Men's Long Jump preview

It's safe to say this is not a classic generation of long jumpers - there's no Bob Beamon, Carl Lewis or Mike Powell here. On this year's best efforts, there are 13 guys within 12cm (8.24-8.35m), and those who have PBs greater than 8.50m have a range of queries against them. So we'll either get someone smash their PB to win by a foot or it could go right down to the wire. Do we go for the limited jumper who is consistent at about 8.20, the erratic guy with the potential to jump 8.60 after a series of fouls and sub-8m leaps, or even a new guy coming through with the potential to improve his best? Might have to go for a couple of guys here.

Sebastian Bayer set an outdoor PB just a month ago in the European Championships, 8.34, and importantly, with the lowest wind assistance of the top leaps this season. He also has an indoor PB of 8.71, so is capable of better. In form at the right time, and capable of going further - good signs. His qualifying efforts weren't brilliant, but that adds to the price so it's worth the risk.

For the blowout chance, I'm going to have a tiny wager on Aussie Henry Frayne. PBs this year both indoor and outdoor, tied for silver at the World Indoors in March and will have much lesser pressure on him than his countryman Mitchell Watt. He's only young, relatively new on the circuit, a PB to challenge for the podium is not out of the question. Each-way at 25s or bigger, paying three places is worth a few coins.

BETS 1pt ew Bayer 10 Sportingbet (paying 1/5 1,2,3), bet down to 8.
0.1pt ew Frayne 51 Boylesports (paying 1/5 1,2,3), bet down to 26

Comments

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog