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AAMI Victoria Derby preview

The eponymous race on a fantastic card often cops a bit of slack for being too early in the season, but the English, French and Kentucky Derbys are all in the first half of their seasons (this is the longest of all of them though). The breeding buffs of Europe would be astonished to know that geldings are eligible to run in this race, including some of the favoured runners. This is not a stallion-making race by any stretch of the imagination. It's a solid field this year though - just seven days ago it looked like a procession for It's A Dundeel but the Vase at Moonee Valley threw the cat amongst the pigeons. With the preview for the blog is another first-timer, Wal G, @gisikus, taking the historical trends angle.

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AAMI Victoria Derby

From a historical viewpoint the Derby winner seems particularly easy to drill down to the main players. 19 of the past 22 winners were placed in the top three in either the Moonee Valley Vase seven days earlier or the Norman Robinson on Caulfield Cup day 14 days prior. The exceptions have been 1992 (Redding – 4th Vase); 2008 Rebel Raider (3rd Geelong Classic); and 2009 (Monaco Consul – 1st Spring Champion).

I'm gonna take the chance that there will be no surprises like these this year. That record leaves us with five candidates as Vase 3rd placegetter, Viking Star, misses the race.

Super Cool (Fastnet Rock x Queen Mother) Sire of the moment Down Under who sired five individual G1 winners last season including 2011 Oaks winner Mosheen. The Dam is by Kingmambo so some stoutness to the breeding. SC has had five starts and ratings wise had a solid platform to perform well at Moonee Valley. A repeat of that effort puts him in the winners' stall for mine.

It’s A Dundeel (High Chaparral x Stareel) No queries over his staying pedigree as he already has two individual Derby winners in Australia as well as a Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup winner. The mare is a Zabeel for added staying pedigree. There’s no doubt that the horse will take great improvement out of the Vase after a 21 day break since his Spring Champion Stakes win. The 2nd horse there Proisir has since run well in the Cox Plate. Great ratings profile producing a ‘flatter’ effort after the Sydney peak. Question is after a long prep is he able to spike again this campaign.

Hvasstan (Fastnet Rock x Snow Hero) Another Fastnet given a classic stayers prep by the Gelagotis boys. Won three of his last four from 1700m – 2000m and the Boss could win on a rocking horse at the minute. Has developed a nice ratings base but the query is the next step to the G1 level.

Honorius (Holy Roman Emperor x Zarinia) Benefitted in the stewards' room when Electric Fusion laid in on him in the Robinson. Taking a formline through his third in the Spring Champion when beaten 5L, Its hard to see him flipping the result with It's A Dundeel in the Derby and hard to see why he is so close to Super Cool in the market.

Electric Fusion (Fastnet Rock x Silken Song) Another Fastnet this time matched with an Unbridled Song Mare so there is stoutness in the pedigree. Using the Honorius formline in the Robinson against that horses Spring Champion form, its hard to see him winning but I’m throwing in for 3rd given his rapid improvement and double figure price.

Finally the barriers - there seems no disadvantage with a high number. Whenever a full field of 16-18 has contested the winning gates have been 10 13 12 1 12 6 2 11 9 14 & 7.

Top three: Super Cool from It’s A Dundeel and Electric Fusion.

Comments

  1. Scott, I just can't get my head around a Fastnet Rock winning a Derby. If it's a genuine pace, I can't see enough staying blood on any of the dams side to get them 2500. I know Mosheen won an Oaks, but she was miles better than her mob. Same story with Atlantic Jewel winning at 2000. Last 10 sires of VRC Derby winners were: Savabeel,Storming Home (GB), High Chaparral (IRE), Reset, Golan (IRE), Zabeel, More Than Ready, Laranto, Danzig & Helessio. More Than Ready was the only sus one there. Maybe we are due for a strange one, but...

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  2. Cheers for your comment PJ. To be honest, I tend to agree with you, but this isn't my preview. I distinctly remember the day when my mate and I declared Mahogany couldn't possibly stay, then watched it absolutely piss in. Similar case to Mosheen - huge gap in class. Not sure that applies to any of them here. We shall see tomorrow!

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  3. Ahh, just noticed that it wasn't yours :-) One of my favs Mahogany - just looked at his record again. Unreal that his last 10 runs were 1000 to 1400 - inc 4 wins (with a Lightning Hcp victory) - he was a freak - Greg Hall still bars up probably !! BTW, it is bloody hard to post a comment here with the virtually indecipherable "anti-robot" stuff you have :-)

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  4. a necessary evil I'm afraid, cop heaps of spam, and when I cover a touchy subject, there's a bit of abuse and libel that needs filtering. There is a button there you can hit to keep refreshing the images until you can finally read one, I know I have to on some other sites...

    Most of the racing previews I post aren't mine, just friends of the site. I'll do the occasional one, check the header to see who the author is so you can track the ones you like.

    ReplyDelete

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