A rare appearance for one of my previews on the blog here. The more I looked at this race, the more I felt like writing it all out in detail, so here we go for the feature race on Super Saturday at Morphettville.
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The Goodwood
Always debatable whether this deserves to be classed as a Group I but it's pretty decent race this year. Not much time so let's run through the field.
1 - Moment of Change.
I know Peter Moody rates this horse very highly and so do many others but I just don't see it. He is a classy gelding but is he a genuine elite sprinter? His handicap rating is only 108 which isn't even the best in this field. His record is five wins and five placings from 12 starts. Solid, but deserving of an even money or 5/4 quote in a G1 carrying 585.kg, even in Adelaide? Could come out and win this by five, but I can't have him at the price.
2 - Platelet.
Great win last start in the Robert Sangster where the odds-on favourite Snitzerland disappointed. Very genuine but she's carrying the same weight as the toppie, minus the mares' allowance. I know this is set weights & penalties now as opposed to the old handicap scale but she has to concede 4kg against two horses who finished within two lengths of her last time. Weir and Melham are running hot at the moment, with the favourite so short, she's at a backable price.
3 - General Truce.
Has had eight attempts at 1200m without winning. Being ridden differently these days, he flew home to win over 1100 here in the McKay a fortnight ago. I wouldn't be backing him to break that duck in a G1.
4 - Outlandish Lad
Veteran sprinter who had the fastest last 200m sectional of the race when sixth behind Kulgrinda and Platelet in the Irwin Stakes a month ago. Drawn a slightly better gate, would need plenty of luck to win, but I've seen plenty of 40/1 shots with far poorer prospects.
5 - Galah
Drawn the car park, and hasn't won in his last eight starts (won four of first seven). Promised so much as a 3yo, I can't go near him these days.
6 - Riziz
Local sprinter who won the feature sprint at Oakbank over Easter. Would need to improve 20L to win this then. Worse off at weights against horses who finished ahead of him last time in the McKay. Trainer and jockey have each only won two of their last 50 races.
7 - Facile Tigre
Can't be an easy horse to train. Just 20 starts in the latter half of his six year-old season, with seven wins under his belt. Placed in the Oakleigh Plate two years running, and hasn't run for 11 weeks since. Jason McLachlan has reportedly had this race lined up for him for some time, rather than taking on the big guns in Queensland at wfa (bear in mnid, there was a chance Black Caviar was going to Brisbane for today's feature). His handicap rating is four points less than Moment of Change which means he gets in 2kg light here. I think it is perfect for him.
8 - Amaethon
Very honest horse who deserves a crack at a G1. Meets General Truce 5kg better for beating him a long neck six weeks ago. Has carried 60.5kg at his last two runs, the six keg drop will be appreciated and his jockey Damian Lane is flying at the moment, and just like the horse, has earned a crack at a big prize. Barrier 14 not ideal.
10 - Zedi Knight
Veteran sprinter who would need all the planets in alignment and a shortcut to beat this field.
12 - Conservatorium
Home track specialist who has won five from nine here, albeit in lesser company. Beat home British General here in November, giving that horse 8kg, and Melbourne racing fans will be aware of how good that horse is now. Hasn't won in his last eight starts, is drawn the extreme outside but his trainer was keen on his chances when interviewed this week. With a bit of luck, that 50/1 available is worth a look.
13 - Perturbo
Not won for a while and form looks poor on the surface. Was checked out of the race last time at MV so scrap that. Previous two runs were solid in Listed company. Jockey in great form (10 wins in last 50 rides), trainer is not (three wins in last 50).
14 - Justify That
Wide gate, trainer and jockey completely out of their depth. Deservedly triple figure odds.
15 - Karacatis
The dark horse with difficult form to line up. Only once out of the top two in 11 starts. Stepped out of restricted class last time to beaten a nose by General Truce, after sitting four wide for much of the trip. Got to have a solid chance here, just concerns me he is on the same weight as proven city winners such as Facile Tigre and Amaethon.
16 - Meadows Jim
Three wins from 23, just one from 13 at Morphettville. Great run to finish fourth at 100/1 behind Kulgrinda and Platelet at wfa in the Irwin (meets Platelet 4kg better here for 1.9L defeat) but that's the exception rather than the norm. Massive price for a reason.
17 - Yosei
Has earned $1.25m for just four wins from 33 starts, but three of them have been G1s. Huge run last start at wfa, now drops to 52.5kg, meeeting Platelet 4kg better also, for under a length defeat. Always needs luck as she comes from behind but can only be classed as a genuine chance with reasonable fortunes in running.
18 - Altar
Another meeting Platelet 4kg better for under 2L defeat and didn't have the clearest of runs late. Just one victory from 13 starts (a G2) but has rarely run in a weak race. Last three starts have been G3, G2, G1 but I don't think any of them were significantly weaker than this. The former two races were won by Arinosa in Sydney who has been a revelation this autumn. Trainer/jockey combined strike rate of 27%, must be given serious thought.
SPEED
The pace map has to be consulted. Zedi Knight and Moment of Change likely to go forward> Altar has to come across from 15, but should be able to slot in just behind them, and ahead of Facile Tigre Karacatis and Amaethon. Yosei will drop the tail and rely on the field spreading in the straight to get a crack at the leaders.
SELECTIONS
Ignoring two of the three favourites on the front lines, so if we can cop this trifecta, it will pay plenty.
Facile Tigre & Altar for the win
add Amaethon & Karacatis for second
add 1,2,4,12,17 for third
7,18 x 7,8,15,18 x 1,2,4,7,8,12,15,17,18 = $42 for 100%
and backing Facile Tigre (7.0) for the win, Altar (19.0) each-way.
