Nine races on the programme at Flemington for Derby Day, and rounding off the set of previews is sports investment fund Priomha (@priomha). As mentioned below, the first and last race of the day can have a very large bearing on how much you are smiling on the way out...
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We have been entrusted with the two most important races of the day, namely Race 1 The Carbine Club Stakes & Race 9 The tab.com.au Stakes. If we get the opening race right we set ourselves up for the day with plenty of artillery whilst if we get the last race right we are fully loaded for Cup Day. Prices in brackets are assessed prices.
RACE 1: Carbine Club Stakes - 1600m, Group 3
Normally this is a nice opener for the carnival as the winner is fairly obvious. Darley have often targeted the race successfully as they did last year (albeit by a pimple with Galah) and have a number of runners again. We have seven of the runners under $13 so if something gets too short steer clear.
#1- Tatra ($7): a Darley runner who was a little wide over 1800m last start. Has been freshened for this and two starts back won over 1400m at Listed level. Will race handy and if there is no speed on it will look the winner at some point. The last 200m may test.
#2 - Pronto Pronto ($12): risking it here in the hope that it won't get the easy run it did two starts ago when it led in a slowly run race and kicked home. Is drawn to try and do the same again but with a couple of others drawn wider who will look to lead we think it will be a more truly run race. We have to let it go without our money but it is not hopeless.
#3 - Proverb ($6.50): another Darley runner who has been freshened from its last start. Is drawn the inside and provided it jumps it should box seat. Unlike many of its rivals it is proven over a mile and that is a big tick. Looks a very safe each-way play.
#4 - Al Aneed ($7.50): aided by a gun ride last start it is the up and comer of the field. Was $12 when winning last start so we are prepared to risk it a little again tomorrow. The current markets have it a little too short.
#5 - Lunar Rise ($5.50): another who we know will run the distance. Has the perfect draw to either go forward or back. Has form around the Derby favourite but will need some pace on to show its best. If the race is truly run (which we think it will be) and the track is not too wet then we are happy to put it on top. The current market has it offering little value.
#6 - Crystal Web ($13): ok run last start. Two starts ago it sat on a slow speed but still got run over by Union Gap and others. On that run we are prepared to leave it out of calculations.
#7 - Steep ($21): one that we are prepared to risk. Ran home ok last start but it has raced most of its opposition already and always come up short.
#8 - Union Gap ($9): flew home last start when $21 and was the eye-catcher of the day. Drawn widely it will again settle back and as such will need some luck. We can't have it any shorter than $9 owing to the luck it will need in running. If they go along at a suicidal pace then it is the one to look out for.
#9 - Right To Roam ($21): another who we can't have on form. If it wins we will be out, as will most others
#10 - Real Stolle ($41): if this wins then we will all need a vodka even though it will only be 1125am. If it finishes in the first half of the field it will have been a good run.
SUMMARY Tough, open race where one can't load up. Take whatever horse is value in the markets. Back #5 Lunar Rose each way and rove it in the trifectas and First 4s.
RACE 9: tab.com.au Stakes - 1400m, Group 3
Great race to finish Day One of the Carnival. There should be plenty of speed on with Dusty Star and McClintock leading them a merry chase. This will set it up for the strong finishers and it is with that firm belief that we have narrowed the race down to two.
#1- Wall Street ($26): a multiple Group 1 winner who might be a light of former days. That said, the strong pace might suit but it is hard to have him. He has run a couple of good races whilst fresh. He is one for the multiples to run fourth at best. Not out of it but we have to risk some of them.
#2 - Mid Summer Music ($21): paying the price for her Group 1 win in Brisbane over the winter. Now has to carry big weights against the boys and is better suited when there is some rain around. If there is a downpour through the day then she comes right into calculations. On what we know now, she maybe better in the breeding barn.
#3 - Bold Glance ($10): possible the value runner of the day. Is down from Brisbane and has form around Fillydelphia and Solzenitsyn. Great stats at the distance, likes a firm track and must be included at a good price.
#4 - Fawkner ($5.75): the race sets up perfectly for him. Loves the track, loves the distance and will be suited by the fast pace. Will sit midfield and pull out on the home turn. His best runs are fresh and he is off a 28 day lay off. Ticks all the boxes and whatever beats him will win the race.
#5 - Free Wheeling ($3.75): this is the one that can beat Fawkner and is on top. Great return to racing last start and steps up to 1400m where it has great stats. Put them away off a hot speed last start and we expect him to do the same again.
#6 - Instinction ($8): burnt Priomha investors last start when we layed it and won!! Must be included in the multiples but we suspect that it will find our top picks a little too quick, especially given that it is so close in the weights.
#7 - Dusty Star ($17): will fly along in front and will probably wilt in the last 200m. Whilst a win would not completely shock a first four finish is probably the best it can do.
#8 - McClintock ($11): predicting it will get in a dog fight up front with Dusty Star. That being the case it will kick and be strong but most likely get run over. If they dawdle up front then it will probably win but we can't see that happening. It can hold on for third or fourth.
#9 - Morant ($13): if it produces its best it can be the blow out. Its last three starts have been full of merit and meets a few of the same horses today. With even luck it can figure at a good price.
#10 - Renewed Vitality ($41): we have to leave one of them out and this is it. Crumbled last start over 1400m and based on that effort we can't see it figuring in the finish.
SUMMARY Great race to finish things off. We think it is a match race between #4 Fawkner and #5 Free Wheeling. Figure out the staking and back them both for the win. If you are keen on multiples/quaddies etc must include #s 3,6,8,9.
