Skip to main content

Hobartville Stakes preview

It might be a tad wet in Sydney at the moment (nothing new for an autumn carnival, but the star 3yos are back out in force tomorrow in the G2 Hobartville Stakes at Rosehill Gardens. In charge of the preview this week is aspiring young writer Tom Stewart, @tstewcav26.

-----------------

2013 Hobartville Stakes:

The Hobartville Stakes is a Group Two race for three year olds over 1400m at set weights. It is generally a race that will provide a guide for the George Ryder Stakes and Doncaster mile in the upcoming autumn carnival. This year’s edition will provide an interesting gauge to the autumn carnival with star three year old Pierro returning. As a $1.80 favourite the market is centred around him and suggests that it may be a one-horse race, however I believe there is an up-and-coming star in this race and with the chance of a wet track, Pierro may come undone here.

#1 Pierro (9)- Nash Rawiller has labelled this horse as the best he has ever ridden. As a two year old he was dominant winning all of his six starts including the Triple Crown. As a three year old he continued to show his brilliance in his first two starts, however, once they got over a mile and further he was found wanting. He was run down by All Too Hard in the Caulfield Guineas and struggled to sprint in the Cox Plate when a gallant third. There’s no doubt that this horse is a champion and will be extremely hard to beat here. There isn’t a lot you can say against this horse, arguably his best win was over this distance and the race will be run to suit him. At rock-bottom odds he is the one to beat.

#2 It’s a Dundeel (3)- Another class horse resuming here. After a successful spring campaign where he was able to win the Spring Champion stakes against the promising Proisir, I think it’s safe to say that he is a classy horse. However, his best form will most likely be over a longer distance, as a son of High Chaparral, his likely target for the autumn will be the Australian Derby run over 2400m.. As a back-marker who likes to storm home, this race may be a bit short for him. What may work in his favour though is the likelihood of a slow or heavy track and a strong tempo. Not for me today.

#3 Tatra (10)- In my opinion he is significantly out-classed here. Without a doubt this horse has some ability, however this field is full of previous and future Group 1winners, I doubt he is up to this class. Despite winning the group 2 Sandown Guineas last spring, this is a massive step up and he hasn’t shown me enough to be competitive here. Having drawn barrier 10 is another factor that doesn’t help and I just can’t see him figuring here. Look for Brown to settle back from the wide barrier and struggle to make ground against this class of horses. Not a chance for me.

#4 Proisir (11)- This horse progressed from a Hawkesbury maiden to a Cox Plate last preparation. Despite coming eighth in the race, it was an outstanding training performance from Waterhouse to get this colt from a maiden to the premiere weight-for-age race in Australasia. Over this distance last preparation he was able to put Group One winner Norzita to the sword winning easily by two lengths at Rosehill. From the wide barrier Bowman will no doubt look to go forward and challenge Pierro and Mulaazem for the lead and control the race. He showed an exceptional turn of foot last preparation and if he is able to lead and set up a sit and sprint type race, he will be extremely hard to run down. Whether he will handle the wet is a query for me. Big chance!

#5 Sacred Falls (8)- Having his second run in Australia and second start under Chris Waller after an undefeated streak in New Zealand, he is an interesting runner and one to watch going forward. If his first up run suggested anything it is that he is looking for further and this distance will certainly suit him. As a colt out of O’Reilly, the wet weather will also assist his attempt to kick-start his Australian campaign. From barrier eight I’m sure Cassidy will drop back and let his horse relax and save him for a final burst in the straight off a moderate speed. Despite an impressive record in New Zealand I think this horse will be out classed here and may be left behind as the others sprint at the top of the straight.

#6 Ashokan (1)- This horse has promised the world and delivered an atlas. His best run was over this distance, with a gallant third behind Epaulette in the Golden Rose last year. However since then he has failed to deliver a similar performance and has got me thinking, maybe he isn’t up to this grade. Throughout most of his career he has been ridden as a horse on the speed or just off it and although he has run some good races, I believe it might be time to try a change in tactics. But from barrier Robl will most likely boot up again. This horse hasn’t showed anything for me and simply can’t win this race based on his past form.

#7 Rebel Dane (2)- I have a lot of time for this horse. I have been on him every start in his career and his will to win is unbelievable. One race that stands out for me was his third up win at Rosehill during the spring, despite being checked and blocked for runs continuously down the straight, once he was able to get a clear run he showed a serious turn of foot to gun down the leader in the last 50m of the race. His first up win this preparation showed the earmarks of a serious horse. After settling last in a race run to suit the front-runners, he showed a serious turn of foot to gun down the leader and win the race in great time. Obviously this is a huge step up and where he gets from barrier two will be interesting. However, he has shown he is able to win from just off the pace and from the rear and looks to be the value. He’s the up and coming horse with the fitness edge in this race. Rates on top here.

#8 Honorious (4)- Coming out of the same race that Rebel Dane ran in first up, he looks to be coming through with the right form. Although, like a few others resuming in this race he will be looking for further this autumn and his target races are further down the track. His second up record suggests that this run will be a tough ask and especially at this distance against this class of horse. From this barrier I expect Schofield to settle midfield and tail off towards the end of the field when the others sprint. Look for him to feature in the staying races throughout the autumn.

#9 Mulaazem (5)- Coming off a big win in the Group Two Autumn Stakes, he heads the charge from the Peter Moody stable. With Proisir and Pierro likely to be leading or up on the pace, this horse is another interesting runner who will look for the front or to sit outside the leader. As he did in the Autumn Stakes, Parr will try to burn the candle at both ends with this horse and pinch the race. With the continuing rain in Sydney his chances will get better. Despite the favourable conditions, the likelihood of a battle for the lead means he will not be able to dictate terms as easy as he did last start. Like a few others I think he lacks the class edge in this race and may be better suited running in Group Two and Group Three races this autumn. Not for me.

#10 Proverb (7)- This horse has the ability to be a Group 1 horse in my mind. He showed promise last preparation, however it was clear he had some issues -issues that may have been altered by his gelding. I believe this horse will be better suited over a longer distance and has the chance to win a Group One during his career at some stage. This race will be an interesting gauge to see how he is going and what his possible targets throughout the autumn will be. Not his race but follow this horse.

#11 Solemn (6)- I don’t see how this horse fits into this race. Obviously Snowden has an opinion of this horse because he wouldn’t be running him first up in a Group Two race for no reason. His runs last preparation and his recent trial suggest to me that he is nowhere near this grade and despite what Peter Snowden may believe, I’m going off what I know. The form and races I have seen don’t put this horse in the same league as Pierro and Proisir. I want to read Peter Snowden’s mind and find out what his plan is with this horse because he must have turned a corner. Not for me.

Recommended Bets:

Everyone I have spoken to about this race is tipping Pierro and when I tell them that Rebel Dane will beat him, they simply laugh at me. Perhaps I will be wrong and Pierro will win as expected, however, this is racing and everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I have a lot of time for Rebel Dane and believe he is a Group One horse in the making. This Saturday should cap a big autumn carnival for this horse, win or lose. So for that reason I will be backing Rebel Dane to win!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…