Skip to main content

Newbury preview - Fulke Walwyn Trophy Novices' Handicap Chase

The Newbury support card isn't too bad either. Blog regular, Jack Milner, @jjmsports, takes a look at the Novices' Handicap Chase at 1325.

----------------

Some decent novices turn out the sixteen runner handicap chase, and plenty of unexposed types. Rolling Aces, Godsmejudge and Seven Woods all will be popular in the betting due to their generally attractive profile and running for ‘sexy’ connections, but they will be likely to go off too short for my liking as such. That takes out the Henderson, Nicholls and King runners. Patsy Finnegan looks Alan King’s second string, and I wouldn’t be able to have it, and with the Tizzard, Twiston-Davies and O’ Neill stables not in their best form, I wouldn’t be looking at Merry King, Handy Andy or Listen Boy.

Gores Island and Amirico are likely to be outsiders who will be lacking a bit of fitness, whereas as last time out winners Benheir and Master Neo will be pretty sharp, but accordingly will be poorly handicapped due to their recent wins and revised marks. Ballypatrick would be interesting with most Henrietta Knight runners improving since switching to Mick Channon, although the run last time was uninspiring at Ascot. Benny’s Mist goes for the in-form Venetia Williams stable, but the drying out ground would be against him, although he is respected. Sir Kezbah still looks saddled with an unworkable mark, and although now only 5lb higher than his last winning mark, isn’t for me.

The race revolves around two horses for in form stables, the first being GLOBAL POWER for Oliver Sherwood and Leighton Aspell, and SHERWANI WOLF for Charlie Longsdon and Noel Fehily. Global Power was mightily impressive last time out, winning a nice beginners chase at Fontwell over two and a half miles, and although a bit of a monkey at times, he could well back it up. On his day he was a very good hurdler, and the step up in trip combined with the switch to chasing, should continue the horse’s upward curve. Sherwani Wolf has another likeable profile, never really involved and desperately needing the run last time out. The stable is now in better form, and the step up in trip should suit, with cheek-pieces being applied first time.

Selection: Global Power, Alternative: Sherwani Wolf

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…