Skip to main content

Matron Stakes preview

Feature racing galore tomorrow, Melbourne, Sydney, Haydock, Leopardstown and probably numerous other places I've missed. Jon da Silva @creamontop looks across the Irish Sea at the feature race for the fillies and mares.....

--------------

The Matron Stakes

Mile race for fillies and mares which is pretty easy - back the French horse. In the absence of a French dispute the quality of Fillies and Mares and think you could clever and avoid picking one. Then pick the best older horse as 3 year olds in a good year are fetishised to too short odds. That's how I do it.

None of which really helps in the Matron.

Assumes middling ground.

Alanza btn/behind by Emulous and Maybe. Arguably best ever last time chasing Strong Suit and ignoring runaway leader. 10/1 Arguments for.

Ballybacka Lady another one beaten by Emulous and without any obvious reasons to come from that. Close up to Duntle two starts back 20/1 Chance not obvious

Chachamaidee Been in good form and but for last race which reads as muddling from the book might be shorter 7/1 consistent

Emulous pretty solid till last run. 2 months off and back here as favourite. last year's good winner from a subsequent Group 1 winner (Together in US at Keeneland). 11/4 probably worthy Fav

Marvada generally been close to a few of these but well beaten by others 50/1

After [thought] been hammered in sprints now tries a mile. 33/1 Good luck.

Duntle beloved of Nick Mordin and winner of 3 of last 4. Only loss this year 1st group race she tried to a non inspiring type. 4/1 seems a tad short for me given others have some Group 1 and 2 form.

Ishvana steadily progressive including a large field group 3 at Ascot just nothing that screams she will step further 14/1 One that nags at me without quite pulling the bet trigger.

La Collina lovely 2 year old form beating Power and enhancing Maybe's reputation 25/1 if you still believe

Maybe [Not] returns to a Mile having tried everything else. Fared better than Alanza behind Giofra (french filly!) 13/2 for true believers

Which leaves Laugh Out Loud which bizarrely I am tipping at a sporting 10s. Yes she's 3. Yes she's coming off a shocker. I just think she's the best form this year when beating Mashoora. She won in France in one of those short straight races albeit handed an easy lead or doing a Buick as the French now call what they used to call doing a Dettori. She gets Murtagh which is a handy replacement for Buick. Like Emulous you have to ignore last time but at 10/1 I'm happy to be wrong 9 times in 10.

If any of this lot comes for the Sun Chariot I suspect the winner will be none of these and the likely French or Elusive Kate, the 3 year old you can believe in.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...