Skip to main content

swimming preview Saturday

A blank drawn on Friday, so any profit from the week will now be minimal as pickings are very slim on the final day.

P&L now stands at

BETS 19 (one still open)
TURNOVER (settled) 24 units
PROFIT +0.07 units


Womens 50 Free

Kromiwidjojo won her semi easily, by 0.38s, and now her price has crashed. She should have been 1.5 or so after her 100m gold but for some reason, she stayed around the evens mark. Now she's 1.3 and that's about right.

Already advised - 1 unit Kromiwidjojo 2.1 (Thursday)

No bet

Mens 1500 Free

Sun Yang should win this by plenty, he has had 10 seconds on his rivals for a couple of years, although these guys don't tend to swim the distance that often. Can't see any w/o Yang markets except for the illiquid one on Betfair, so have to pass.

No bet

Womens 4x100 Medley Relay

The Americans might have only come in fourth in their semi-final, but don't be fooled. They will make at least three changes to their line-up and should win this easily, having taken gold at 100m in two of the four strokes and second by a fingernail in another. Australia have had an ordinary meet and although their one gold came from a women's relay, I can't see them adding to that column.

No bet

Mens 4x100 Medley Relay

The market expects this to be an easy 1-2 for the USA followed by Australia, and it's hard to disagree. The Americans could replace all of their heat swimmers, while Australia will swap at least a couple. The race for third though looks more appetising with a few chances. GB won their morning heat, beating Australia who coasted in - you have to stuff up pretty badly to miss out on the final, the depth isn't like individual races. GB will probably have one substitution - Jamieson in for the breaststroke, replacing Benson. Japan looked to be full strength in the heats, so apart from giving it everything, I can't see too much improvement to come from them. The pressure has been overwhelming on the Brits in the pool, but this is one event where they won't be expected to claim a medal. They could just surprise and claim third.

0.5pt GB to claim a medal 4.0 William Hill (bet down to 3.5)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Wimbledon preview - women

Unfortunately this year I don't have the time to write comprehensive Slam previews anymore so I'll sum this one up pretty quickly - it's all about Serena. 1 - Serena Williams. In incredible form. Since bombing out in R1 of the French Open last year, she has lost just three times - to Kerber (Cincinnati QF), to Stephens (Aus Open QF) and to Azarenka (Doha final). She has won three of the last four Wimbledon finals plus the Olympic gold last year where she dropped just 17 games in six rounds, against opponents which included four former world #1s. All that considered though, I can't have her at 1/2 (1.50) on Betfair. She just has to be opposed. I can't put a finger on who is going to beat her, but I have to side with her prospective opponents. If you want a smokey to put some small change on, try Maria Kirilenko. Her record in the Slam isn't so great but it has been improving - a best result of R4 last year beaten by finalist Radwanska 7-5 in the third, and