The time-honoured Royal Hunt Cup is close to the toughest race of the week to single out a bet and a winner. Good luck if you can find it by solely weeding through the form. Dave McAulay, @formbet, prefers the trends approach. Read more of his work on the Formbet site.
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Royal Hunt Cup
I actually wanted some confirmation from another alternative, non-ratings angle to give a secondary bet in this race as it’s a bloody minefield without a method to use! Forget ‘form’ analysis in this size field, you will tie yourself in total knots.
If you haven’t yet availed yourself of the wonderful historical trends that are posted on the Racecaller forum I suggest you do so now and get stuck in to the data and perform your own trends analysis. I thought I would put up my own method of performing trends analysis which has nailed many big-priced winners over the last few years including three of the last four Irish Grand National winners at 33/1, 40/1 and 50/1 – not bad for a fundamentally flawed approach !
So let’s start with the elimination method and focus on the stronger stats and work our way down till we have a shortlist -:
10/10 Carried between 8-8 and 9-5
10/10 Aged four to six
10/10 Career high RPR of 99+ in one of last three starts
10/10 Won over a mile
9/10 Official Rating between 93 and 102
9/10 Ran in last 45 days
9/10 Finished in first four of one of last two starts
9/9 Drawn 11 or higher
Believe it or not those simple filters just take 5 minutes to run through using the Racing Post to get the shortlist down to just four runners for further analysis. Those four runners are -:
TWO FOR TWO
EDUCATE
SPA’S DANCER
CAPTAIN BERTIE
This is the whole point of ‘trends’ based on historical trends of winners. If you do this in the big races each year you will make a profit over time. For me personally making a long-term profit in horse racing is all about exploiting different angles, unique data analysis, being selective and focusing on value.
This is just a method of shortlisting either for sole betting or confirmation/strength using other angles ¦it is not designed to be rocket science or an exercise in showing how clever you are, fact is that anybody can do this thanks to the very useful and free stats resources over at Racecaller forum and a few minutes time.
So let’s now examine the 8/10 stats to see if we can reduce these four further.
8/10 Won a Class 3 or better
8/10 Won three or fewer handicaps
There is also an argument for focusing on those who are drawn 20+ as this has provided seven of the last nine winners at Royal Ascot which would be a slight black mark against Educate. For me it’s always nice when a black mark is against the shortest priced one on the shortlist.
Another negative for Educate is that he has won four handicaps which is more than the ideal three ‘trend’. This may seem pedantic, just as ruling out those who last ran 46 days ago rather than 45 is, but you need to be rigid with the filtering. Over time this pays off even if it’s not always totally logical as very often logic doesn’t prevail in horse racing.
Finally we get down to the 7/10 stats.
7/10 Ran in 9 or fewer handicaps
I tend not to go that low as 7/10. You could just back all three and in fact I have already backed one of these on another ratings-based approach so feel really strong about his chances given he makes this shortlist.
However, for purely sticking to the 10-year winner trends for the Royal Hunt Cup it just gives us one selection -:
TWO FOR TWO 20/1 (Skybet paying five places)
He is also the only one carrying 9-0 or higher which six of the last 10 winners have carried and looks a value price for the O’Meara/Tudhope combination.
The big plus is that he is also MSR1 (ie Top Speed ranked runner on my speed ratings here) so we have confirmation from a strong rating to back up the trends.
I hope you have all enjoyed this post and that the damn thing wins or at least rewards each-way support.
However, even if it doesn’t remember don’t lose faith…this approach only has to be successful once over a 10 year period at double-figure odds to generate a profit over time and they often hit regularly – think long-term and don’t let the smarties put you off…you can do this !
------------------
Royal Hunt Cup
I actually wanted some confirmation from another alternative, non-ratings angle to give a secondary bet in this race as it’s a bloody minefield without a method to use! Forget ‘form’ analysis in this size field, you will tie yourself in total knots.
If you haven’t yet availed yourself of the wonderful historical trends that are posted on the Racecaller forum I suggest you do so now and get stuck in to the data and perform your own trends analysis. I thought I would put up my own method of performing trends analysis which has nailed many big-priced winners over the last few years including three of the last four Irish Grand National winners at 33/1, 40/1 and 50/1 – not bad for a fundamentally flawed approach !
So let’s start with the elimination method and focus on the stronger stats and work our way down till we have a shortlist -:
10/10 Carried between 8-8 and 9-5
10/10 Aged four to six
10/10 Career high RPR of 99+ in one of last three starts
10/10 Won over a mile
9/10 Official Rating between 93 and 102
9/10 Ran in last 45 days
9/10 Finished in first four of one of last two starts
9/9 Drawn 11 or higher
Believe it or not those simple filters just take 5 minutes to run through using the Racing Post to get the shortlist down to just four runners for further analysis. Those four runners are -:
TWO FOR TWO
SPA’S DANCER
CAPTAIN BERTIE
This is the whole point of ‘trends’ based on historical trends of winners. If you do this in the big races each year you will make a profit over time. For me personally making a long-term profit in horse racing is all about exploiting different angles, unique data analysis, being selective and focusing on value.
This is just a method of shortlisting either for sole betting or confirmation/strength using other angles ¦it is not designed to be rocket science or an exercise in showing how clever you are, fact is that anybody can do this thanks to the very useful and free stats resources over at Racecaller forum and a few minutes time.
So let’s now examine the 8/10 stats to see if we can reduce these four further.
8/10 Won a Class 3 or better
8/10 Won three or fewer handicaps
There is also an argument for focusing on those who are drawn 20+ as this has provided seven of the last nine winners at Royal Ascot which would be a slight black mark against Educate. For me it’s always nice when a black mark is against the shortest priced one on the shortlist.
Another negative for Educate is that he has won four handicaps which is more than the ideal three ‘trend’. This may seem pedantic, just as ruling out those who last ran 46 days ago rather than 45 is, but you need to be rigid with the filtering. Over time this pays off even if it’s not always totally logical as very often logic doesn’t prevail in horse racing.
Finally we get down to the 7/10 stats.
7/10 Ran in 9 or fewer handicaps
I tend not to go that low as 7/10. You could just back all three and in fact I have already backed one of these on another ratings-based approach so feel really strong about his chances given he makes this shortlist.
However, for purely sticking to the 10-year winner trends for the Royal Hunt Cup it just gives us one selection -:
TWO FOR TWO 20/1 (Skybet paying five places)
He is also the only one carrying 9-0 or higher which six of the last 10 winners have carried and looks a value price for the O’Meara/Tudhope combination.
The big plus is that he is also MSR1 (ie Top Speed ranked runner on my speed ratings here) so we have confirmation from a strong rating to back up the trends.
I hope you have all enjoyed this post and that the damn thing wins or at least rewards each-way support.
However, even if it doesn’t remember don’t lose faith…this approach only has to be successful once over a 10 year period at double-figure odds to generate a profit over time and they often hit regularly – think long-term and don’t let the smarties put you off…you can do this !
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