As always, my target is the exotics on Melbourne Cup, mostly the trifecta (first three in order) and First 4 (can you work it out?) as the pools are huge. For those in the UK who think it's like trying to find a needle in a haystack, of course it is if you take a single ticket, as forced to by dopey UK bookies! My wager will contain a few hundred combinations and will seek the value...
So with that logic, it's not about focusing on one horse, it's about a spread of horses extending as you go down the placings.
My top chances, in order:
Galileo's Choice - should get an ideal position midfield in the running line. Slight query about travel sickness but that was a month ago now and the stable are glowing.
Dunaden - sheer class, keeps rising to the challenge. Weight might stop a train is the old adage, but he's only carrying WFA, and he has won G1s doing that. If connections thought it was worth aiming at the Arc, then that weight won't bother him, it's only 8kg down to the bottomweight.
Maluckyday - has the turn of foot required to get him out of any trouble, drops 5kg, we know he runs the distance.
Americain - all class, don't think he'll quite get there but won't be far way. Have underestimated him in previous years though...
Red Cadeaux - that four-month layoff concerns me but too good to leave out.
Ethiopia - might be poorly-weighted according to some but also the least exposed. Run in the Cox Plate was enormous.
Kelinni - lightweight who will be in the running for a decent cheque
Glencadam Gold - prepared to forgive one run, could be the one who hangs on in the straight to throw value in the tris.
Mount Athos - can't ignore him, just think he's too short.
My Quest For Peace - will keep on plugging away, not sure on his ability to run on rather than be right on the pace.
Mourayan - will be up front and reckon he will try to run them off their legs from the 1000 as he doesn't have the ability to hold them up and kick away.
then perhaps:
Green Moon - not overly convinced on him, but ignore his last run and he's right in it
and needing a couple of roughies to boost the dividend:
Sanagas - might just keep on plodding into a place at the end.
Fiorente - plenty of class in this one, just not sure how ready for this race he is. First run in a handicap, 53.5kg could be very generous.
I won't finalise my trifecta ticket until later this evening but it will look something like this:
1st
1,12 (2)
2nd
1,2,4,8,10,12,13,15,24 (9)
3rd
1,2,4,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,24 (14)
2 by 9 by 14 becomes 2x8x12 which is $96 for 50%
Bear in mind if betting on the totes via corporate bookies, not all of them will pay full dividend if a big one lands (safety net against market manipulation, not that it's applicable for a race like this). So check their rules, or play directly into the TAB pools.
Live at 4am UK time for the northern hemisphere, coverage on At The Races all night from 11pm. Or if you don't have Sky/prefer local coverage, visit www.racingnetwork.com.au for live action. Timeform Radio also broadcasting throughout the night.
So with that logic, it's not about focusing on one horse, it's about a spread of horses extending as you go down the placings.
My top chances, in order:
Galileo's Choice - should get an ideal position midfield in the running line. Slight query about travel sickness but that was a month ago now and the stable are glowing.
Dunaden - sheer class, keeps rising to the challenge. Weight might stop a train is the old adage, but he's only carrying WFA, and he has won G1s doing that. If connections thought it was worth aiming at the Arc, then that weight won't bother him, it's only 8kg down to the bottomweight.
Maluckyday - has the turn of foot required to get him out of any trouble, drops 5kg, we know he runs the distance.
Americain - all class, don't think he'll quite get there but won't be far way. Have underestimated him in previous years though...
Red Cadeaux - that four-month layoff concerns me but too good to leave out.
Ethiopia - might be poorly-weighted according to some but also the least exposed. Run in the Cox Plate was enormous.
Kelinni - lightweight who will be in the running for a decent cheque
Glencadam Gold - prepared to forgive one run, could be the one who hangs on in the straight to throw value in the tris.
Mount Athos - can't ignore him, just think he's too short.
My Quest For Peace - will keep on plugging away, not sure on his ability to run on rather than be right on the pace.
Mourayan - will be up front and reckon he will try to run them off their legs from the 1000 as he doesn't have the ability to hold them up and kick away.
then perhaps:
Green Moon - not overly convinced on him, but ignore his last run and he's right in it
and needing a couple of roughies to boost the dividend:
Sanagas - might just keep on plodding into a place at the end.
Fiorente - plenty of class in this one, just not sure how ready for this race he is. First run in a handicap, 53.5kg could be very generous.
I won't finalise my trifecta ticket until later this evening but it will look something like this:
1st
1,12 (2)
2nd
1,2,4,8,10,12,13,15,24 (9)
3rd
1,2,4,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,24 (14)
2 by 9 by 14 becomes 2x8x12 which is $96 for 50%
Bear in mind if betting on the totes via corporate bookies, not all of them will pay full dividend if a big one lands (safety net against market manipulation, not that it's applicable for a race like this). So check their rules, or play directly into the TAB pools.
Live at 4am UK time for the northern hemisphere, coverage on At The Races all night from 11pm. Or if you don't have Sky/prefer local coverage, visit www.racingnetwork.com.au for live action. Timeform Radio also broadcasting throughout the night.
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