Skip to main content

swimming preview Saturday

A blank drawn on Friday, so any profit from the week will now be minimal as pickings are very slim on the final day.

P&L now stands at

BETS 19 (one still open)
TURNOVER (settled) 24 units
PROFIT +0.07 units


Womens 50 Free

Kromiwidjojo won her semi easily, by 0.38s, and now her price has crashed. She should have been 1.5 or so after her 100m gold but for some reason, she stayed around the evens mark. Now she's 1.3 and that's about right.

Already advised - 1 unit Kromiwidjojo 2.1 (Thursday)

No bet

Mens 1500 Free

Sun Yang should win this by plenty, he has had 10 seconds on his rivals for a couple of years, although these guys don't tend to swim the distance that often. Can't see any w/o Yang markets except for the illiquid one on Betfair, so have to pass.

No bet

Womens 4x100 Medley Relay

The Americans might have only come in fourth in their semi-final, but don't be fooled. They will make at least three changes to their line-up and should win this easily, having taken gold at 100m in two of the four strokes and second by a fingernail in another. Australia have had an ordinary meet and although their one gold came from a women's relay, I can't see them adding to that column.

No bet

Mens 4x100 Medley Relay

The market expects this to be an easy 1-2 for the USA followed by Australia, and it's hard to disagree. The Americans could replace all of their heat swimmers, while Australia will swap at least a couple. The race for third though looks more appetising with a few chances. GB won their morning heat, beating Australia who coasted in - you have to stuff up pretty badly to miss out on the final, the depth isn't like individual races. GB will probably have one substitution - Jamieson in for the breaststroke, replacing Benson. Japan looked to be full strength in the heats, so apart from giving it everything, I can't see too much improvement to come from them. The pressure has been overwhelming on the Brits in the pool, but this is one event where they won't be expected to claim a medal. They could just surprise and claim third.

0.5pt GB to claim a medal 4.0 William Hill (bet down to 3.5)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Villiers Stakes preview

The highlight of summer racing in Sydney is the Villiers Stakes. Tasked with the preview is Mitch Fenton.

-------------------

Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

I’m going to stick with that form line; here’s the horses who ran in the Festival, running today.

1 I'm Imposing (55.5) 20-1
2 [0.1] Estonian Princess (54) 7-1
3 [0.3] Strawberry Boy (57.5) 6-1
5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

Out of all those runs in the Festival, Strawberry Boy was a clear top pick for mine.

He worked very hard out in front with his 1500m to 600m times and was 3L quicker than the average. He was entitled to drop out of the race but instead he fought on dogged…