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Friday swimming previews

Much better results last night, although I can admit I wasn't expecting to see Lochte beaten twice - once would have been enough for a nice profit. And Kromiwidjojo was impressive, she should be about 1.6 now for the 50m final, so there's still value to be had.

P&L now stands at

BETS 16 (one still open)
TURNOVER (settled) 20.5 units
PROFIT +3.57 units

Womens 200 Back

The two Americans Beisel and Franklin should have a mortgage on this one. Beisel was fastest in the semis with a new PB but it's Franklin who holds favouritism - her time to win the Worlds last year is still over a second better. The 17yo with the size 13 feet has had a hectic schedule and won her semi by almost 1.5 seconds - cruise mode. She had Beisel's measure clearly at the US Trials, expect a repeat here. 1.45 not a straight out price for me, read on for a multi bet...

Mens 100 Fly

Michael Phelps has come up mighty short in this race - he might have the clear best time in the semis but considering he was pipped by Le Clos in the 200 and only beat Cavic by .01 in Beijing, it's unders as far as I'm concerned. Attempted three-peats haven't gone so well this week. There is belief now that Phelps can be beaten - that often provides a boost to opponents. There have also been some ridiculous prices matched in-play, don't be afraid to throw in a 1.03 lay as well.

Lay Phelps around 1.22 risking half a unit. The price should fluctuate enough during the day to get matched even if you are a couple of ticks behind the front price.

Womens 800 Free

Becky Adlington in the 800m was always TeamGB's best chance of a gold in the pool and now is her time to claim it. She has had the wood over her main rival, Dane Lotte Friis for years, with the exception being WC2009 when Adlington refused to wear the now banned non-textile suits. Also in the pack is 15yo American Ledecky, who clipped more than five seconds off her best at the US Trials in June. Did the American team accuse her of taking drugs to achieve that time? Nope, didn't think so. It's quite possible she can go faster again. Adlington has had high expectations of her ever since Beijing and has been handling the pressure exceptionally well, she can do this.

1pt multi - Adlington 800Free / Franklin 200Back - 2.0 or better

Mens 50 Free

Fastest in the semis were defending champ Cesar Cielo and American Cullen Jones, giving hope for a close final to this one-lap dash. But Cielo is a master when it comes to pacing himself for finals. In the last three big championships - Beijing 08, Rome WC 09, Shanghai WC11 - he has won by a relative space (0.13 - 0.38s, doesn't seem like much but it's a big margin at this distance), and it should be odds-on it happens again. It leaves a little bit of a sour taste in the mouth considering he has served a drug ban, but if he's in the field, he's in the betting...

2pts Cielo 2.1 Lads, EV Stan James (bet down to 1.8)

Comments

  1. Surprised you went that big on a 50m race given the small margin for error. I would have thought that laying the favourite would be more profitable in the long run than backing it as the race is a complete lottery really. What are your thoughts on this Scott?

    ReplyDelete
  2. fair comment Zepp, but these guys are specialists. Cielo had won the last two WCs plus the Beijing gold and went through the prelims in his usual style. He deserved to be odds-on.

    ReplyDelete
  3. however I'll admit my staking has been fairly sloppy this week :(

    ReplyDelete

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