Wednesday aths previews

Quick write-up, I'm on Ch 498 (Primetime on Sky platform) tonight at 7pm in the punters show.

W400m Hurdles

Natalya Antyukh is favourite here but I fear she has shown her cards too soon. She ran her fastest time for two years in the semi, and she'll need to better that again to win the final. Lashinda Demus holds a 6:1 record over the Russian in finals, and has a history of taking at least a second off her time for the final.

At around 9/4 she is a great bet.

2pts Demus 3.4 Bet365, Sportingbet (bet down to 2.8)

W Long Jump

Brittney Reese is clear favourite but struggled to clear qualifying. If she jumps 7.15, she wins. But that's a big if at major events and there's a pack of wolves baying at her heels. Deloach is the one coming through to put pressure on her, while the eastern bloc of Nazarova, Sokolova and Mironchyk-Ivanova should ensure the winner needs to jump 6.85m at least. And then there's Proctor for the home nation.

I'm willing to risk Reece at around evens with a small play on Deloach.

Lay Reece at 2.2 or lower (may need to let this run in-play) on Betfair, risking one unit.

0.5pts Back Deloach 10 Stan James (9 Lads, bet down to 7)

Women's 200

Felix wins easily, she is like Frankel. Richards-Ross to take silver, there are a few w/o Felix markets out there.

1pt Richards-Ross (w/o Felix) 5/2 Paddys, Ladbrokes

Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2022

A competitive edition of the Melbourne Cup without being a great one. The La Nina weather cycle has made a mess of sporting events down the east coast in recent weeks and Flemington has not escaped that. It did race very well on Saturday considering the conditions, so fingers crossed that continues. At this stage it seems like the track will be Soft 7/Heavy 8 - rain is forecast, hopefully not enough for the track to deteriorate but also not warm or windy enough for proper drying weather as you'd normally see on the sand profile track. There are only two international visitors in the field, Deauville Legend and Without A Fight, while another pair, Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal, will make their local debuts having been purchased for Australian syndicates. So the local moaners get their 'mostly locals' race. I think I'd prefer higher class myself but hey... Slightly different format this year, enjoy reading, bet responsibly, yada yada yada... ------------------------------------

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