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John Durkan Memorial Chase preview

No takers for Satuday's quality racing this week but there's a mighty fine race at Punchestown on Sunday. Blog regular Jon da Silva, @CreamOnTop, takes a closer look at a race which could have a significant impact on early prices for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

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Bubble time

The financial system has seen some bubbles burst and as we await the Bond market bust closer to hand Jump Racing's bubbles line up this weekend in Ireland and at Sandown. Investors and the vicarious will be getting anxious as Sprinter Sacre, Sanctuaire, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs do battle.

Evidence so far is last year's novices are Mustard and established chasers Sour Cream. Punchestown's John Durkan Memorial is a 4 runner affair but as good as you can get in Ireland if Sizing Europe is not running.

The 3rd season chaser Rubi Light at 2.5 miles chasing on Irish ground he's 171311 Better still the 3 he was handing Sizing a kicking and fell to be remounted. However he has twice been beaten in the Cathcart replacement showing useful but not top flight form in The Blue Riband of horses who don't get 3 miles or jump quickly. 7s first run of the season.

Bog Warrior is well named. Started last season like he would be the one beating Flemenstar 7 plus delivering facile wins in his next 2 completed starts. However the wheels fell off then with a drubbing by Flemenstar when surely not right. Fell when beaten on his comeback by Cristal Bonus. That was followed by a confidence booster over hurdles. He'll likely tank off and probably needs the deep ground. 12/1

Flemenstar is a star. Since Bog Warrior lowered his colours he has a string of near facile wins. He's even money. My doubt is that whilst he's clearly good and may stay further what has he beaten? Bog Warrior would have struggled to beat the Hunt Ball of two years ago that day. Frisco Depot has been uncompetitive since. Gift of DGab has not been super since. Murdering good old Big Zeb means what now? 3rd was Foildubh who is a yardstickers kind of horse. Nonetheless he's won and won easily.

Sir Des Champs is 5 from 5 over fences and like Alastair Cook even when he was awkward learning the game everyone had him pencilled in as one to follow. Capped off his first chase season by winning easily at Cheltenham and then stepping up to win 36L at Punchestown over 3 miles. He has heavy ground here to maybe bring him closer to speedier sorts. If Sir Des Champs can win or go close against three likely specialists at the distance he's looking very good. 15/8

No result would be a surprise so 12s Bog Warrior currently available is worth a bet (Paddy Power go 11/2). I'm also going for the Black Swan box exacta Bog Warrior and Rubi Light just in case.

Comments

  1. Well well we are in agreement - on the outsider of four being a bit of value:

    http://mikequigley.blogspot.co.uk/

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete

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