Skip to main content

Final race of the carnival

Let's hope we're all still in the quaddie or Big 6 by the last race. Typically, it's not the easiest of races, so we need a decent analysis. Here to preview it is another newcomer, Simon Baird - @sbaird80

-----------------

Race 9 - Emirates Airline Handicap

1. Launay – Quality Snowden runner that hasn’t produced his best this campaign after a promising first up run. Finished two and half of lengths off the smart Callanish last start and is continuing to carry his share of weight courtesy of previous consistent performances. Lack of faith from jockey (see Chasse) a concern but wins if he produces his best.

2. Instinction – Talented entire on his day but probably concentrating on his manhood more than racing at times. Has been frustrating this time in but Mick Price has remained confident he is on the right track and that is a good sign. Goes well at Flemington recording a win and place here in four runs and has won twice at the distance. Include.

3. Utah Saints – Solid effort in the Sale Cup when spec’d at odds. On pacer who is suited better back at the 1400m and if Sertorius runs well in race 3 will come in sharply in the market. If you like him I advise to take the early price.

4. Chasse – The other Snowden runner who interestingly McEvoy has chosen to ride. Good record at the track but suspect will need a bit further. If he gets clear room he will be winding up out wide and steaming home.

5. Mr Make Believe – Scratched from Mornington Sunday for this due to the hard track and will most likely get another one here. On pacer who needs it soft to produce his best and not sure the Moody runners are firing this week.

6. Testascana – Ex Moody runner who is going well for new stable. Form around Fawkner speaks volumes although struggling to win. Jockey doesn’t win out of turn.

7. Shamardashing –Stayer first up over the 1400m here. Patinack horses going well and wouldn’t surprise to see him running on strongly at the end.

8. Tokugawa – Talented gelding and rated highly going by the class of races he’s been in of late. Nice little weight drop from WFA last start where he put in a good run. Form is stronger than most of these. Significant jockey engagement.

9. Down Under Boy – Winner this race last year at $81 when swooped hard. Didn’t look like losing that race but couldn’t crack another win that campaign. Lightening doesn’t strike in the same place twice.

10. Snow Cover – Mixes form but has shown ability in the past at this track. Only placed once in four goes at the distance and gate makes it tough for this galloper.

11. Under the Hat – Interesting runner. Has close second to December Draw here and always been highly rated by John Sadler. Another talented Helenus galloper. Big chance

12. Hot Spin – Once group sprinter gone off the boil. Been “spinning” his wheels of late and costly for punters. Showed some return to form last start but step up to 1400m a query.

13. Berenger – Anthony Freedman runner who is doing a good job after taking over from his big brother. Not sure this guy’s is up to this level yet though. Probably needs another 2kgs off to be competitive

14. Regalmania – Country class galloper tested here.

15. Ametsis – Scratched.

Summary: Really like Under the Hat to suit the pattern and swoop home here. Throwing in Togukawa, Instinction, Utah Saints and Chasse as place chances. Good luck!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…