Skip to main content

Norfolk Stakes preview

Time for me to step in again for one of the bigger juvenile races. Nice race this, quite a few with a decent chance.


Norfolk Stakes

Ambiance - last start win at Ripon didn't look overly special, I doubt we'll be seeing too many of those rivals in championship races in the future. The one thing that I am wary of though is he started at 3/1 on debut behind Championship, a well-regarded Hannon colt, who was right in the market in the Coventry, and there were several others from decent stables in that field. Thus he must have been showing a bit on the gallops at some stage. He's been seen in public twice, around 50 on Betfair, prepared to risk him.

Coach House - odds-on at all three starts, won a Listed race at The Curragh last time beating Club Wexford who ran third behind Stubbs and Sacha Park the start after, both of whom failed to trouble the bookies on Tuesday. Win was OK but wasn't bolting clear, did it on a good-to-firm track. Where does he rank amongst the Ballydoyle juvenile crop who also owned first and third in the Coventry? Wouldn't be diving in at the 3/1 on Betfair.

Coulsty - bolted in at Leicester on debut in quick time, lengthening stride nicely when Moore pulled the whip. The runner-up franked that form by winning nicely at Lingfield on the weekend and fourth has also broken his maiden since. Looked professional, strong chance.

Eccleston - won very easily on debut at Doncaster a month ago, was held up behind runners, needed to squeeze through on the rail and then coasted home, could have won by panels. Second and third have since won, but Tableforten (second) also ran 17th in the Windsor Castle on Tuesday. Stable produced a nice one in Parbold in the Coventry, this bloke can't be far behind.

Emirates Flyer - won on debut at Bath which seems like Godolphin don't have a high opinion of him. Form behind him looks ordinary, would need a massive step up to trouble these.

Extreme Supreme - home-bred colt whose best asset might be the outside rail if the rain comes and it chops up. Trainer has one 2yo win from 119 runs in past five years. No chance.

Green Door - not just a Shakin' Stevens song but a decent chance at a nice price here. Debuted in a smart maiden at Newbury behind Justice Day and Steventon Star then won impressively at Newmarket. Trainer Olly Stevens is running hot with a Royal Ascot winner in his first season and the backing of Qatar Racing.

Ifwecan - fourth behind Thunder Strike at Epsom, with that colt just missing a place in the Coventry. Like many of the Exceed and Excel breed, he has already shown form down the straight with an easy win here a month ago. Up in class but a place chance at odds.

Legend Rising - picking off easy targets to win his last two starts. Formline through Piazon suggests he may be a few lengths inferior to Green Door unless plenty kept up his sleeve.

No Nay Never - US colt reputed to be the best of the visiting Wesley Ward juveniles. After that stable racked up a placing in the Queen Mary today, that makes this one a live chance. Will he beat the rain though? Any dirt-bred horse is a query on rain-affected turf. Market hasn't missed him, trading around 5/1 already.

Oriental Relation - at only start, was third behind Andhesontherun who has form through Rizeena and was beaten about four lengths in the Windsor Forest. Will come on for that, not the worst 250 shot you've seen on Betfair!

Royal Mezyan - beaten a couple of lengths behind Ifwecan on debut then a little closer behind Reroute (fifth in the Queen Mary), conceding 5lbs. Thought that was a pretty decent run, but stable jockey Liam Jones sticks with Saayyer. Looks overs at the price.

Saayyer - unbeaten colt, but struggled to get past Lilbourne Lass last start who's not up to these. Would rather be on the stablemate at the odds.

Wind Fire - in same ownership as Green Door and beaten 4l by him on debut. Improvement shown last start but needs to step up further again to win this.

Can't have the favourite here but they have racked up a few winners this week already. Eccleston could be something special and a couple of big-priced options for the exotics.

In order:
Green Door
Royal Mezyan
Oriental Relation
No Nay Never


Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.


Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.


Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
1510 local 0010 AEST

What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…