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We have been entrusted with the two most important races of the day, namely Race 1 The Carbine Club Stakes & Race 9 The tab.com.au Stakes. If we get the opening race right we set ourselves up for the day with plenty of artillery whilst if we get the last race right we are fully loaded for Cup Day. Prices in brackets are assessed prices.
RACE 1: Carbine Club Stakes - 1600m, Group 3
Normally this is a nice opener for the carnival as the winner is fairly obvious. Darley have often targeted the race successfully as they did last year (albeit by a pimple with Galah) and have a number of runners again. We have seven of the runners under $13 so if something gets too short steer clear.
#1- Tatra ($7): a Darley runner who was a little wide over 1800m last start. Has been freshened for this and two starts back won over 1400m at Listed level. Will race handy and if there is no speed on it will look the winner at some point. The last 200m may test.
#2 - Pronto Pronto ($12): risking it here in the hope that it won't get the easy run it did two starts ago when it led in a slowly run race and kicked home. Is drawn to try and do the same again but with a couple of others drawn wider who will look to lead we think it will be a more truly run race. We have to let it go without our money but it is not hopeless.
#3 - Proverb ($6.50): another Darley runner who has been freshened from its last start. Is drawn the inside and provided it jumps it should box seat. Unlike many of its rivals it is proven over a mile and that is a big tick. Looks a very safe each-way play.
#4 - Al Aneed ($7.50): aided by a gun ride last start it is the up and comer of the field. Was $12 when winning last start so we are prepared to risk it a little again tomorrow. The current markets have it a little too short.
#5 - Lunar Rise ($5.50): another who we know will run the distance. Has the perfect draw to either go forward or back. Has form around the Derby favourite but will need some pace on to show its best. If the race is truly run (which we think it will be) and the track is not too wet then we are happy to put it on top. The current market has it offering little value.
#6 - Crystal Web ($13): ok run last start. Two starts ago it sat on a slow speed but still got run over by Union Gap and others. On that run we are prepared to leave it out of calculations.
#7 - Steep ($21): one that we are prepared to risk. Ran home ok last start but it has raced most of its opposition already and always come up short.
#8 - Union Gap ($9): flew home last start when $21 and was the eye-catcher of the day. Drawn widely it will again settle back and as such will need some luck. We can't have it any shorter than $9 owing to the luck it will need in running. If they go along at a suicidal pace then it is the one to look out for.
#9 - Right To Roam ($21): another who we can't have on form. If it wins we will be out, as will most others
#10 - Real Stolle ($41): if this wins then we will all need a vodka even though it will only be 1125am. If it finishes in the first half of the field it will have been a good run.
SUMMARY Tough, open race where one can't load up. Take whatever horse is value in the markets. Back #5 Lunar Rose each way and rove it in the trifectas and First 4s.
RACE 9: tab.com.au Stakes - 1400m, Group 3
Great race to finish Day One of the Carnival. There should be plenty of speed on with Dusty Star and McClintock leading them a merry chase. This will set it up for the strong finishers and it is with that firm belief that we have narrowed the race down to two.
#1- Wall Street ($26): a multiple Group 1 winner who might be a light of former days. That said, the strong pace might suit but it is hard to have him. He has run a couple of good races whilst fresh. He is one for the multiples to run fourth at best. Not out of it but we have to risk some of them.
#2 - Mid Summer Music ($21): paying the price for her Group 1 win in Brisbane over the winter. Now has to carry big weights against the boys and is better suited when there is some rain around. If there is a downpour through the day then she comes right into calculations. On what we know now, she maybe better in the breeding barn.
#3 - Bold Glance ($10): possible the value runner of the day. Is down from Brisbane and has form around Fillydelphia and Solzenitsyn. Great stats at the distance, likes a firm track and must be included at a good price.
#4 - Fawkner ($5.75): the race sets up perfectly for him. Loves the track, loves the distance and will be suited by the fast pace. Will sit midfield and pull out on the home turn. His best runs are fresh and he is off a 28 day lay off. Ticks all the boxes and whatever beats him will win the race.
#5 - Free Wheeling ($3.75): this is the one that can beat Fawkner and is on top. Great return to racing last start and steps up to 1400m where it has great stats. Put them away off a hot speed last start and we expect him to do the same again.
#6 - Instinction ($8): burnt Priomha investors last start when we layed it and won!! Must be included in the multiples but we suspect that it will find our top picks a little too quick, especially given that it is so close in the weights.
#7 - Dusty Star ($17): will fly along in front and will probably wilt in the last 200m. Whilst a win would not completely shock a first four finish is probably the best it can do.
#8 - McClintock ($11): predicting it will get in a dog fight up front with Dusty Star. That being the case it will kick and be strong but most likely get run over. If they dawdle up front then it will probably win but we can't see that happening. It can hold on for third or fourth.
#9 - Morant ($13): if it produces its best it can be the blow out. Its last three starts have been full of merit and meets a few of the same horses today. With even luck it can figure at a good price.
#10 - Renewed Vitality ($41): we have to leave one of them out and this is it. Crumbled last start over 1400m and based on that effort we can't see it figuring in the finish.
SUMMARY Great race to finish things off. We think it is a match race between #4 Fawkner and #5 Free Wheeling. Figure out the staking and back them both for the win. If you are keen on multiples/quaddies etc must include #s 3,6,8,9.
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