Skip to main content

John Durkan Memorial Chase preview

No takers for Satuday's quality racing this week but there's a mighty fine race at Punchestown on Sunday. Blog regular Jon da Silva, @CreamOnTop, takes a closer look at a race which could have a significant impact on early prices for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

------------------------

Bubble time

The financial system has seen some bubbles burst and as we await the Bond market bust closer to hand Jump Racing's bubbles line up this weekend in Ireland and at Sandown. Investors and the vicarious will be getting anxious as Sprinter Sacre, Sanctuaire, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs do battle.

Evidence so far is last year's novices are Mustard and established chasers Sour Cream. Punchestown's John Durkan Memorial is a 4 runner affair but as good as you can get in Ireland if Sizing Europe is not running.

The 3rd season chaser Rubi Light at 2.5 miles chasing on Irish ground he's 171311 Better still the 3 he was handing Sizing a kicking and fell to be remounted. However he has twice been beaten in the Cathcart replacement showing useful but not top flight form in The Blue Riband of horses who don't get 3 miles or jump quickly. 7s first run of the season.

Bog Warrior is well named. Started last season like he would be the one beating Flemenstar 7 plus delivering facile wins in his next 2 completed starts. However the wheels fell off then with a drubbing by Flemenstar when surely not right. Fell when beaten on his comeback by Cristal Bonus. That was followed by a confidence booster over hurdles. He'll likely tank off and probably needs the deep ground. 12/1

Flemenstar is a star. Since Bog Warrior lowered his colours he has a string of near facile wins. He's even money. My doubt is that whilst he's clearly good and may stay further what has he beaten? Bog Warrior would have struggled to beat the Hunt Ball of two years ago that day. Frisco Depot has been uncompetitive since. Gift of DGab has not been super since. Murdering good old Big Zeb means what now? 3rd was Foildubh who is a yardstickers kind of horse. Nonetheless he's won and won easily.

Sir Des Champs is 5 from 5 over fences and like Alastair Cook even when he was awkward learning the game everyone had him pencilled in as one to follow. Capped off his first chase season by winning easily at Cheltenham and then stepping up to win 36L at Punchestown over 3 miles. He has heavy ground here to maybe bring him closer to speedier sorts. If Sir Des Champs can win or go close against three likely specialists at the distance he's looking very good. 15/8

No result would be a surprise so 12s Bog Warrior currently available is worth a bet (Paddy Power go 11/2). I'm also going for the Black Swan box exacta Bog Warrior and Rubi Light just in case.

Comments

  1. Well well we are in agreement - on the outsider of four being a bit of value:

    http://mikequigley.blogspot.co.uk/

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…