Skip to main content

The BMW preview

Sydney's big day of racing this Saturday, and like clockwork, it's been raining in the Harbour City this week.... heavily. Rosehill Gardens is out to the west a bit so might not have copped all of it, but at time of writing, the track is out to a Heavy 8 with more rain scheduled for race day. Chipping in with a preview of Sydney's premier WFA staying race is blog regular Kieron Fitzgerald, @kjob85.

----------------

The BMW

Run on Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill Gardens, the BMW is Australia's richest weight-for-age race run over 2400 metres. The race has been won by some true champions in the past including Kingston Town, Octagonal, Might and Power, Tie The Knot and Makybe Diva (also some far less classy beasts at any old odds such as Fiumicino, Blutigeroo, Freemason and Curata Storm - Ed.). It is usually a highlight of Australia's richest race day.

1. Foreteller
Foreteller has been in good from lately, with wins this prep in the G2 Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield and his first G1 victory two weeks ago at Rosehill in the Ranvet Stakes, with a disappointing seventh in between those races in the Australian Cup. While his form of late has been strong, he may struggle at this extra distance, with his wins having been between 1400m-2000m. If the rain keeps up in Sydney, this should help him as his form in the wet is quite good. I wouldn't rule him out but he will need a lot to go right to win.

2. Mawingo
A G1 winner at the Doomben Cup in 2012, Mawingo has had mixed results in his autumn campaign, including finishing behind horses he is racing against here. He is unproven in the wet and on recent form, I can't see him breaking through here.

3. Niwot
Niwot finished fourth in this race last year before going on to win the Sydney Cup a few weeks later. This was followed by a disappointing spring campaign and his form this prep has also been mixed so far, however his best form usually comes at around this stage in his fourth or fifth-up race. He quite likes wet tracks which will help him if the rain continues to pour in Sydney as forecast. Niwot is a battler and I would not rule him out.

4. Kelinni
After an impressive spring campaign including a fourth place in the Melbourne Cup, Kelinni has also had mixed fortunes this autumn. He has won over this distance at this track before and should be included in the chances in what is one of the weaker renewals of this race.

5. Maluckyday
Another local favourite, Maluckyday has been racing well this autumn, and based on his past form he should be in good fitness for this race. He is a proven staying performer and is a real chance here at decent odds.

6. Gatewood
While he performed strongly in the UK, Gatewood hasn't really fired since coming to Australia, with one win in an underwhelming Geelong Cup. His performances this prep have not been strong and he will need to improve here.

7. Kutchinsky
Kutchinsky must be nearing the end of his prep, as he has been racing since October without a break. He has recorded some wins in this time including at black type level, however they have been against weaker horses than some of his contemporaries here. Having drawn an outside barrier and with poor form in the wet, he will need a lot of luck on his side to break through here.

8. Sangster
The winner of the 2011 Victoria Derby over 2500m, Sangster has performed strongly racing in New Zealand recently. He is a proven staying horse and on his New Zealand form he could do well here. However, at his last start he finished seventh to a number of horses running here and that could indicate that he is reaching the end of his prep.

9. Le Roi
A lightly raced German import at only eight starts, Le Roi has won five of those, and is racing second-up here after a third place last start at this track. He has performed particularly well in Morphettville and while the step up in class should be too much for him to win, there are attractive place odds available that are worth a look.

10. Hathras
Another lightly raced import (this time from Britain), Hathras has raced six times for three wins, one second and two third placings. He has started at the second-tier in the markets but this is a big jump in class for him, being in his first race in stakes company. Hathras is a bit of a wildcard, with his last race being a midweek race against average competition but having won it by nine lengths. Having drawn the outside barrier, it is a big ask to win but he is worth including in the multiples.

11. Silent Achiever
Silent Achiever has won over this distance before in New Zealand, and is well-weighted here. She has performed reasonably well this prep, finishing fourth and fifth in her last two starts against many of the horses that she faces here. I wouldn't rule her out completely, particularly if the track is wet.

12. Fiveandahalfstar
One of the current crop of exciting three-year-old horses and the only one of those in this race, Fiveandahalfstar has opened as the clear favourite in this race. Following a spell after last year's win in the Victoria Derby, this prep has frustratingly yielded four second placings from four starts for the gelding, but this may be the race where he breaks through. The wet may be a problem for him but he appears the horse to beat here.

Suggested Bet
The field in this race is quite evenly matched, with the markets clearly preferring Fiveandahalfstar at the early stage. He is the horse to beat, but the wet track factor may make the $3 about him a bit of a risk. The other chances are Silent Achiever, Niwot (at very big odds) and Maluckyday. Each offers good place odds, so take Fiveandahalfstar with one of them at a place as a saver. In your quaddie, include all of these but also Le Roi, Hathras and Kelinni.

Fiveandahalfstar
Maluckyday
Silent Achiever
Niwot

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…