Skip to main content

let the athletics begin!

Plenty of activity in the Olympic Stadium tomorrow, but most of it relates to heats and qualifications. The heptathlon gets off to an early start, plus there are two other sets of medals up for grabs on opening night. As with my swimming tips, I tend to bet late - when the field for the final is known and I have venue form to work from, rather than securing ante-post value days or weeks in advance.

Heptathlon

The markets show this as Jess Ennis v Tatyana Chernova but it's not that simple. The reigning Olympic champ is Nataliya Dobrynska who also won this year's world indoor pentathlon title. Her husband and coach died soon after that result causing her to take a short break from training. Since then her season has been fully focused on London, rather than any other multi-discipline event on the schedule in preparation. And she has a history of focusing on the big prizes, when she won in Beijing, her record during the year wasn't anything to get excited about either.

I'd love to see Jess Ennis win gold here, she is the face of the Games for most of Britain and the pressure on her has been huge. But at a best price of 1.8, I have to look elsewhere for value. I'd rather be on Dobrynska whose strengths are the throwing events which are Ennis' weakness. If she can keep up on the other disciplines, her chance of repeating becomes stronger.

0.5pt Dobrynska 7 Ladbrokes (bet down to 6)

Men's Shot Put

Tough to split the big men here. The Americans Cantwell, Hoffa and Whiting lead the way with three men who have all recorded 22m put this year but Storl (2011 WC), Majewski (2008 gold) and Armstrong (>22m last yr) have valid hopes. I think I'd rather watch qualifying in the morning first before identifying a bet.

No bet - yet

Womens 10000m

Cheruiyot and Dibaba rule the roost here, miles out in front of the market. Can't get involved.

No bet

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2019

We're back again for the greatest race on turf, the world's richest staying race and the only race in the world which creates a public holiday for millions of locals.




Once again a fine international field has been assembled and it's worth a deep look at the race. So get a cuppa and find a comfortable seat to plough your way through my preview!

--------------------------------

The Lexus Melbourne Cup
Group 1, Handicap, 3200m
AUD 7,750,000
Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT
Broadcasters - Network 10 (AUS), Racing.com (worldwide), SkySportsRacing (UK)


1. Cross Counter
Trainer - Charlie Appleby (one previous Cup win)
Jockey - William Buick
Breeding - Teofilo - Waitress
Drawn 5, Weight 57.5kg

Last year's impressive winner who doesn't get the 3yo weight advantage this time. Won first up at Meydan in March but has run fourth, third, fourth in the big set weights staying races in England and Ireland, never quite making it as the next big staying star. While running close behind Stradivar…

hope for investors in the Centaur scandal?

In a breaking story, it has been reported that directors of the failed sports investment fund Centaur have had their assets frozen in order to repay investors. It is believed that managing director Keith Sobey skipped town trying to avoid prosecution however he either naively thought Ireland was a safe enough place to hide or had a lingering feeling of guilt and sat waiting for that knock on the door.

Sobey, the name behind Centaur (read the original story here), is believed to own four houses, worth more in total than the missing £1.6m. His willingness to sell them to repay investors is likely to keep the matter out of the courts, and at least one other director, Andrew Cork, will apparently follow suit.

All this adds weight to anecdotal evidence that the collapse of the fund came down to mismanagement rather than fraudulent deeds. As costs grew (why would you set up a training academy in central London?), margins evaporated and keeping the business afloat went through money like a…