Skip to main content

Matriarch Stakes Preview

The final day of the Flemington carnival is a cracker and this mares' race has an exceptionally talented favourite... but is it that simple for this leg of the quaddie? Dissecting the race in detail is Rick Williams from Champion Picks. Follow him on Twitter via @Rick_WilliamsCP

Pacemap


***Please note map is 'pre settling' positions

Map notes
Kasane took a sit handy to the speed on Cup day and with the step out to 2000m we expect that they will look to cross early and get a sit handy which looks the place to be. Khandallah should work over to lead them up without hassle as there is little speed inside of her. The rest just look like they will all fall into place.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Runner notes (short)
Strong chance
Some chance
No chance

1 SILENT ACHIEVER (NZ) - Came off of a hot speed at MV to beat good field. At WFA. 2000 record great. Unders

2 INVEST - 2000m G1 winner. Excellent last week when +9.1 at 1600. Ready for strong 2000

3 MIDNIGHT MARTINI - Not suited last start in slowly ran race. Cranbourne Cup win excellent

4 CRAFTY IRNA - #2 +11.5 2000 RHIL three back. Nice draw, well weighted, D Oliver.

5 KASANE - Excellent win Cup day. +1kg here. great on the map, race cup day strong

6 FULL OF SPIRIT - Meets Invest 2.5kg better for 0.90L. Big finish, looking for 2000

7 LAKE SENTENTIA - Great win last start. Negative final split though so working around.

8 MANILA JEWEL - Can't win. Needs to make up 6.2L to beat Lake Sententia. Can't improve that much

9 KHANDALLAH - Was excellent last start as was a sitting duck and only Lake Sententia beat her. Too hard here

10 ROCK HIT - Got too far back at MV. Worked very hard though the middle stages of the races then died on the run

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race overview
Silent Achiever won very well last start but has come up very short. She is going to get back, probably just an even tempo but she has a good sprint on her and that can get her out of trouble. She does look risky at the shorts from back there. Crafty Irna ran very big three back in the Stout Hearted race, she looks to be value around the $10 and does appeal more at 2000m. Invest and Full Of Spirit both come through the same race, Full Of Spirit gets the weight swing but Invest was stronger over the concluding stages. Both have performed well at 2000 in the past and Invest looks a big price at $41. Kasane ran very well on Cup day and beat some mares who had been racing very well, this is a step up but she looks to me like she will get herself into a good spot in the run and if she can repeat the Cup day effort then she is going to be in the finish. Midnight Martini just wasn't suited at Moonee Valley as they went so slow through the first part of the race. Her form looks solid through the Cranbourne Cup but I just feel that she has probably peaked this prep and some of the others haven't . Happy to stay away from the runners coming through the MV night meeting in Rock Hit, Lake Sententia and Khandallah.

What to do
Silent Achiever looks a star so we don't really want to charge into taking it on but some small e/w bets against her look a fair option. Kasane at $31 looks a big price and can be backed each way, so can Invest at $41. Don't go too silly (small risk high reward play)but if you shape your bets 1 x 3 and go small we only need one to run a place to make some dollars. If one wins it’s a fill up.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term ' Ponzi scheme ' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up. So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done. T