Skip to main content

Wimbledon preview - men

The committee at the All-England Club made the bizarre decision last week not to upgrade the seeding of a former champion and long-time world no.1 over a player with one quarter-final appearance here in 10 years. Oh, he'd won the rubbish grass tournament at s'Hertogenbosch before so that's more important. What a farce. Or was it a failed attempt by the club to produce a soft draw for Andy Murray? After all, either he or Djokovic had to be the beneficiary... Anyway, we now have Djokovic trading at evens with most bookies which spoils much of the fun.

1. Djokovic - as mentioned above, gets the very soft draw. Might face Haas in R3, Gasquet or Berdych R4, and Ferrer/Dolgopolov/Nishikori/Dimitrov/del Potro in the semi-final. Biggest risk for him is that he doesn't get a hard enough test before the final. Only injury will stop him playing on Sunday week.

2. Murray - on the harder side of the draw but only has to face 'one' of Federer and Nadal in the semi before a likely final against Djokovic. That is, of course, assuming he gets past Tsonga in the quarters. In good nick after winning at Queen's, and curiously, it looks like he will play three of those opponents again here. I reckon he can win the lot but his price is higher because of the harder draw.

3. Federer - wrote him off a few years ago re winning another Slam and proved me to be the fool this time last year. This time, he'll have to beat Nadal, Murray and Djokovic to win the title. Reckon I'm fairly safe to say it can't be done unless he gets breaks in the draw.

4. Ferrer - ridiculous that he is seeded four here and that he has copped a very soft quarter to boot. His biggest scalp ever here has been del Potro who was seeded ninth last year. No guarantee he gets through this section though, Dolgopolov, Kohlschreiber, Nishikori, Dimitrov and del Potro all have a shot to again deny him the complete set of Slam semi-finals.

5. Nadal - has been tuning up in the Hurlingham exhibition, can't see him having too many worries before a QF clash with Federer. Never doubt the ability of Nadal to string big wins together.

6. Tsonga - forever touted as the danger outside the big four and has made successive semi-finals here. Would need to beat Murray to stretch that run to three but hasn't beaten the Scot since 2008, with a record of 2-8. Worth noting in four of the five times he has faced Murray on grass, he has won the first set.

7. Berdych - finalist here back in 2010 but also bombed out R1 last year. That sums him up really. Needs to overcome a 2-13 record against Djokovic to get any further than the quarters.

8. del Potro - gets the 'soft' quarter and has his chance of winning it. But he could also go as early as R3 against Dimitrov. Never past R4 here, that's his level on grass.

That's it for winning chances, and probably three more than I needed to write up.

Not keen on an early bet, I like Murray this year but since he'll be odds-against in the final anyway, I don't see any great rush to get on him early and take all the risk that goes with it.

Murray to win but worry about betting on him late in the second week.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…