Sunday athletics previews

Womens 400m

Very interesting race this. Sanya Richards-Ross is the odds-on favourite, but has a history of choking in major events. Antonina Krivoshapka went off like a scalded cat in the semi and fell in to record the fastest time of the round, marginally ahead of Trotter and Williams-Mills. In the final, the Russian is drawn in five, one inside Richards-Ross. So one goes too fast, and the other one tries to match her and chokes… or is that too simple? I was most impressed with Amantle Montsho in the semi, a very conservative run just pressing McCorory (who was flat out) in the closing stages. Considering Montsho is the reigning World Champion, she's a massive price at some of the prices quoted. Ohuruogu might just ride the crest of the British wave of success, will have her running for us in a lay of the two favs.

Lay Richards-Ross (around 1.6) risking one unit on Betfair

Include Krivoshapka in the lay if under 5.0 (use Payout function to level up the risk)

1pt Back Montsho 13 WillHill, 11 BetVictor (bet down to 8)

Mens 100m

Bolt and Blake both had plenty in hand in the heats - was Bolt protecting an injury concern, or just his usual playing around? I backed Blake several weeks ago at a much bigger price, wouldn't be keen to take the current 2.5 unless I saw something more in the semis. Can't see anyone getting close to them, and predicted rain may affect any crack at the world record. The track is quick, a dry race with Bolt at 100% could give the record a shake.

No bet for now

My aths figures to date:
BETS 3 : P&L : -2.7

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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