Skip to main content

Thursday swimming action

Close, but too few cigars over the last couple of days. We press on...

P&L now stands at

BETS 13
TURNOVER 18 units
PROFIT -1.51 units

Mens 200 Back
Mens 200 IM
These two finals are just 30mins apart for Lochte, who has known the programme for many months and prepared accordingly. The US Trials had the same schedule, there he won the backstroke by 0.34secs, but lost the IM by 0.09secs to Phelps. The trail of gold for Lochte hasn't quite worked out as brilliantly as it could have, but then again, we are comparing him to the GOAT - Michael Phelps and his effort in Beijing.

Lochte has always had the measure of his rivals in the backstroke, well, since Peirsol retired anyway. But he only needs to be a tiny bit off his best to be troubled by Clary or Irie - they have the times to stretch him, it will come down to whether that edge is off his performances or not. In the shorter medley, it comes down to that man Phelps who could just be inspired by landing more medals yesterday - his 200 free leg in the relay was faster than all bar Agnel so he is very close to his best form.

Safest play for me is lay Lochte in both races, risking one unit each time. If he is denied one gold, we are ahead. If unable to lay, I'd be backing both Clary & Irie in the backstroke, and just Phelps in the medley.

LAY Lochte 200IM around 1.4 to lose one unit
LAY Lochte 200 back around 1.35 to lose one unit

Womens 100 Free

Ranomi Kromowidjojo is the premier female sprint swimmer and is priced accordingly around 1.22. A better idea would be to back her for the 50m event, with the presumption being a win will shorten that price too.

1pt Kromowidjojo to win 50M freestyle (NOT THIS EVENT) 2.3 Bet365, take better than evens elsewhere

I'd be tempted by 3.0 or better on the Australian Schlanger in a w/o favourite market if any firm is willing to offer it.

Womens 200 Breast

Rebecca Soni will rub salt into our wounds from the 100m event where she was just touched out by hacking up in this one. A world record in the semis puts her two seconds ahead of her rivals.

No bet

Comments

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...
Post a Comment
Read more

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...
33 comments
Read more

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...
14 comments
Read more