Skip to main content

Olympic cycling - men's road race

Welcome to the stage @wheelie1977, a former top Irish cyclist who now focuses on the betting side of professional cycling. He offers these tips for subscription first, and then makes them free a day or so later. His tips throughout recent months on the Giro D'Italia and the Tour de France have been outstanding. You can read more of his excellent work on his website - Wheeliebets.

-----------

MEN'S ROAD RACE

I advised backing Cavendish back in early July and now his price has been swallowed right up so much so that it's almost impossible for the media to see an alternative. However it's short-sighted given the course and the distance and the lack of fire-power in any of the teams of 5 from each country. No doubt if Cavendish gets the run of the race and we see a sprint finish then it's a certainty, almost, that he'll win but if it turns into a Classics type battle, who else is there to look at?

For me the course and distance remind me of a cross between a Tour of Flanders and a Paris-Roubaix without the cobbles. The length of the race cannot be underestimated, it's 250 kilometres, in or around the length of the Monuments in Spring. Riders like Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara spring to mind, not to mind Lars Boom, John Degenkolb, Simon Gerrans and Alexandr Kolobnev. Is it possible that Cavendish will not get a sprint?

I watched Eurosport go over the course and the one thing they both mentioned was the cross-winds on the way out through Richmond, which they've to pass on the way out to Box Hill and going back towards town. Going out might not be so bad however on the way back it's only 20 kilometres to the finish from there to the Mall and after 230 kilometres racing, some very tired bodies will be grimly trying to hold the wheel in front of them. If its a line out driven by Cancellara or worse still they're trying to catch Cancellara, then the cross wind will blow the race to pieces.

Box Hill looks nothing once or twice around the climb, but 9 times around any hill starts to play on the mind and after a tough 3 weeks of the Tour, there will be some very tired bodies. At the likely speeds and with attacks all day long, how can the British control the race? The Classics riders will make their moves, hard and fast each time up those hills, in the hope they break the elastic. Cavendish is then relying on Wiggins and Froome to bring him back to the wheels of the likes of Boonen, Cancellara, Boassen Hagen and others. Incredibly tough racing without doubt!

So it's Tom Boonen I'm turning to for the alternative bet to Cavendish. Winner of the Ronde and Paris-Roubaix this year, Tomeke has taken it easy since, building form to this one day event. I'll be amazed if he's not involved somewhere along the line. His price is far too big with the bookmakers so I'm advising a side bet at 25/1 which is a general price available in Paddy's, BetFred, Blue Square among others.

Advised Bet

Tom Boonen
0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 (1/4 odds Pays 1,2,3)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

hope for investors in the Centaur scandal?

In a breaking story, it has been reported that directors of the failed sports investment fund Centaur have had their assets frozen in order to repay investors. It is believed that managing director Keith Sobey skipped town trying to avoid prosecution however he either naively thought Ireland was a safe enough place to hide or had a lingering feeling of guilt and sat waiting for that knock on the door. Sobey, the name behind Centaur ( read the original story here ), is believed to own four houses, worth more in total than the missing £1.6m. His willingness to sell them to repay investors is likely to keep the matter out of the courts, and at least one other director, Andrew Cork, will apparently follow suit. All this adds weight to anecdotal evidence that the collapse of the fund came down to mismanagement rather than fraudulent deeds. As costs grew (why would you set up a training academy in central London?), margins evaporated and keeping the business afloat went through money like