Saturday athletics previews

I'll add to these throughout the day, so check back later for updates.

Women's High Jump

This event has lost its sparkle without Vlasic (injured) and Friedrich (DNQ, out of form this year) so it may not take an outstanding height ti claim gold. Chicherova sets the standard - current world champion and bronze medallist from Beijing. Her only blip outdoors was at the Crystal Palace Diamond League event which I'm prepared to forgive with the horrible weather that weekend. She has the two best outdoor jumps of the season (2.03 and 2.02) and recorded several 2m jumps during the indoor season as well (including 2.06m).

American Chaunte Lowe is the main danger, the market see this as a real two-horse race. Lowe has picked off four Diamond League events this season but has only cleared two metres sporadically - 3/10 competitions outdoors, 1/8 indoors in 2012 compared to Chicherova's 3/5 outdoors and 5/6 under a roof.

If there's one competitor to set a new personal best and pick up a medal, it might be Brigetta Barrett. The 21yo recently cracked 2m for the first time, the excitement of her first Olympics might put more spring in her step.

Can't see the favourite being beaten but in high jump, they should never be too short a price.

1pt Chicherova 1.8 BetVictor, BlueSq, Coral… (bet down to 1.75)

Men's Javelin

The odds-on favourite Vitezslav Vesely looks very tough to beat after throwing this year's longest throw, 88.34, with his only attempt in qualifying. Nobody else in the field has thrown within two metres of that in 2012. However, that is his PB surpassing a throw of 88.11 two months ago in Oslo. Apart from that, he is back in the mid-80m range. Can he be relied upon to do it again? History is full of athletes who hit great heights in qualifying but then come up short when the pressure is on.

Thorkildsen is the star of this event, he's going for three Olympic golds in a row, but he has had a string of injury problems this year. His second throw in qualifying was just off his best for the season. He's a big time thrower with numerous 90m+ throws - can he pull one out in the heat of the final?

The other interesting 'runner' for me is Pyatnytsya - seven of his top eight throws are this season, taking a couple of Diamond League wins along the way. Bet365 have him at 21 with other bookies as short as 9.

Not overly keen to get involved here, favourite not quite short enough to lay.

Men's 5000m

No real opinion on this, to top the Games off I'd like to see Mo Farah complete the double. It would leave the home nation with a real buzz.

Women's 800m

The conundrum which is Caster Semenya. The world champion of 2009 is in the red here against a quality field, is it all just down to the preliminary races? Her semi-final was fastest because the Kenyan Jepkosgei went out hard, almost three seconds faster than Jelimo's heat. It's not as if Semenya was running like Rudisha - set the pace and dominate. If the race is tactical, then anyone can win it.

Jelimo has beaten the South African hermaphrodite both times they have met this season. She hasn't been setting blistering times, preferring to do what she needed to do to reach the final. Savinova is the reigning world champion and won her semi-final comfortably as well.

Lay the favourite or back Jelimo? At 5.5 or even 6, I'll go with the Kenyan but I want to be against the favourite here - way too short.

1pt Jelimo 6 Sportingbet (bet down to 5)

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog