Skip to main content

let the athletics begin!

Plenty of activity in the Olympic Stadium tomorrow, but most of it relates to heats and qualifications. The heptathlon gets off to an early start, plus there are two other sets of medals up for grabs on opening night. As with my swimming tips, I tend to bet late - when the field for the final is known and I have venue form to work from, rather than securing ante-post value days or weeks in advance.

Heptathlon

The markets show this as Jess Ennis v Tatyana Chernova but it's not that simple. The reigning Olympic champ is Nataliya Dobrynska who also won this year's world indoor pentathlon title. Her husband and coach died soon after that result causing her to take a short break from training. Since then her season has been fully focused on London, rather than any other multi-discipline event on the schedule in preparation. And she has a history of focusing on the big prizes, when she won in Beijing, her record during the year wasn't anything to get excited about either.

I'd love to see Jess Ennis win gold here, she is the face of the Games for most of Britain and the pressure on her has been huge. But at a best price of 1.8, I have to look elsewhere for value. I'd rather be on Dobrynska whose strengths are the throwing events which are Ennis' weakness. If she can keep up on the other disciplines, her chance of repeating becomes stronger.

0.5pt Dobrynska 7 Ladbrokes (bet down to 6)

Men's Shot Put

Tough to split the big men here. The Americans Cantwell, Hoffa and Whiting lead the way with three men who have all recorded 22m put this year but Storl (2011 WC), Majewski (2008 gold) and Armstrong (>22m last yr) have valid hopes. I think I'd rather watch qualifying in the morning first before identifying a bet.

No bet - yet

Womens 10000m

Cheruiyot and Dibaba rule the roost here, miles out in front of the market. Can't get involved.

No bet

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…