Skip to main content

Royal Hunt Cup trends preview

The time-honoured Royal Hunt Cup is close to the toughest race of the week to single out a bet and a winner. Good luck if you can find it by solely weeding through the form. Dave McAulay, @formbet, prefers the trends approach. Read more of his work on the Formbet site.

------------------

Royal Hunt Cup

I actually wanted some confirmation from another alternative, non-ratings angle to give a secondary bet in this race as it’s a bloody minefield without a method to use! Forget ‘form’ analysis in this size field, you will tie yourself in total knots.

If you haven’t yet availed yourself of the wonderful historical trends that are posted on the Racecaller forum I suggest you do so now and get stuck in to the data and perform your own trends analysis. I thought I would put up my own method of performing trends analysis which has nailed many big-priced winners over the last few years including three of the last four Irish Grand National winners at 33/1, 40/1 and 50/1 – not bad for a fundamentally flawed approach !

So let’s start with the elimination method and focus on the stronger stats and work our way down till we have a shortlist -:

10/10 Carried between 8-8 and 9-5

10/10 Aged four to six

10/10 Career high RPR of 99+ in one of last three starts

10/10 Won over a mile

9/10 Official Rating between 93 and 102

9/10 Ran in last 45 days

9/10 Finished in first four of one of last two starts

9/9 Drawn 11 or higher

Believe it or not those simple filters just take 5 minutes to run through using the Racing Post to get the shortlist down to just four runners for further analysis. Those four runners are -:

TWO FOR TWO

EDUCATE

SPA’S DANCER

CAPTAIN BERTIE

This is the whole point of ‘trends’ based on historical trends of winners. If you do this in the big races each year you will make a profit over time. For me personally making a long-term profit in horse racing is all about exploiting different angles, unique data analysis, being selective and focusing on value.

This is just a method of shortlisting either for sole betting or confirmation/strength using other angles ¦it is not designed to be rocket science or an exercise in showing how clever you are, fact is that anybody can do this thanks to the very useful and free stats resources over at Racecaller forum and a few minutes time.

So let’s now examine the 8/10 stats to see if we can reduce these four further.

8/10 Won a Class 3 or better

8/10 Won three or fewer handicaps

There is also an argument for focusing on those who are drawn 20+ as this has provided seven of the last nine winners at Royal Ascot which would be a slight black mark against Educate. For me it’s always nice when a black mark is against the shortest priced one on the shortlist.

Another negative for Educate is that he has won four handicaps which is more than the ideal three ‘trend’. This may seem pedantic, just as ruling out those who last ran 46 days ago rather than 45 is, but you need to be rigid with the filtering. Over time this pays off even if it’s not always totally logical as very often logic doesn’t prevail in horse racing.

Finally we get down to the 7/10 stats.

7/10 Ran in 9 or fewer handicaps

I tend not to go that low as 7/10. You could just back all three and in fact I have already backed one of these on another ratings-based approach so feel really strong about his chances given he makes this shortlist.

However, for purely sticking to the 10-year winner trends for the Royal Hunt Cup it just gives us one selection -:

TWO FOR TWO 20/1 (Skybet paying five places)

He is also the only one carrying 9-0 or higher which six of the last 10 winners have carried and looks a value price for the O’Meara/Tudhope combination.

The big plus is that he is also MSR1 (ie Top Speed ranked runner on my speed ratings here) so we have confirmation from a strong rating to back up the trends.

I hope you have all enjoyed this post and that the damn thing wins or at least rewards each-way support.

However, even if it doesn’t remember don’t lose faith…this approach only has to be successful once over a 10 year period at double-figure odds to generate a profit over time and they often hit regularly – think long-term and don’t let the smarties put you off…you can do this !

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…