Skip to main content

The Cup review

Well, what a wipeout that was - the #GetBorisBacktoAus fund didn't secure the majority of its funding today. The pace was relatively slow and the winner charged home in 34.07 for the last 600m. Backmarkers aren't going to beat that. With such an 'old' field (and take that with a grain of salt, since most of them were Northern Hemisphere bred, they are aged an extra year when crossing the equator), many of these won't be back again so it's tricky to look ahead to next year.

Dividends were massive - anyone who got a chunk of the trifecta or First 4, take a bow. There's a reason they are hard to get, but you've got to have a crack at them on Cup Day, the pools are just so huge.

For those who took the risks and potted any of the favourites, again well done. The top 7 in the betting all missed the placings, so the books cleaned up. I potted Mount Athos, Ralphy took on the French topweights, but getting the others right proved a trickier task.....



My comments:

Green Moon - solid WFA performer throughout the spring, one flat run in the Cox Plate and I jumped off. Team Williams has done this several times before, and the silent trainer, Robert Hickmott, put the finishing touches on him. Dropped several kg down to the handicap, got the run to suit. All class.

Fiorente - said in my comments this one would be a great prospect for next year's Cup. He's now 10/1 in Sportsbet's opening market. Great performance.

Jakkalberry - amazed that C.O'Donoghue managed to find the fence more than anything. Classy beast who had no chance at Caulfield, ran home nicely in the inside fast lanes.

Kelinni - called him a lightweight hope, extremely honest, and he did just that.

Mount Athos - no luck early, settled too far back. Flew home late when it was all over. Might have won had he been closer, but that's a "coulda, shoulda, woulda" call - numerous others capable of same. Still reckon he was unders. Luca Cumani said he won't be back - I doubt too many believe him!

Glencadam Gold - got a remarkably easy lead and kept on going. First preparation in Aus, he can still improve.

Mourayan - good, honest run, finished about where I expected.

Red Cadeaux - worked home nicely, undone by the slow pace and lack of tactical speed.

Precedence - I doubted his merit to be in the race but he was the first local-bred horse home and picked up another $100k for finishing ninth.

My Quest For Peace - never going to win without a solid pace up front, he doesn't accelerate, just keeps on battling away.

Americain - finally beat Dunaden home, but missed out on a cheque by just missing the top 10. Hard ground didn't help, nor did the slow pace. Anything left to prove in his career?

Cavalryman - just not good enough

Voila Ici - didn't go forward, which led to the slow pace. Prefers softer ground.

Dunaden - stumbled early, stayed back and just plodded home. Perhaps being aimed at the Arc (2400m) and the weight took its toll.

Niwot - hadn't come up so far this spring and continued that.

Lights of Heaven - did a bit of work to get forward but the pace was slack, no excuse. Just didn't stay the distance.

Winchester & Sanagas - American plodders which hopefully give Aussie buyers the hint that buying stayers in North America, where they hardly race on turf or over distance, is a waste of money.

Maluckyday - just didn't fire.

Galileo's Choice - no excuses, had the perfect position in running, I was getting excited, but then couldn't accelerate, didn't like the firm ground.

Unusual Suspect - see Winchester & Sanagas

Zabeelionaire - poor, thought he might have made a move with his relatively light weight, but elected to follow Dunaden and nothing happened.

Tac De Boistron - surprised they even paid for the Cup considering how firm the track was on Saturday. Had no hope of winning, could only harm the horse. Needs to go to Sydney for the autumn - it always rains there!

Ethiopia - trainer's worst fears realised as the immature 4yo finished tailed off last, apparently sore. Hopefully it's nothing more than soreness and he'll be back better than ever next campaign.

-----------------

What the Jockeys Said, from Racenet

1st Green Moon (IRE) Brett Prebble That was super, he was outstanding. He's a machine, you can take him anywhere in the world and he's a high class animal. What can you say, I won a Melbourne Cup.

2nd Fiorente (IRE) James McDonald At the top of the straight I thought all my Christmases had come at once but it wasn't meant to be, his run peaked the last 100. Second's not bad.

3rd Jakkalberry (IRE) Colm O’Donoghue Delighted with him. We always thought he'd put up a big performance and he's showed what a good horse he is today. He ran a blinder in possibly one of the best fields in this race for a long time.

4th Kelinni (IRE) Glen Boss He gave me a great ride. He lacked class when Green Moon put the gap on him but he toughed it out right to the line.

5th Mount Athos (IRE) Ryan Moore The pace was too slow for my horse and he got a couple of big bumps coming into the straight but he ran really well and kept coming.

6th Glencadam Gold (IRE) Tommy Berry I couldn't have asked for a better run. He got found out the last 200 but we've got to remember this is his first preparation in Australia so next year could be his year.

7th Mourayan (IRE) Hugh Bowman I had the run of the race. He raced a little bit keen throughout but no excuses really.

8th Red Cadeaux (GB) Michael Rodd His run was amazing. They went too steady but he finished off really well. He's a gutsy horse.

9th Precedence (NZ) Blake Shinn It was a career best performance by him. We had a good run and he found the line really strongly.

10th My Quest For Peace (IRE) Corey Brown He ran good. He probably should have finished three, maybe four lengths, closer. The tempo took him out of his comfort zone and then he was left flat footed when they sprinted. He ran well.

11th Americain (USA) Damien Oliver Just the slow pace worked against him with the big weight when they sprinted but he still ran well.

12th Cavalryman (GB) Frankie Dettori All good.

13th Voila Ici (IRE) Vlad Duric Had a good run but he felt the ground.

14th Dunaden (FR) Craig Williams Nearly fell after the start, slow pace, big weight. He's probably a weight-for-age horse over a bit shorter now.

15th Niwot Dwayne Dunn He just hadn't bounced back off Caulfield. He had a beautiful run in transit but he didn't deliver.

16th Lights Of Heaven (NZ) Luke Nolen Didn't stay.

17th Winchester (USA) Jamie Mott He just never relaxed at all today. He was really fired up and was never going to get the trip.

18th Sanagas (GER) Nicholas Hall It wasn't my best ride but he may not have the turn of foot for Australian racing.

19th Maluckyday (NZ) Jim Cassidy I was never in it. He raced really below anywhere what he's been doing. I struggled a long way from home.

20th Galileo’s Choice (IRE) Patrick Smullen Beautiful position, I was happy with the first half of the race but when they quickened he didn't let himself down in the ground. He wants a good ease in the ground.

21st Unusual Suspect (USA) Glyn Schofield Went back from a wide gate with a slow tempo and that didn't suit him

22nd Zabeelionaire (NZ) Craig Newitt Disappointing. Had a good run at the back of the field, followed Dunaden into the race but he never seemed to make ground.

23rd Tac De Boistron (FR) Olivier Doleuze Not a lot of pace. I put him in a good spot but I was travelling a bit too easy. I wish there was a bit more rain.

Last Ethiopia Rhys McLeod He pulled up sore. When I asked for an effort he had no drive from behind.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...