Skip to main content

Royal Hunt Cup trends preview

The time-honoured Royal Hunt Cup is close to the toughest race of the week to single out a bet and a winner. Good luck if you can find it by solely weeding through the form. Dave McAulay, @formbet, prefers the trends approach. Read more of his work on the Formbet site.

------------------

Royal Hunt Cup

I actually wanted some confirmation from another alternative, non-ratings angle to give a secondary bet in this race as it’s a bloody minefield without a method to use! Forget ‘form’ analysis in this size field, you will tie yourself in total knots.

If you haven’t yet availed yourself of the wonderful historical trends that are posted on the Racecaller forum I suggest you do so now and get stuck in to the data and perform your own trends analysis. I thought I would put up my own method of performing trends analysis which has nailed many big-priced winners over the last few years including three of the last four Irish Grand National winners at 33/1, 40/1 and 50/1 – not bad for a fundamentally flawed approach !

So let’s start with the elimination method and focus on the stronger stats and work our way down till we have a shortlist -:

10/10 Carried between 8-8 and 9-5

10/10 Aged four to six

10/10 Career high RPR of 99+ in one of last three starts

10/10 Won over a mile

9/10 Official Rating between 93 and 102

9/10 Ran in last 45 days

9/10 Finished in first four of one of last two starts

9/9 Drawn 11 or higher

Believe it or not those simple filters just take 5 minutes to run through using the Racing Post to get the shortlist down to just four runners for further analysis. Those four runners are -:

TWO FOR TWO

EDUCATE

SPA’S DANCER

CAPTAIN BERTIE

This is the whole point of ‘trends’ based on historical trends of winners. If you do this in the big races each year you will make a profit over time. For me personally making a long-term profit in horse racing is all about exploiting different angles, unique data analysis, being selective and focusing on value.

This is just a method of shortlisting either for sole betting or confirmation/strength using other angles ¦it is not designed to be rocket science or an exercise in showing how clever you are, fact is that anybody can do this thanks to the very useful and free stats resources over at Racecaller forum and a few minutes time.

So let’s now examine the 8/10 stats to see if we can reduce these four further.

8/10 Won a Class 3 or better

8/10 Won three or fewer handicaps

There is also an argument for focusing on those who are drawn 20+ as this has provided seven of the last nine winners at Royal Ascot which would be a slight black mark against Educate. For me it’s always nice when a black mark is against the shortest priced one on the shortlist.

Another negative for Educate is that he has won four handicaps which is more than the ideal three ‘trend’. This may seem pedantic, just as ruling out those who last ran 46 days ago rather than 45 is, but you need to be rigid with the filtering. Over time this pays off even if it’s not always totally logical as very often logic doesn’t prevail in horse racing.

Finally we get down to the 7/10 stats.

7/10 Ran in 9 or fewer handicaps

I tend not to go that low as 7/10. You could just back all three and in fact I have already backed one of these on another ratings-based approach so feel really strong about his chances given he makes this shortlist.

However, for purely sticking to the 10-year winner trends for the Royal Hunt Cup it just gives us one selection -:

TWO FOR TWO 20/1 (Skybet paying five places)

He is also the only one carrying 9-0 or higher which six of the last 10 winners have carried and looks a value price for the O’Meara/Tudhope combination.

The big plus is that he is also MSR1 (ie Top Speed ranked runner on my speed ratings here) so we have confirmation from a strong rating to back up the trends.

I hope you have all enjoyed this post and that the damn thing wins or at least rewards each-way support.

However, even if it doesn’t remember don’t lose faith…this approach only has to be successful once over a 10 year period at double-figure odds to generate a profit over time and they often hit regularly – think long-term and don’t let the smarties put you off…you can do this !

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…