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Derby Day - Lexus Stakes preview

The Lexus is the last chance to several horses get into Tuesday's Cup. The VRC have made the right move by pushing this to one of the early races on the card in recent years, even a few hours helps with recovery for horses wanting to back up, plus it gives connections time to think whether they will go ahead with paying up for the Race That Stops The Nation.

Providing a short, sharp insight into the race is the team from Premium Punting, @premiumpunting. Assessed prices in brackets, not what is currently available.

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RACE 2 - THE LEXUS STAKES (2500m)

Tempo: OK. Dame Claire to lead with the two UK horse Gatewood & Ibicenco to sit just behind him.

1. GATEWOOD $4.00 - All too easy in Geelong Cup. Will be much fitter for that after soft run 1st up. Beaten a nose over this dist at G2 level in France. Good shot.

2. TANBY $15.00 - Good win. Ultra consistent over this distance. Smart move from trainer to freshen. Has to improve with 2.5kg weight jump.

3. PERMIT - Running poorly.

4. KELINNI $8.00 - Running very well this prep. Will push forward here and find trail. Lugs big weight but hasn’t stopped him in past. Consider.

5. IBICENCO - Horrid in first Aus run. Form overseas rates to win this but until shows promise cannot be considered.

6. EXCLUDED $10.50 - Ran ok. Will go back here from awkward draw. Think he needs to improve a fair bit to win this but is capable of big run.

7. REUBEN PERCIVAL $7.50 - Had reasonably easy run and battled on only evenly late. Whenever a high rating is encountered, he drops badly at next start. Prepared to risk.

8. EXCEPTIONALLY $15.00 - Could never win a sit and sprint 5L off leaders in Geel Cup. Better speed on here. Won 5th up last prep by 3.5L over 2600m at Flem. Will be better.

9. DAME CLAIRE $5.70 - Will be far better off that run. Find lead again here. Best career run is over 2400m. Needs to reach an unseen level but appears significant overs.

10. FICTIONAL ACCOUNT - Not here.

11. SABRAGE - Can't consider off last run.

12. DARE TO DREAM - Missed jump and failed to regain spot. Will be back here. Form two starts ago would rate to win this. Will get back off speed and finish well.

13. PEAL OF BELLS - Lacks the kick late to win this.

Overview : Good competitive race. 1 from 9,4,2,6

For extended analysis similar to this for all Sydney & Melbourne meets visit www.premium-punting.com.au

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The Lexus Melbourne Cup
Group 1, Handicap, 3200m
AUD 7,750,000
Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT
Broadcasters - Network 10 (AUS), Racing.com (worldwide), SkySportsRacing (UK)


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