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The Goodwood
Always debatable whether this deserves to be classed as a Group I but it's pretty decent race this year. Not much time so let's run through the field.
1 - Moment of Change.
I know Peter Moody rates this horse very highly and so do many others but I just don't see it. He is a classy gelding but is he a genuine elite sprinter? His handicap rating is only 108 which isn't even the best in this field. His record is five wins and five placings from 12 starts. Solid, but deserving of an even money or 5/4 quote in a G1 carrying 585.kg, even in Adelaide? Could come out and win this by five, but I can't have him at the price.
2 - Platelet.
Great win last start in the Robert Sangster where the odds-on favourite Snitzerland disappointed. Very genuine but she's carrying the same weight as the toppie, minus the mares' allowance. I know this is set weights & penalties now as opposed to the old handicap scale but she has to concede 4kg against two horses who finished within two lengths of her last time. Weir and Melham are running hot at the moment, with the favourite so short, she's at a backable price.
3 - General Truce.
Has had eight attempts at 1200m without winning. Being ridden differently these days, he flew home to win over 1100 here in the McKay a fortnight ago. I wouldn't be backing him to break that duck in a G1.
4 - Outlandish Lad
Veteran sprinter who had the fastest last 200m sectional of the race when sixth behind Kulgrinda and Platelet in the Irwin Stakes a month ago. Drawn a slightly better gate, would need plenty of luck to win, but I've seen plenty of 40/1 shots with far poorer prospects.
5 - Galah
Drawn the car park, and hasn't won in his last eight starts (won four of first seven). Promised so much as a 3yo, I can't go near him these days.
6 - Riziz
Local sprinter who won the feature sprint at Oakbank over Easter. Would need to improve 20L to win this then. Worse off at weights against horses who finished ahead of him last time in the McKay. Trainer and jockey have each only won two of their last 50 races.
7 - Facile Tigre
Can't be an easy horse to train. Just 20 starts in the latter half of his six year-old season, with seven wins under his belt. Placed in the Oakleigh Plate two years running, and hasn't run for 11 weeks since. Jason McLachlan has reportedly had this race lined up for him for some time, rather than taking on the big guns in Queensland at wfa (bear in mnid, there was a chance Black Caviar was going to Brisbane for today's feature). His handicap rating is four points less than Moment of Change which means he gets in 2kg light here. I think it is perfect for him.
8 - Amaethon
Very honest horse who deserves a crack at a G1. Meets General Truce 5kg better for beating him a long neck six weeks ago. Has carried 60.5kg at his last two runs, the six keg drop will be appreciated and his jockey Damian Lane is flying at the moment, and just like the horse, has earned a crack at a big prize. Barrier 14 not ideal.
10 - Zedi Knight
Veteran sprinter who would need all the planets in alignment and a shortcut to beat this field.
12 - Conservatorium
Home track specialist who has won five from nine here, albeit in lesser company. Beat home British General here in November, giving that horse 8kg, and Melbourne racing fans will be aware of how good that horse is now. Hasn't won in his last eight starts, is drawn the extreme outside but his trainer was keen on his chances when interviewed this week. With a bit of luck, that 50/1 available is worth a look.
13 - Perturbo
Not won for a while and form looks poor on the surface. Was checked out of the race last time at MV so scrap that. Previous two runs were solid in Listed company. Jockey in great form (10 wins in last 50 rides), trainer is not (three wins in last 50).
14 - Justify That
Wide gate, trainer and jockey completely out of their depth. Deservedly triple figure odds.
15 - Karacatis
The dark horse with difficult form to line up. Only once out of the top two in 11 starts. Stepped out of restricted class last time to beaten a nose by General Truce, after sitting four wide for much of the trip. Got to have a solid chance here, just concerns me he is on the same weight as proven city winners such as Facile Tigre and Amaethon.
16 - Meadows Jim
Three wins from 23, just one from 13 at Morphettville. Great run to finish fourth at 100/1 behind Kulgrinda and Platelet at wfa in the Irwin (meets Platelet 4kg better here for 1.9L defeat) but that's the exception rather than the norm. Massive price for a reason.
17 - Yosei
Has earned $1.25m for just four wins from 33 starts, but three of them have been G1s. Huge run last start at wfa, now drops to 52.5kg, meeeting Platelet 4kg better also, for under a length defeat. Always needs luck as she comes from behind but can only be classed as a genuine chance with reasonable fortunes in running.
18 - Altar
Another meeting Platelet 4kg better for under 2L defeat and didn't have the clearest of runs late. Just one victory from 13 starts (a G2) but has rarely run in a weak race. Last three starts have been G3, G2, G1 but I don't think any of them were significantly weaker than this. The former two races were won by Arinosa in Sydney who has been a revelation this autumn. Trainer/jockey combined strike rate of 27%, must be given serious thought.
SPEED
The pace map has to be consulted. Zedi Knight and Moment of Change likely to go forward> Altar has to come across from 15, but should be able to slot in just behind them, and ahead of Facile Tigre Karacatis and Amaethon. Yosei will drop the tail and rely on the field spreading in the straight to get a crack at the leaders.
SELECTIONS
Ignoring two of the three favourites on the front lines, so if we can cop this trifecta, it will pay plenty.
Facile Tigre & Altar for the win
add Amaethon & Karacatis for second
add 1,2,4,12,17 for third
7,18 x 7,8,15,18 x 1,2,4,7,8,12,15,17,18 = $42 for 100%
and backing Facile Tigre (7.0) for the win, Altar (19.0) each-way.
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