Skip to main content

Blue Diamond Stakes preview

Change of tempo here. The Blue Diamond Stakes (sort of sponsored by Patinack Farm but they've gone bust and don't have to pay the bill until afterwards so I won't acknowledge them as the title sponsor) is Melbourne's best 2yo race and is worth a cool million dollars (about £650k on this week's exchange rate). With juveniles often unexposed, sometimes it's better to cut to the chase and deal with the facts, rather than hypothesise about how much they can improve etc. Enter the team from @premiumpunting with a succinct analysis of this cracking race.

If you haven't heard the story, the favourite Miracles Of Life is a real fairytale story in the making, tiny stable, female jockey who bides her time in the lesser lights of Adelaide and the filly has been very impressive to date, bolting in at each of her three starts. The bigger stables are hot on her heels though...

-----------------

Blue Diamond Stakes preview

TEMPO: Speed everywhere as expected with the Darley horses Montsegur & Metastasio probably leading from The Bowler & Miracles Of Life along the inside.

1. CRACK A ROADIE - Resumes. Was a scratching from Mornington 2yo race. Retains Williams on board. Will be at the rear of the field. Needs a lot of luck.

2. DISSIDENT - Did plenty wrong last start in Prelude. Blinkers applied for the big one. Wide alley and will go way back. Expecting big improvement. Should run home strongly.

3. SHAMUS AWARD - Solid return last start. Loses Boss and is yet to win a race from three attempts. Not sure if he can turn it around here.

4. THE BOWLER - Excellent debut run. Tony Vasil has a huge opinion of this colt. Will push forward again and blinkers applied. With luck can go close.

6. I AM TITANIUM - Blinkers go on but doubt it can turn the tables on some of these from last start.

7. FAST ‘N’ ROCKING - Hit the line well last start. Just doubt it has a better turn of foot than some of these to win.

8. GUELPH - Easy performance to win Preview. Very professional 2yo. Wide alley means it will probably stay out of trouble. McEvoy chooses this one. Hard to knock. Big chance.

9. METASTASIO - Very professional 2yo who won easily in both of its starts. Got high last start figure but was run in just below avg time. Will try and lead. Can't knock her yet.

10. MIRACLES OF LIFE - Awesome three wins to date. From inside alley can push up and settle handy. Explosive turn of foot. Freshened and is ready to go. Would be a great story. Top hope.

11. MONTSEGUR - Is the worser of the three Darley contenders. Loses Williams. Worried leading that it isn't good enough to sustain the run for another 100m from last start.

13. KONA BREEZE - It's figures from recent runs and inability to have the knockout punch to win makes her hard to consider.

14. GREGERS - Good debut win. Last week at Flemington the three that finished behind her fought out the finish there. Drops 2.5kg. Will be on pace. Knockout chance.

15. GODIVA ROCK - Nice debut run with little luck. Extra 100m suits. May get trapped from inside alley may find it tries and pushes up. Can only improve from last run.

16. QUEST FOR PEACE - Winkers applied but figures are very low for this race. Needs huge improvement.

Selections: Going with 10 here from 9,8,4 wider with 2 & 14 for quaddies and exotics.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…