Skip to main content

Final race of the carnival

Let's hope we're all still in the quaddie or Big 6 by the last race. Typically, it's not the easiest of races, so we need a decent analysis. Here to preview it is another newcomer, Simon Baird - @sbaird80

-----------------

Race 9 - Emirates Airline Handicap

1. Launay – Quality Snowden runner that hasn’t produced his best this campaign after a promising first up run. Finished two and half of lengths off the smart Callanish last start and is continuing to carry his share of weight courtesy of previous consistent performances. Lack of faith from jockey (see Chasse) a concern but wins if he produces his best.

2. Instinction – Talented entire on his day but probably concentrating on his manhood more than racing at times. Has been frustrating this time in but Mick Price has remained confident he is on the right track and that is a good sign. Goes well at Flemington recording a win and place here in four runs and has won twice at the distance. Include.

3. Utah Saints – Solid effort in the Sale Cup when spec’d at odds. On pacer who is suited better back at the 1400m and if Sertorius runs well in race 3 will come in sharply in the market. If you like him I advise to take the early price.

4. Chasse – The other Snowden runner who interestingly McEvoy has chosen to ride. Good record at the track but suspect will need a bit further. If he gets clear room he will be winding up out wide and steaming home.

5. Mr Make Believe – Scratched from Mornington Sunday for this due to the hard track and will most likely get another one here. On pacer who needs it soft to produce his best and not sure the Moody runners are firing this week.

6. Testascana – Ex Moody runner who is going well for new stable. Form around Fawkner speaks volumes although struggling to win. Jockey doesn’t win out of turn.

7. Shamardashing –Stayer first up over the 1400m here. Patinack horses going well and wouldn’t surprise to see him running on strongly at the end.

8. Tokugawa – Talented gelding and rated highly going by the class of races he’s been in of late. Nice little weight drop from WFA last start where he put in a good run. Form is stronger than most of these. Significant jockey engagement.

9. Down Under Boy – Winner this race last year at $81 when swooped hard. Didn’t look like losing that race but couldn’t crack another win that campaign. Lightening doesn’t strike in the same place twice.

10. Snow Cover – Mixes form but has shown ability in the past at this track. Only placed once in four goes at the distance and gate makes it tough for this galloper.

11. Under the Hat – Interesting runner. Has close second to December Draw here and always been highly rated by John Sadler. Another talented Helenus galloper. Big chance

12. Hot Spin – Once group sprinter gone off the boil. Been “spinning” his wheels of late and costly for punters. Showed some return to form last start but step up to 1400m a query.

13. Berenger – Anthony Freedman runner who is doing a good job after taking over from his big brother. Not sure this guy’s is up to this level yet though. Probably needs another 2kgs off to be competitive

14. Regalmania – Country class galloper tested here.

15. Ametsis – Scratched.

Summary: Really like Under the Hat to suit the pattern and swoop home here. Throwing in Togukawa, Instinction, Utah Saints and Chasse as place chances. Good luck!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…