Skip to main content

Ryder Cup preview

A bit slow off the mark with this, but we're not expecting prices to change too much on Day 1 anyway, so no harm being patient. Assessing the Ryder Cup for the blog are the experts at Priomha, @priomha, the Australia-based sports trading fund - regulated, transparent and profitable.

---------------

RYDER CUP PREVIEW

One of the great fallacies of the sporting world is that the Ryder Cup is a "team" event. It is a team event in terms of who wins and loses (overall) and that you get to share beers with more than just your caddy, but in terms of execution of rounds it boils down to the individual and it is upon this premise that we have based our analysis and investments.

The foursomes (alternate shot) is the only format that has some dependence on your colleague - even this is a tenuous call at the elite level as it is not as if the pairings have a 16 handicapper and a scratch player where every second shot is from the rough. Worse case scenario is that the longer hitters maybe have to hit longer approaches as their partner is short off the tee (and vice versa). So ultimately we believe it comes down to who has the best golfers on their team and for this reason we think the USA represent great value at $1.80*.

*USA will probably drift a little bit after Day 1 so if you want to keep your powder dry until then do so, otherwise set and forget if trading is not your preferred method.

That is the broad brush summary of the Ryder Cup this year...now for a little detail.

Day 1 - expect a tight opening day with only a point separating the teams We expect the morning session of Day 1 (Foursomes) to go to the USA. They will start with familiar pairings and with typical Yankee bravado come out swinging. The afternoon session of Day 1 (Fourballs) will give the Europeans the opportunity to bridge the gap. Look for there to be only a point in it at the end of Day 1.

Day 2 - USA to win the day and the overall match to be all square or with the USA having a lead of 2 points

We expect the morning session of Day 2 (Foursomes) to go the same way as Day 1 with the USA taking the points. The afternoon session of Day 2 (Fourballs) will see the opportunity for the USA to change their pairings from Day 1 and in doing so will secure an improved performance from the previous day. For Europe to win the Cup they will need to be a 2.5+ points in front going into the final day. We can't see that happening.

Day 3 - USA to take advantage of their home ground advantage and more talent and win the singles

The USA have the stronger team and we see this being the day where they can assert their superiority.

Learn more about the company on their website

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…