Skip to main content

Derby Day - Yellowglen Stakes preview

I wasn't planning on stepping in for a preview on Derby Day, but this race was good to go without a preview. At first I thought this was a weak renewal of the race but the more I look at it, the higher I rate it. There are some very talented rising sprinters here who will progress to WFA ranks quite soon.

Yellowglen Stakes, Group II, 1200m, Open Handicap.

Tiger Tees - exceptional sprinter with nine wins from 14 starts. Has won both Group 3 starts, but unplaced at two runs above that level. Tried to sit outside Buffering in the Moir and didn't seem to like Moonee Valley. Back to Sydney for a barrier trial since, and regains the services of Christian Reith who has a record of seven wins and two seconds from nine rides on the horse. Freshened up, blinkers go back on, drawn ideally (probably trivial but gate six has the best record for course & distance), I reckon he's overs.

Golden Archer - flying Victorian sprinter who is three from four at Flemington. Beaten under two lengths by Buffering at WFA last star when giving that horse a start and covering more ground than any other in the race after drawing the outside gate. Has the stat trainer-jockey combination aboard, but further research discovers that their record in black type races this season is ordinary. They are too good to let that record continue for long though, and this one could go around over the odds as well.

Pampelonne - won The Shorts at Randwick in September but only fourth against Buffering in the Schillaci, just behind Golden Archer. That was his first run at Caulfield and I am always prepared to forgive NSW horses on their first try around the right-angle bend at Caulfield. His favourite jockey climbs back on (three from three for Hugh Bowman) and he's also drawn nicely in the middle. Another with a very good chance.

Rolling Pin - NSW raider who ran third in the G1 Epsom last start over a mile (40/1) and won the G2 Shannon Stakes (14/1) immediately before that. Last three runs have been over 1500-1600m but that hasn't stopped a few winners in the feature sprints here in the past. Will go around at a big price, but that hasn't bothered him in the past.

Spirit of Boom - honest horse who is always thereabouts. Hit the front at the 200 in the Gilgai but couldn't sustain it against Hallowell Belle and King's Rose, finishing a close-up third. Drew the car park at his previous start behind Pampelonne in The Shorts. In the running for the minors, will need luck to claim the big cheque.

Howmuchdoyouloveme - boom horse with five wins from six starts, including the Ramornie Handicap and the Caulfield Sprint at his first start in Victoria. Trialled brilliantly down the straight during the week, leading the early value-seekers into smashing his price into odds-on soon after the markets opened. Rises 2.5kg for the easy win at Caulfield but steps up in class as well. He won clearly last time after getting a relatively easy lead but there didn't seem to huge amounts in reserve - I don't see how he is this short in a pressure race.

Outlandish Lad - SA sprinter poorly weighted in this field. Has G.Boss aboard but surely not up to this level.

Curtana - SCRATCHED

Miss Marx - has drawn wide her past two starts at Caulfield, now draws near the inside which shouldn't matter too much with the barriers down the middle. Flying this campaign, running 2213, including splitting More Joyous and Streama in Sydney. Versatile, was sitting up front in Sydney but has flown home from the back off wide gates at Caulfield. Gets a decent weight advantage off the favoured runners and with a young trainer who has a very good record. Definite chance.

Chasm - 8yo with no hope.

Latin News - Qld visitor who was close-up in first Vic run last start, at Caulfield, behind Howmuchdoyouloveme. Gets a 2kg weight advantage for being beaten 2.4 lengths. Craig Williams climbs aboard but has a poor strike rate winning just three starts out of 30.

Bolton - beaten a nose in the Darwin Cup last start. Not the formline we usually look for in a race like this, but Stephen Brown is a much underrated trainer (15 wins from last 50 runners). Would not surprise if he threw big value into the trifecta or First 4 if the field was stretched out across the line.

Fontelina - resuming after 224 days, showed a bit of talent in his career so far beating the handy Said Com conceding 2.5kg first-up last campaign. Has trialled well in Sydney but surely this is too much to ask today.

BETS: Tiger Tees looks the one for me, with Miss Marx and Pampelonne for the minors. Latin News and Bolton will be included in exotics for 3rd/4th.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Wimbledon preview - women

Unfortunately this year I don't have the time to write comprehensive Slam previews anymore so I'll sum this one up pretty quickly - it's all about Serena. 1 - Serena Williams. In incredible form. Since bombing out in R1 of the French Open last year, she has lost just three times - to Kerber (Cincinnati QF), to Stephens (Aus Open QF) and to Azarenka (Doha final). She has won three of the last four Wimbledon finals plus the Olympic gold last year where she dropped just 17 games in six rounds, against opponents which included four former world #1s. All that considered though, I can't have her at 1/2 (1.50) on Betfair. She just has to be opposed. I can't put a finger on who is going to beat her, but I have to side with her prospective opponents. If you want a smokey to put some small change on, try Maria Kirilenko. Her record in the Slam isn't so great but it has been improving - a best result of R4 last year beaten by finalist Radwanska 7-5 in the third, and