Skip to main content

US Open men's final preview

Normally my tennis work on Grand Slams is exclusive to TheShark.com.au but I'm not sure where he's gotten to today, this isn't yet on site. So here it is....

---------------

Murray v Djokovic

Hopes for a long, arduous second semi between Djokovic and Ferrer were dashed for Andy Murray fans when the defending champion returned to the court after a night's rest and walloped the Spaniard pretty quickly. The debate about Murray having more rest than Djokovic is now irrelevant.

So now we have the match-up of the post-invincible Djokovic versus the post-monkey-off-the-back Murray. The slate stands at 9-6 to Djokovic but it's this year's contests that concern me most. 3-2 in favour of Nole (if you include the fairly meaningless Boodles exhibition pre Wimbledon) with two clashes in the majors - Djokovic winning 7-5 in the fifth in the Aussie semi-final, and Murray winning 7-5 7-5 in the Olympic semi. Ivan Lendl came on board for Murray between those matches and the mysterious behind-the-scenes issue for Djokovic emerged amid them too. The first event I put great importance on, the latter could be the mountain or the molehill - you can't give it a lot of credence without more evidence, but it's clear that Novak isn't as invincible as he was in 2011.

This will be Andy's fifth crack at a Slam final. In his first three, he didn't claim a set. At Wimbledon, he took the first set. At the Olympics, by beating Djokovic in the semi and thumping Federer in the final, he broke through that wall emphatically.

I said a fortnight ago I liked Murray to win the lot and that still applies. He needs to dictate the play early and strangle the life out of the match, it's too hard to come from behind against a player like Djokovic who can maintain his tempo for five hours plus.

I'm backing Andy straight out to win the match, if you still don't have faith in the guy, then make it a back-to-lay trade. Back pre-match at around 3.3, set up the lay trade at around 2.0 (shorter if you think he's a bit of a choker), and remember to hit Keep, for the unmatched bet to go in-play. How you stake it is up to you, either take your stake back and let the profit ride on Murray, or use the 'Payout' function to level up the book to the cent (enter the exact amount you would get back from the Murray bet - i.e. £20 at 3.3 = £66).

[ERROR EDITED re previous finals]

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…