Skip to main content

Warrnambool day 2 preview

Plenty more racing to come from Warrnambool. TheTrialFiles, @thetrialfiles return with a selection of races on the card. For the full preview, including a couple of blackbookers running at Warwick Farm today, visit their site.

--------------------

The Trial Files (www.thetrialfiles.com) is a unique and revolutionary trial service that gives punters a vital edge over the competition through the thorough analysis of Vic, NSW and SA barrier trials.
At the trial files we use a combination of digital sectional times along with an understanding of the effort a horse is exerting in a trial to compile a comprehensive assessment of all trials run in Vic, NSW and SA.
Trial Files will identify the horses to follow, and conversely the horses who will start under the odds and be suitable “lay” bets. Our experts will assess the races our “blackbooked” horses appear in and provide betting advice accordingly. Whilst it is great to identify horses who trial well, or poorly, at Trial Files we acknowledge that the horses need to be in their right races, so we follow them right through to raceday for our clients. The fact that punters so prevalently ignore and or don’t have access to barrier trials as a form tool, creates huge value in backing, and laying, horses who are coming through such trials. The Trial Files have identified over long periods of research that these horses provide the best value betting propositions and have subsequently created an exciting service for you, the punter.

Warrnambool Carnival Day Two
Another massive day with the feature on the flat being the Wangoom Handicap, which has assembled a crackerjack field headed by last year’s winner, Second Effort. No TTF blackbookers going around at the ‘Bool, but we have previewed all flat races once more.

Firstly, the quaddie for the ‘Bool, and let’s hope we are more successful than yesterday where we missed the first leg only!
1st Leg – 1,3,4,5,11
2nd Leg – 2,3,5,6,10,17 (add number 1if track slow or worse)
3rd Leg – 1,4,5,7
4th Leg – 1,2,4,9,12

WARRNAMBOOL Race 6
Selections – MITFORD SISTER and STARS IN THE SKY at the value from REDDAMOUR
First leg of the quaddie and let’s hope we at least make it past this point today. A very smart bunch of 3YOs assembled here over the 1400M. FOURDAYS OF MYLIFE and REDDAMOUR are the clear speed horses with TEXTILES coming across and look for the trail. MITFORD SISTER looks the next in line.
Once again looking for the value here with MITFORD SISTER ($9 fixed) and STARS IN THE SKY ($12 fixed). MITFORD SISTER should have won by a lot further at Mornington, she was held up until the last 100M when she burst through for a good win. She is suited up to 1400M, gets a lovely run and the 2kg claim for Ay brings her in with 52.5kg.
STARS IN THE SKY was allowed to flop out of the barriers last start from a wide draw after racing on pace at its previous start. He got a long way out of his ground but once he picked up the bit he really exploded but was held up terrible once motoring. That run signalled a return to form and his best is definitely good enough to win this event. Promote even further if horses are starting to win out wide, which often happens late on the second day. The other main player is REDDAMOUR won by 6L two starts back where it was noted in the steward’s report that he “attempted to savage another runner”. He then went to Sandown and was backed off the map before running second. He was OK in that affair and his racing style will see him prominent early here.

WARRNAMBOOL Race 8
Selections – EL DIVINE one of the better bets on the programme with a save on YOKOZUNA. FIVE O’CLOCK next best.
ROAD TO SUMMER and SONGSPUR will battle for the lead, and this could set a frantic tempo. MANGO MOJITO is going to want to be very handy from barrier two and ZACHARY QUACK is up to 1400M for the first time in a while and always like to race on pace. They will go very quickly here and the race will be setup for something to come from the second half of the field.
Pretty keen on EL DIVINE here. He will get a nice trail just beyond midfield, and will importantly get a strong tempo, as she pulled badly two starts back when the tempo wasn’t suitable. He enjoys a little sting out of the ground which he will get today and his last run was full of merit at Donald when unlucky not to finish closer. Really looks one of the standout bets of the day at around $5.
YOKOZUNA is the clear danger. He is currently $9, and that is over the odds. He showed a return to form last start and is another who likes to get back and run on. He has a tremendous record at the ‘Bool and is not too badly in after the claim against this field.
FIVE O’CLOCK is best ridden cold off a hot pace and the cards fall his way today, he can definitely be in the finish.
ROAD TO SUMMER goes into the quaddie as the best of the frontrunners.


WARRNAMBOOL Race 9 – Like OCEAN MIST, happy to back her the WIN with something on FASHION WAH WAH at odds.
Selections
The curtain falls on another day. Assuming that GENERAL ORDERS will be scratched here after racing on Tuesday. Looks as though Jake Bayliss will lead on FASHION WAH WAH and fancy MR SPEAKER will come over from its wide draw and sit outside the leader. LOVEMELONGTIME and COSMIC DEMON will be next in line and then there is a host of runners who like to race handy to midfield.
If the track is no worse than dead then OCEAN MIST might just be a good thing here. She won three on the trot in her first campaign and then was reported not to handle the heavy track at her only subsequent run. She had a noticeably quiet trial at Hamilton recently, but did look to be in good order. She will settle just forward of midfield with a lovely trail and can come over the top of the leaders.
FASHION WAH WAH looks the best of the on-pacers and might represent huge value in the race. She has raced at the ‘Bool on seven occasions for three wins and three seconds and if it is an advantage to be on speed then her chances increase hugely.
AWAKEN THE DRAGON won a stronger race in town last time out, but has the 60kg and a wide draw here and faces a tough task. By the same token he needs to go in the quaddie, as does COSMIC DEMON who is nothing is not consistent.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…