Skip to main content

Melbourne Cup - my betting summary

As always, my target is the exotics on Melbourne Cup, mostly the trifecta (first three in order) and First 4 (can you work it out?) as the pools are huge. For those in the UK who think it's like trying to find a needle in a haystack, of course it is if you take a single ticket, as forced to by dopey UK bookies! My wager will contain a few hundred combinations and will seek the value...

So with that logic, it's not about focusing on one horse, it's about a spread of horses extending as you go down the placings.

My top chances, in order:
Galileo's Choice - should get an ideal position midfield in the running line. Slight query about travel sickness but that was a month ago now and the stable are glowing.

Dunaden - sheer class, keeps rising to the challenge. Weight might stop a train is the old adage, but he's only carrying WFA, and he has won G1s doing that. If connections thought it was worth aiming at the Arc, then that weight won't bother him, it's only 8kg down to the bottomweight.

Maluckyday - has the turn of foot required to get him out of any trouble, drops 5kg, we know he runs the distance.

Americain - all class, don't think he'll quite get there but won't be far way. Have underestimated him in previous years though...

Red Cadeaux - that four-month layoff concerns me but too good to leave out.

Ethiopia - might be poorly-weighted according to some but also the least exposed. Run in the Cox Plate was enormous.

Kelinni - lightweight who will be in the running for a decent cheque

Glencadam Gold - prepared to forgive one run, could be the one who hangs on in the straight to throw value in the tris.

Mount Athos - can't ignore him, just think he's too short.

My Quest For Peace - will keep on plugging away, not sure on his ability to run on rather than be right on the pace.

Mourayan - will be up front and reckon he will try to run them off their legs from the 1000 as he doesn't have the ability to hold them up and kick away.

then perhaps:

Green Moon - not overly convinced on him, but ignore his last run and he's right in it

and needing a couple of roughies to boost the dividend:

Sanagas - might just keep on plodding into a place at the end.

Fiorente - plenty of class in this one, just not sure how ready for this race he is. First run in a handicap, 53.5kg could be very generous.

I won't finalise my trifecta ticket until later this evening but it will look something like this:

1st
1,12 (2)

2nd
1,2,4,8,10,12,13,15,24 (9)

3rd
1,2,4,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,24 (14)

2 by 9 by 14 becomes 2x8x12 which is $96 for 50%

Bear in mind if betting on the totes via corporate bookies, not all of them will pay full dividend if a big one lands (safety net against market manipulation, not that it's applicable for a race like this). So check their rules, or play directly into the TAB pools.

Live at 4am UK time for the northern hemisphere, coverage on At The Races all night from 11pm. Or if you don't have Sky/prefer local coverage, visit www.racingnetwork.com.au for live action. Timeform Radio also broadcasting throughout the night.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term ' Ponzi scheme ' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up. So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done. T