Skip to main content

Support race preview - R2 TAB Trophy

If you need something to get you going early, then here's a preview of the second race at Flemington on Cup Day from Wal G, @gisikus

---------

Flemington Race 2, 11am TAB Trophy 1700m Mares Handicap (midnight UK time)

This race has been an early feature of cup day for at least the past decade and the historical trend favours lightly raced in form mares stepping up to this grade and trip. Prices in brackets are my assessments

Twilighting ($151)
The burden of top weight against her. She was sound running 4th in Seymour Cup last start but is yet to place in 5 visits to Flemington

Shihabi ($21) 4yo mare attempts to repeat her effort last prep when she stepped up to 1600m second up and got the money at Caulfield. I’m certain Moody/Nolan will feature before the week is out and this may be the one to get things rolling.

Tai Tai Tess ($26)
Handy mare, expect she is ready to do something today. Gate no issue for her race style

Model to Nite ($67)
Not a great deal of success at the mile to 9f range but has won 2000m here

Sensational Report ($151)
Was running on late at Friday’s night meeting. Flukers hope for Sally & Diane (Wynne)

Tavernelle ($3)
There was money at odds for her at G2 level last start and she justified it running on late behind Star of Giselle for 2nd. Extra maturity now and expect Zabeel mare to relish distance increase.

Sense of Pride ($13)
US import run very well for Begg both Sydney starts including latest in the Angst quality. Can warm to this but priced it longer than the $6 available

Mabsam ($26)
Looks an improving type but stable can’t crack it for city wins of late. I’d want big odds to play

Spin The Bottle ($10)
Very progressive for Ciaran Maher winning last three including solid Ballarat win. Fits the profile perfectly and Boss up no minus. Worth a stab at $15

Champagne Ruby ($4)
Another fitting the Profile. Lightly raced Reset mare won her last start over 1500m at Mornington. Only query is the 27 day break. Williams for Eurell. Drawn to get a soft run near lead. Must have in multis

Kasane ($251)
Winner 1800m here and Prebble on but near the bottom of the list

Danyme ($151)
Struggled beyond 1400m to date

French Tang
Scratched

Orlandos Bride ($101)
Won 2 of 8 but last one was C1. Oliver on

Street Diamond ($101)
Not good enough

Aliyana ($51)
Last start maiden winner for Bart. Bred by Zabeel should be suited extra distance

Queen For Ninedays ($201)
Placed once in five metro runs. No thanks

Top three: Like what Tavernelle did last start at the Valley. Flem should suit even better. Spin The Bottle has the profile and well worth playing at anything over double figure odds. Champagne Ruby not seen for four weeks but like the cosy run Williams will give her.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...