Welcome to the stage @wheelie1977, a former top Irish cyclist who now focuses on the betting side of professional cycling. He offers these tips for subscription first, and then makes them free a day or so later. His tips throughout recent months on the Giro D'Italia and the Tour de France have been outstanding. You can read more of his excellent work on his website - Wheeliebets.

-----------

MEN'S ROAD RACE

I advised backing Cavendish back in early July and now his price has been swallowed right up so much so that it's almost impossible for the media to see an alternative. However it's short-sighted given the course and the distance and the lack of fire-power in any of the teams of 5 from each country. No doubt if Cavendish gets the run of the race and we see a sprint finish then it's a certainty, almost, that he'll win but if it turns into a Classics type battle, who else is there to look at?

For me the course and distance remind me of a cross between a Tour of Flanders and a Paris-Roubaix without the cobbles. The length of the race cannot be underestimated, it's 250 kilometres, in or around the length of the Monuments in Spring. Riders like Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara spring to mind, not to mind Lars Boom, John Degenkolb, Simon Gerrans and Alexandr Kolobnev. Is it possible that Cavendish will not get a sprint?

I watched Eurosport go over the course and the one thing they both mentioned was the cross-winds on the way out through Richmond, which they've to pass on the way out to Box Hill and going back towards town. Going out might not be so bad however on the way back it's only 20 kilometres to the finish from there to the Mall and after 230 kilometres racing, some very tired bodies will be grimly trying to hold the wheel in front of them. If its a line out driven by Cancellara or worse still they're trying to catch Cancellara, then the cross wind will blow the race to pieces.

Box Hill looks nothing once or twice around the climb, but 9 times around any hill starts to play on the mind and after a tough 3 weeks of the Tour, there will be some very tired bodies. At the likely speeds and with attacks all day long, how can the British control the race? The Classics riders will make their moves, hard and fast each time up those hills, in the hope they break the elastic. Cavendish is then relying on Wiggins and Froome to bring him back to the wheels of the likes of Boonen, Cancellara, Boassen Hagen and others. Incredibly tough racing without doubt!

So it's Tom Boonen I'm turning to for the alternative bet to Cavendish. Winner of the Ronde and Paris-Roubaix this year, Tomeke has taken it easy since, building form to this one day event. I'll be amazed if he's not involved somewhere along the line. His price is far too big with the bookmakers so I'm advising a side bet at 25/1 which is a general price available in Paddy's, BetFred, Blue Square among others.

Advised Bet

Tom Boonen
0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 (1/4 odds Pays 1,2,3)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. =============================================== Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe   ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot   Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengt

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur