Werribee Cup preview

The highest-class race in Victoria this weekend is Sunday's Werribee Cup. Once upon a time it run in the middle of the spring carnival but that has all changed since Werribee became the international quarantine centre. This calendar slot is a new one but it might prove to be the right timing. With the majority of horses coming out of either the Sandown or Ballarat Cups it makes for an intriguing contest. Time will tell.

Supplying the preview here is the team from Premium Punting, @premiumpunting

-------------

Werribee Cup

Unusual Suspect - Solid run in Sandown Cup. That produced a very high rating. Have queries of horses having "spike" ratings and haven't won for a while.

King Diamond - Did well to win the Ballarat Cup at big odds. Goes up 1.5kg on that run. Won at this dist. Needs to improve again on last start figure. Can consider.

I'm Jake - Bold run down inside in Sandown Cup. Only goes up 0.5kg here. Maps well. Ready to hit peak rating again. Each-way chance.

Pelicano - Really good run in Ballarat Cup. Only up 0.5kg and gets Boss on board who dominated country staying cups. Ready to peak and win here.

Apres - Good win in lowly graded race at Moonee Valley. Much harder here. If doesn't run on Friday night is hard to consider here.

Lucky Angel - Bolted in to finally get the win she was after last time. Harder race here and only drops 0.5kg with wide alley. Figures need to really improve.

Niptious - Figures nowhere near up to this.

Pace Analysis: The pace should be genuine with the small field. Niptious is the natural leader with a few horses looking to sit close behind.

Overview: Going with 4 here from 3, then 2,1

Recommended Bets: Using prices back 4 & 3

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog