Skip to main content

US Open men's final preview

Normally my tennis work on Grand Slams is exclusive to TheShark.com.au but I'm not sure where he's gotten to today, this isn't yet on site. So here it is....

---------------

Murray v Djokovic

Hopes for a long, arduous second semi between Djokovic and Ferrer were dashed for Andy Murray fans when the defending champion returned to the court after a night's rest and walloped the Spaniard pretty quickly. The debate about Murray having more rest than Djokovic is now irrelevant.

So now we have the match-up of the post-invincible Djokovic versus the post-monkey-off-the-back Murray. The slate stands at 9-6 to Djokovic but it's this year's contests that concern me most. 3-2 in favour of Nole (if you include the fairly meaningless Boodles exhibition pre Wimbledon) with two clashes in the majors - Djokovic winning 7-5 in the fifth in the Aussie semi-final, and Murray winning 7-5 7-5 in the Olympic semi. Ivan Lendl came on board for Murray between those matches and the mysterious behind-the-scenes issue for Djokovic emerged amid them too. The first event I put great importance on, the latter could be the mountain or the molehill - you can't give it a lot of credence without more evidence, but it's clear that Novak isn't as invincible as he was in 2011.

This will be Andy's fifth crack at a Slam final. In his first three, he didn't claim a set. At Wimbledon, he took the first set. At the Olympics, by beating Djokovic in the semi and thumping Federer in the final, he broke through that wall emphatically.

I said a fortnight ago I liked Murray to win the lot and that still applies. He needs to dictate the play early and strangle the life out of the match, it's too hard to come from behind against a player like Djokovic who can maintain his tempo for five hours plus.

I'm backing Andy straight out to win the match, if you still don't have faith in the guy, then make it a back-to-lay trade. Back pre-match at around 3.3, set up the lay trade at around 2.0 (shorter if you think he's a bit of a choker), and remember to hit Keep, for the unmatched bet to go in-play. How you stake it is up to you, either take your stake back and let the profit ride on Murray, or use the 'Payout' function to level up the book to the cent (enter the exact amount you would get back from the Murray bet - i.e. £20 at 3.3 = £66).

[ERROR EDITED re previous finals]

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term ' Ponzi scheme ' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up. So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done. T