Friday, 22 February 2013

Blue Diamond Stakes preview

Change of tempo here. The Blue Diamond Stakes (sort of sponsored by Patinack Farm but they've gone bust and don't have to pay the bill until afterwards so I won't acknowledge them as the title sponsor) is Melbourne's best 2yo race and is worth a cool million dollars (about £650k on this week's exchange rate). With juveniles often unexposed, sometimes it's better to cut to the chase and deal with the facts, rather than hypothesise about how much they can improve etc. Enter the team from @premiumpunting with a succinct analysis of this cracking race.

If you haven't heard the story, the favourite Miracles Of Life is a real fairytale story in the making, tiny stable, female jockey who bides her time in the lesser lights of Adelaide and the filly has been very impressive to date, bolting in at each of her three starts. The bigger stables are hot on her heels though...

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Blue Diamond Stakes preview

TEMPO: Speed everywhere as expected with the Darley horses Montsegur & Metastasio probably leading from The Bowler & Miracles Of Life along the inside.

1. CRACK A ROADIE - Resumes. Was a scratching from Mornington 2yo race. Retains Williams on board. Will be at the rear of the field. Needs a lot of luck.

2. DISSIDENT - Did plenty wrong last start in Prelude. Blinkers applied for the big one. Wide alley and will go way back. Expecting big improvement. Should run home strongly.

3. SHAMUS AWARD - Solid return last start. Loses Boss and is yet to win a race from three attempts. Not sure if he can turn it around here.

4. THE BOWLER - Excellent debut run. Tony Vasil has a huge opinion of this colt. Will push forward again and blinkers applied. With luck can go close.

6. I AM TITANIUM - Blinkers go on but doubt it can turn the tables on some of these from last start.

7. FAST ‘N’ ROCKING - Hit the line well last start. Just doubt it has a better turn of foot than some of these to win.

8. GUELPH - Easy performance to win Preview. Very professional 2yo. Wide alley means it will probably stay out of trouble. McEvoy chooses this one. Hard to knock. Big chance.

9. METASTASIO - Very professional 2yo who won easily in both of its starts. Got high last start figure but was run in just below avg time. Will try and lead. Can't knock her yet.

10. MIRACLES OF LIFE - Awesome three wins to date. From inside alley can push up and settle handy. Explosive turn of foot. Freshened and is ready to go. Would be a great story. Top hope.

11. MONTSEGUR - Is the worser of the three Darley contenders. Loses Williams. Worried leading that it isn't good enough to sustain the run for another 100m from last start.

13. KONA BREEZE - It's figures from recent runs and inability to have the knockout punch to win makes her hard to consider.

14. GREGERS - Good debut win. Last week at Flemington the three that finished behind her fought out the finish there. Drops 2.5kg. Will be on pace. Knockout chance.

15. GODIVA ROCK - Nice debut run with little luck. Extra 100m suits. May get trapped from inside alley may find it tries and pushes up. Can only improve from last run.

16. QUEST FOR PEACE - Winkers applied but figures are very low for this race. Needs huge improvement.

Selections: Going with 10 here from 9,8,4 wider with 2 & 14 for quaddies and exotics.

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