Skip to main content

Ryder Cup preview

A bit slow off the mark with this, but we're not expecting prices to change too much on Day 1 anyway, so no harm being patient. Assessing the Ryder Cup for the blog are the experts at Priomha, @priomha, the Australia-based sports trading fund - regulated, transparent and profitable.

---------------

RYDER CUP PREVIEW

One of the great fallacies of the sporting world is that the Ryder Cup is a "team" event. It is a team event in terms of who wins and loses (overall) and that you get to share beers with more than just your caddy, but in terms of execution of rounds it boils down to the individual and it is upon this premise that we have based our analysis and investments.

The foursomes (alternate shot) is the only format that has some dependence on your colleague - even this is a tenuous call at the elite level as it is not as if the pairings have a 16 handicapper and a scratch player where every second shot is from the rough. Worse case scenario is that the longer hitters maybe have to hit longer approaches as their partner is short off the tee (and vice versa). So ultimately we believe it comes down to who has the best golfers on their team and for this reason we think the USA represent great value at $1.80*.

*USA will probably drift a little bit after Day 1 so if you want to keep your powder dry until then do so, otherwise set and forget if trading is not your preferred method.

That is the broad brush summary of the Ryder Cup this year...now for a little detail.

Day 1 - expect a tight opening day with only a point separating the teams We expect the morning session of Day 1 (Foursomes) to go to the USA. They will start with familiar pairings and with typical Yankee bravado come out swinging. The afternoon session of Day 1 (Fourballs) will give the Europeans the opportunity to bridge the gap. Look for there to be only a point in it at the end of Day 1.

Day 2 - USA to win the day and the overall match to be all square or with the USA having a lead of 2 points

We expect the morning session of Day 2 (Foursomes) to go the same way as Day 1 with the USA taking the points. The afternoon session of Day 2 (Fourballs) will see the opportunity for the USA to change their pairings from Day 1 and in doing so will secure an improved performance from the previous day. For Europe to win the Cup they will need to be a 2.5+ points in front going into the final day. We can't see that happening.

Day 3 - USA to take advantage of their home ground advantage and more talent and win the singles

The USA have the stronger team and we see this being the day where they can assert their superiority.

Learn more about the company on their website

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. =============================================== Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe   ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot   Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengt

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...