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Cambridgeshire preview - Trends Analysis

One of the toughest things I find about adjusting to UK racing is the willingness to hold huge field handicaps. The way I like to do my form, it would take a day just to go through the field! Thankfully, some folk revel in this type of race, arise @Sir_Back2Lay with his trends analysis

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The Cambridgeshire

With 35 runners this is no easy task but the trends are extremely useful to narrow down the field in the Cambridgeshire. If we go through the main trends, keeping it strict, there is a great deal of value around.

∙ Aged 6 or younger
∙ Carrying 8-7 to 9-3
∙ Officially rated 91 to 102
∙ Has run 4 to 7 times in 2012
∙ Finished in the first 4 in a class 2 handicap last time
∙ Posted highest RPR of past 12 months on last start
∙ Has won at class 2 level or above (at worst placed in a class 2)
∙ Won over 1M 2F
∙ Won a race with 14+ runners
∙ Ran in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury
∙ Finished in first 5 in Zetland Gold Cup and/or Piper Heidsieck Champagne H'cap
∙ Trained by Hughie Morrison or Jim Goldie
∙ Drawn low to middle
∙ Hold up horses favoured on softer
∙ Horse that race prominently favoured on faster ground

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 5 handicaps:- This seems a solid trend to follow meaning you are looking for horses that are not too exposed and still have some progression left. This would discount Najvo Chief, Boom N Bust and Prince of Johannes. The last named actually won this race last season, a feat that has not been done since Rambo’s Hall. The going is very unlikely to be fast tomorrow and that would certainly count against Boom and Bust too.

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F:- Another strong trend and this really can be vital because you need a horse that has proven stamina. This is usually run at a fast pace and the stiff 9f, especially on tomorrows good ground, really does take some getting. This is a negative against Fury, Excellent Guest, Swiftly Done, Chil The Kite, Anderiego, Levitate, Stevie Thunder and Bronze Angel.

Now two of those listed are currently favourite and 3rd favourite and at the current prices of 10/1 and 12/1, there is very little value in them. Chil The Kite and Bronze Angel also fail badly on the pedigree trends, Bronze Angel has some stamina on the dam side but the sire has only produced milers at best. Chill The Kite holds some stamina from his sire but the dam side is all about speed.

9 of 10 winners had won a race with 14+ runners:- Another strong trend, showing that your horse must be able to handle the hustle and bustle of large fields. Now this trend must be viewed relative to the race, since several of this have run well in large field handicaps. But still this is a negative against Mijhaar, Spanish Duke, Burano, Mull Of Killough, Dragonera, Swiftly Done, Chil The Kite, Postscript, Anderiego, Silvery Moon, Stevie Thunder and Bronze Angel.

I wouldn’t be using this trend as gospel but it does help to create a profile of each runner. Stevie Thunder came 2nd in this race last season but he is now a year older with little progression left in him. The Racing Post have put up Postscript but he fails badly on the following trend. The last 8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap last time (2 exceptions ran in a class 3). He won a class 4 last time out and has not shown enough to warrant winning a highly competitive class 2 of his current mark. Mijaar is carrying 9-8lbs so that really is a massive negative against him, with this stat to prove it; Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-2-27. He does hold some strong form against some classy sorts such as Gatewood but he is priced up accordingly and again is holding zero value in that price of 14/1. All horses rated above 103 are up against it, with their record standing at: 0-5-46.

Mull Of Killough is not good enough for such a race, Burano certainly has the pedigree to show up well but is a small type. Spanish Duke is another with stamina on his side but is a very in and out performer.

9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that year:- This is the final solid trend and we can include the following as negatives. Navajo Chief, Start Right, Edmaaj, Arabian Star, Credit Swap, Postscript, Silvery Moon, Licence To Till, Fury, Anderiego and Levitate.

Fury also fails due to being top weight, their record stands at: 050000000000(0-0-12). Navajo Chief is failing on another trend along with Postscript, Silver Moon and Credit Swap. Not mentioned the others because they have some solid form in the book. Credit Swap is making his seasonal appearance on the flat in this race. He actually won the race two years back but is now a 7yo, horses older than 6yo hold a very poor record.

