Punchestown - Ryanair Novice Chase preview

The Novice Chase ranks are quite strong this year and a quality lineup graces Punchestown for the second feature of Thursday. Another new guest previewer steps up to the podium, Pat Conlon, NH racing enthusiast from Co.Meath. Follow him @woodlane1

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On day three of the Punchestown festival, the Ryanair Novice Chase sees some of our best novices going head to head.

Benefficent from the Tony Martin yard seems to be the one they will have to beat. He made all the running in the Jewson in Cheltenham on March 14th to beat the solid favourite on the day Dynaste. The shorter trip will not bother him and jockey of the moment Bryan Cooper is a very able pilot.

Willie Mullins sends out Arvika Ligeonniere. While you shouldn’t discount a Mullins horse, I think this one has lost its form a bit, coming off the back of a tough race at Cheltenham where he was pulled up and in Leopardstown in January where he fell in the race won by Benefficent.

The Henry De Bromhead trained Special Tiara showed how gutsy he was by beating Overturn and Alderwood with the latter running in this race as well over at Aintree two weeks ago. It will be interesting to see how he has came out of that race. Alderwood was flat enough at Aintree and would need to step up a bit to win here. Mark Walsh deputises for the injured AP McCoy.

If you discount Texas Jack's run at Cheltenham and focus on him being beaten by a nose by Boston Bob on Hennessy day at Leopardstown in Feb, he could be excellent value at around 14/1.

Realt Mor from the in form Elliot yard seems to be the pick of the rest.

With a pot of €62,000 to the winner it's all to race for. The Ryanair gets underway at 6.40pm.

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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