Skip to main content

Derby Day - Wakeful Stakes preview

Next up on the Derby Day preview roster is the debutant @CJAAAAY07 from ThisWeeksPunt, assessing the Wakeful Stakes, a Group II contest for three-year-old fillies at set weights plus penalties conditions, over 2000m.

-------------------

The Wakeful Stakes is a race steeped in history which falls between the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield and the Oaks on Thursday, to which it is used as clear lead-up. By this point many of the formlines are exposed which can often result in some short-priced winners of this race. In the past 30 years, 20 winners of this race have come through the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield with 13 out of those 20 winners placed in that lead-up race. This bodes well for the favoured runners here in Zydeco (3rd) and Dear Demi (2nd).

The 2000m start at Flemington is one of the fairest in the country; quite a long run to the wide sweeping turn with an extended straight which will give every runner a chance.

1. DEAR DEMI
Unlucky in Thousand Guineas, form around all the best horses in career but has to carry the penalty in this race.

2. MAMA'S CHOICE
Blinkers first time to try and help the horse get a trip, recent form says not going well enough.

3. DONNA CATTIVA
Form hasn't measured up this preparation with the best horses.

4. ZYDECO
Has been progressively improving with each start, hit the line like Flemington & 2000 would suit.

5. TRANSONIC
Should come across from wide gate and attempt to lead. Has exposure at the trip when stayed on well.

6. MARAATIB
I don’t like backing Redoute's Choice fillies at distances & this one hung in badly last start.

7. TYANNA
Strong in last two winning performances, should get nice run mid-field.

8. KATE
Best performances have been on rain-affected tracks in NZ.

9. MADAM ARCHER
Impressive at Wangaratta before not much luck at Caulfield in the Ethereal Stakes. Should get good run.

10. LA ZUMA
Outsprinted but poor in Thousand Guineas, should enjoy quieter run from better gate. May like sting out of ground.

11. ZUCCOTTO
Should enjoy step up in trip, will get back.

12. TEN BLACK
Not much luck last start, but doesn’t appear to have the ability of others here.


The market has responded to the history of this race with Zydeco and Dear Demi the clear favourites. Tyanna is coming off two victories at the provincials by impressive margins and is on the next line of betting with double figure value for the rest. The concern for the favourites could be the fact the tempo doesn’t appear to be overly quick here. Transonic should come across from the wide gate and lead easily with the inside four runners pushing up to hold their positions.

There isn’t a real trick to this edition of the Wakeful, the top two in market seem to have a clear advantage on the field and it is best to play the percentages of history and go with the best runs out of the Thousand Guineas. My suggestion for betting is to work around 4. Zydeco & 1. Dear Demi and include runners who look to get good runs in transit combined with class jockeys which is a must for Derby Day. I suspect 10. La Zuma (Corey Brown) will be put into this race earlier from an inside barrier, 7. Tyanna (Michael Rodd) & 11. Zuccotto (Hugh Bowman) to fight out the minors.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…