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months on previous start:- 80% is a figure that’s hard to argue with, again not a trend to follow blind but this is a negative against. Navajo Chief, Start Right, Arabian Star, Credit Swap, Silvery Moon, Licence To Till, Fury, Levitate, Boom And Bust, Prince Of Johanne, Spanish Duke, Mull Of Killough, Dragonera, Excellent Guest, Bancnuanaheireann, Swiftly Done, Making Eyes, Talk About, Man Of Action, Stevie Thunder.

This trend shows again that you need an improving type that is in form, so if we switch it and look at which horses fit the trend. Edmaaj, Postscript, Anderiego, Mijhaar, Burano, King's Warrior, Loving Spirit, Mukhadram, Jack´s Revenge, Chil The Kite, Rewarded, Bronze Angel.

Plenty of nice types in that list including the favourite Mukhadram, a lightly raced colt from the handicap king William Haggas. He seems to have the perfect profile for such a race but he has failed to win a 10f race and could not win a class 3 LTO. Off since July he obviously has either been readied for the race or has encountered some training problems. The current price of 10/1 holds very little value for a horse that I feel is one paced towards the end of his races. He might prove me wrong tomorrow but a plodder is not what you want in this race.

Kings Warrior is a very interesting runner who fits a lot of the trends, has the right pedigree and has the handy Michael J M Murphy taking off a handy 5lbs off his back. An impressive winner over 10f at York LTO, he has been kept fresh for this race and is a decent price to boot.

Bronze Angel fails badly on the pedigree front along with Chil The Kite as already stated but Anderiego is another who has stamina doubts. Edmaaj and Jack’s Revenge won’t have any problems seeing out the trip, neither will Rewarded but Loving Sprit does not have the best profile.

Two not really mentioned in detail are Start Right and Man of Action, both Godolphin horses hold some sort of chance but Man of Action falls short on his pedigree and Start Right has had plenty of chances off his current mark.

The last one I need to mention is the French raider Talk About who has won over 10f, ran in class 2 LTO and has won a race with 14+ runners. Pedigree is not the strongest by far in this but its not a negative.

Pedigree: - Now I have mentioned pedigree and stamina a few times, so I will list my negatives and positives in the race using 20+ years of pedigree stats.

Positives:- Mijhaar, Talk About, Silvery Moon, Making Eyes, Anderiego, Levitate, Swiftly Done, Arabian Star, Jack´s Revenge, Bancnuanaheireann, Mukhadram, Postscript, King's Warrior, Credit Swap, Dragonera, Edmaaj, Boom And Bust, Navajo Chief, Start Right and Prince Of Johanne.

Negatives:- Chill The Kite, Bronze Angel, Stevie Thunder, Man Of Action, Mull Of Killough, Fury, Rewarded, Burano and Spanish Duke.

More positives than negatives but yet again Bronze Angel and Chil The Kite pop up in the red bracket. Chill The Kite is still a danger considering the trainer, jockey and sire but it would be a saver at best.

Pace:- Most of the pace is low to middle here but wouldn’t totally discount the high numbers. The main pace should come from (2) Boom And Bust (10) Licence To Till (11) Arabian Star and (33) Fury.

Below I have priced the race up according to the trends, pedigree stats and recent form.

Betting forecast:- Kings Warrior 9/1 - Jack´s Revenge 10/1 - Talk About 12/1 - Edmaaj 14/1 - Mukhadram 14/1 - Making Eyes 16/1 - Mijhaar 18/1 - Loving Spirit 20/1 - Arabian Star 20/1 - Bancnuanaheireann 20/1 –Dragonera 22/1 - Burano 22/1 - Start Right 25/1 - Spanish Duke 25/1 - Man of Action 28/1 - Anderiego 28/1 - Rewarded 28/1 - Chil The Kite 28/1 - Bronze Angel 33/1 - Licence To Till –33/1 - Boom And Bust 33/1 - Levitate 33/1 - Swiftly Done 33/1 - Silvery Moon - 40/1 - Postscript 40/1- Credit Swap 40/1 - Stevie Thunder 40/1 - Prince Of Johanne 50/1 - Fury 50/1 - Mull Of Killough 50/1- Spas Dancer 50/1 - Navajo Chief 50/1 - Moran Gra 66/1 - Excellent Guest 66/1 - Double Dealer 66/1

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