Skip to main content

Betfair Bowl preview

Aintree Festival time and what a cracking day to kick it off. Never mind the impossible handicap that grabs all the attention on Saturday, there is genuine Grade 1 action on Thursday and Friday at Aintree. If you fancy yourself as a bit of a writer, or just want to have a crack at a preview, I have most races still available if you are interested. Send me your details in the comments, I won't publish it but will contact you directly.

Previewing the Grade 1 Chase which has been known as the Betfair Bowl, Totesport Bowl and no doubt several other names over the years, is blog regular Jon da Silva, @creamontop.

---------------------

Betfred Bowl Chase, Grade 1.

3 miles 1f
Good Ground expected


There is a suggestion this race is the graveyard of horses who've run well at Cheltenham. However having opposed many of those who ran badly here I generally thought there were reasons to bar trends. Take Denman who never could take a tight bend and Imperial Commander who probably could not either nor back up a run. Kauto increasingly had to be fresh said his trainer before throwing him a few weeks later at this race.

As such Silviniaco Conti and First Lieutenant stand out on form. The former won a Grade 1 and 2 before falling when in contention for the Gold Cup. The latter led both the Hennessey and the Lexus and was only denied by the strong finish of Tidal Bay in Ireland. His form at an easier 3 mile trip than the Gold Cup is right there even if he leaves a suspicion he cruises but does not finish. Main negative is he's had five runs to Conti's three. Was outpaced rather than run to a stop last time at Cheltenham. Silviniaco fell three out in the Gold Cup.

You can make a case for The Giant Bolster on good ground but till he shows his best form on a flat track I will ignore. On ratings he's right there and maybe on faster ground he would have challenged the front three at Cheltenham. If anyone had a hard race to exhaustion it was him. 9/1.

Quito de la Roque (QdlR) has won over course and distance on good ground. The form of his and that year's novices does not match last year's in my view - beat Sarando (who?) a neck. Beat Sizing Europe in a Grade 1 so like Follow the Plan maybe under rated. 10/1 for those who want to do the missed Cheltenham thing.

Menorah beats any attempt to describe his preferences. Arguably was the least poorly suited to a grade 2 on heavy at Kempton over 21 furlongs and is thus not forlorn at 14s even if pulled up last time. Not one I could tip with any confidence. Not shown he gets three miles either.

Cape Tribulation was not disgraced in the Gold Cup and previously collected the Argento. 10/1. Hard to read but does not quite look a Grade 1 animal to me. Seems more of a staying type than required here.

Wayward Prince has a ton to find on most form. Beaten by QdlR here 2 years ago under similar conditions. Did beat QdlR in December over course and distance and beat The Giant Bolster raw here in a novice hurdle years ago. Could make an EW case if as in other years I expected several of the top ones to have an off day but I don't. Maybe a Place only bet ? 66/1

Whodoyouthink may not have a great chance of winning but could take Silviniaco on up front. Again if you are down on the favs a Black Swan place candidate. 100/1.

Conclusion

First Lieutenant has better form than twice beating The Giant Bolster 7L on a flat track like the 10/11 Silviniacio Conti IMO but not on ratings I accept. First Lieutenant comes not from the Gold Cup and is at worst the 2nd best horse in this race. I think trip and track and ground will not faze him. I would have him closer to the favourite in the betting. Of those missing Cheltenham or in Menorah's case went missing I have most confidence in Quito de la Roque.

First Lieutenant 7/2 is the value for me.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. ===============================================
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengths behind P…

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2019

We're back again for the greatest race on turf, the world's richest staying race and the only race in the world which creates a public holiday for millions of locals.




Once again a fine international field has been assembled and it's worth a deep look at the race. So get a cuppa and find a comfortable seat to plough your way through my preview!

--------------------------------

The Lexus Melbourne Cup
Group 1, Handicap, 3200m
AUD 7,750,000
Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT
Broadcasters - Network 10 (AUS), Racing.com (worldwide), SkySportsRacing (UK)


1. Cross Counter
Trainer - Charlie Appleby (one previous Cup win)
Jockey - William Buick
Breeding - Teofilo - Waitress
Drawn 5, Weight 57.5kg

Last year's impressive winner who doesn't get the 3yo weight advantage this time. Won first up at Meydan in March but has run fourth, third, fourth in the big set weights staying races in England and Ireland, never quite making it as the next big staying star. While running close behind Stradivar…