Skip to main content

Swimming Sunday part 1

Great start to the Olympics with Shiwen Ye smashing the world record in the 400IM. It gets us off to a great start : +5.17 units from three units staked.

Women's 100m Butterfly

This is a one-horse race. The American Dana Vollmer is lengths better than these and should give the world record a shake.

If you like backing the likes of Black Caviar and Frankel, then this is a bet for you at around 1.15. It's not for me though.

Men's 100m Breaststroke

Tricky race this. Kosuke Kitajima is going for three Olympic golds in a row in both of the breaststroke events but to be world best for eight years is a feat very rarely achieved. His pre-Games times in 2012 are best of the field, but is he susceptible to someone breaking through at the biggest event of them all?

Cameron van der Burgh set a PB and world best of 2012 in the semis, even beating his best performance from the textile suit era. What's left in the tank for him? The semis looked very tight on paper, so busting a gut was necessary to ensure he reached the final and intimidate some of his rivals. And unlike the races on opening day, he has 24hrs to recover.

There's that element of risk around the South African for me - I'd be a backer at 2.4 and a layer at 1.75, but around evens I don't want to get involved.

Scozzoli and Sprenger (winner of the slower semi, less pressure) might be able to step up a notch but with no value on offer, I'd prefer to sit this one out.

No bet.

Women's 400m Freestyle

Men's 4x100m Free Relay

Analysis of the other two races to be posted after the morning heats.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Wimbledon preview - women

Unfortunately this year I don't have the time to write comprehensive Slam previews anymore so I'll sum this one up pretty quickly - it's all about Serena. 1 - Serena Williams. In incredible form. Since bombing out in R1 of the French Open last year, she has lost just three times - to Kerber (Cincinnati QF), to Stephens (Aus Open QF) and to Azarenka (Doha final). She has won three of the last four Wimbledon finals plus the Olympic gold last year where she dropped just 17 games in six rounds, against opponents which included four former world #1s. All that considered though, I can't have her at 1/2 (1.50) on Betfair. She just has to be opposed. I can't put a finger on who is going to beat her, but I have to side with her prospective opponents. If you want a smokey to put some small change on, try Maria Kirilenko. Her record in the Slam isn't so great but it has been improving - a best result of R4 last year beaten by finalist Radwanska 7-5 in the third, and