Skip to main content

Racetrack Ralphy's speed map

Time for the speed map from Racetrack Ralphy....

With special permission of Racetrack Ralphy for the biggest race Australia has to offer, here's his anticipated speed map for the Cup. Ralph Horowitz produces speed maps and form comments for every Melbourne metropolitan meeting via the 'Racetrack Ralphy' app for iPhones. It's even available in the UK iTunes store as well, so it's great for expats like me on the other side of the world! A bargain at £1.49 or $1.99 per meeting. No money has changed hands for this plug, but he will owe me a beer or two next time....

With about 1000m to the first bend, there's plenty of time for a horse to track wide and get across before it starts to count against it with extra ground covered. But if the pace isn't on, then that's a big negative for horses trying to slot in midfield, there won't be any room if they wait. Doesn't seem to be too much pace out wide, but someone normally surprises and send their mount forward to make a mess of the pre-race speed maps. As Ralphy mentions on the app, the further the trip, the more variables enter the speed map! With so many internationals these days, the pace tends to be more genuine, opposed to the old fast-slow-fast method which could cause carnage as they slowed and leave others -as they accelerated.

LEADERS

THE PACK IN MIDFIELD

GETTING BACK

BACKMARKERS


Ralphy's tips:
I'd print his whole comments but he hasn't emailed them to me and they are too long to copy from the app - download it if you want the full story. So here's my summary of his comments...

Thinks the race is wide open, thus the top two are poor value, so leaving them out. Very impressed with Ethiopia in the Cox Plate, and throws in Maluckyday, Mourayan and Lights of Heaven for the locals. Preferred visitors are Red Cadeaux, Mount Athos and Galileo's Choice. Plenty of combinations being taken in exotics, similar to my style, start narrow then add more runners as you go down the placings.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla