Skip to main content

Derby Day - Wakeful Stakes preview

Next up on the Derby Day preview roster is the debutant @CJAAAAY07 from ThisWeeksPunt, assessing the Wakeful Stakes, a Group II contest for three-year-old fillies at set weights plus penalties conditions, over 2000m.

-------------------

The Wakeful Stakes is a race steeped in history which falls between the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield and the Oaks on Thursday, to which it is used as clear lead-up. By this point many of the formlines are exposed which can often result in some short-priced winners of this race. In the past 30 years, 20 winners of this race have come through the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield with 13 out of those 20 winners placed in that lead-up race. This bodes well for the favoured runners here in Zydeco (3rd) and Dear Demi (2nd).

The 2000m start at Flemington is one of the fairest in the country; quite a long run to the wide sweeping turn with an extended straight which will give every runner a chance.

1. DEAR DEMI
Unlucky in Thousand Guineas, form around all the best horses in career but has to carry the penalty in this race.

2. MAMA'S CHOICE
Blinkers first time to try and help the horse get a trip, recent form says not going well enough.

3. DONNA CATTIVA
Form hasn't measured up this preparation with the best horses.

4. ZYDECO
Has been progressively improving with each start, hit the line like Flemington & 2000 would suit.

5. TRANSONIC
Should come across from wide gate and attempt to lead. Has exposure at the trip when stayed on well.

6. MARAATIB
I don’t like backing Redoute's Choice fillies at distances & this one hung in badly last start.

7. TYANNA
Strong in last two winning performances, should get nice run mid-field.

8. KATE
Best performances have been on rain-affected tracks in NZ.

9. MADAM ARCHER
Impressive at Wangaratta before not much luck at Caulfield in the Ethereal Stakes. Should get good run.

10. LA ZUMA
Outsprinted but poor in Thousand Guineas, should enjoy quieter run from better gate. May like sting out of ground.

11. ZUCCOTTO
Should enjoy step up in trip, will get back.

12. TEN BLACK
Not much luck last start, but doesn’t appear to have the ability of others here.


The market has responded to the history of this race with Zydeco and Dear Demi the clear favourites. Tyanna is coming off two victories at the provincials by impressive margins and is on the next line of betting with double figure value for the rest. The concern for the favourites could be the fact the tempo doesn’t appear to be overly quick here. Transonic should come across from the wide gate and lead easily with the inside four runners pushing up to hold their positions.

There isn’t a real trick to this edition of the Wakeful, the top two in market seem to have a clear advantage on the field and it is best to play the percentages of history and go with the best runs out of the Thousand Guineas. My suggestion for betting is to work around 4. Zydeco & 1. Dear Demi and include runners who look to get good runs in transit combined with class jockeys which is a must for Derby Day. I suspect 10. La Zuma (Corey Brown) will be put into this race earlier from an inside barrier, 7. Tyanna (Michael Rodd) & 11. Zuccotto (Hugh Bowman) to fight out the minors.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Villiers Stakes preview

The highlight of summer racing in Sydney is the Villiers Stakes. Tasked with the preview is Mitch Fenton.

-------------------

Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

I’m going to stick with that form line; here’s the horses who ran in the Festival, running today.

1 I'm Imposing (55.5) 20-1
2 [0.1] Estonian Princess (54) 7-1
3 [0.3] Strawberry Boy (57.5) 6-1
5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

Out of all those runs in the Festival, Strawberry Boy was a clear top pick for mine.

He worked very hard out in front with his 1500m to 600m times and was 3L quicker than the average. He was entitled to drop out of the race but instead he fought on dogged…