Skip to main content

July Stakes preview

The July meeting at Newmarket is a great three days of racing, and we're blessed in the UK at the moment with a glorious run of genuine summer weather. So any horse needing a bit of give in the ground probably won't be peaking this week. One of the early features of the meeting is the Group II July Stakes for the two year olds, so who better to draft in for the preview than @twoyearoldtips from the excellent new site Twoyearoldtips.

---------------

The July Stakes

A very exciting renewal of the July Stakes with a field full of promising two year olds. Three bring Royal Ascot form to the table and they are taken on by three juveniles whose profiles are without blemish. Could be the finest two year old race of the season so far.

Anjaal- a son of Bahamian Bounty who cost 105,000 guineas as a yearling for owner Sheikh Hamdan and trained by Richard Hannon. Two runs to date have resulted in one win. Finished eighth on debut when favourite in a Newmarket maiden that has been boosted time and again this year. Then made no mistake when bolting up by four lengths at Beverley when heavily backed. That was a weak race in the context of this and will have to improve to win for connections who took this race last year with Alhebayeb.

Astaire- was a very impressive winner on his only start to date, when making all in a maiden at York. That wasn't a great race for the track but he showed good speed and won cosily. The performance can be upgraded by the lack of stable form in the two year old department, and whilst they are still not banging in the level of winners they usually do, things have improved a touch recently. Could well fly under the radar here and has the potential to run a bring race at rewarding odds.

Bahamian Heights- another son of Bahamian Bounty, who is having a fine season with his juveniles. This one looks to lack the class of some of these although he showed a fine attitude when winning last time out under a good ride from today's jockey. Would appear to be another example of Clive Brittain over facing one of his charges. Not for mine on this occasion.

Brown Sugar- ran an incredible race on debut, when an unconsidered 40/1 shot in a Newmarket maiden won by the reopposing Jallota. Was slowly away that day and drifted across the track before finishing like a train to be beaten only just over a length. Made no mistake next time when odds on at Salisbury winning easily by five lengths. Will be interesting to see how he fares in the market in relation to Anjaal. Another one to take very seriously.

Canyari- seen only once just under two months ago when bolting up by five lengths on debut from the useful Legend Rising, twice a winner since. The third that day who was ten lengths behind has also won a maiden at Ripon. Will be intriguing to find out why he has been off the track since debut, as his bare form merited a trip to Royal meeting. If he has been targetted for this race then must have a massive chance of making it worth the wait.

Figure of Speech- impressive winner on debut when slamming Whaleweigh Station by four lengths over course and distance. No reason why that one should turn the form around and the trainer and jockey combination are always to be feared on the July course. However they don't always improve as much as expected from first run to second but if this one does then he is another fascinating player.

Intermath- From the David Evans yard and Tom Queally rides. Perhaps a fortunate winner on debut at Salisbury, favourite veered violently hampering the second and third, but very unfortunate when returning to the Wiltshire venue for his second start. Was cantering just off the pace when he fly jumped the path unseating today's jockey. May well have won that day but will have to improve to trouble the principals here.

Jallota- consistent sort who has form lines with Astaire and Brown Sugar who ran his best race to date when fifth to the hugely impressive War Command in the Coventry. Finished only 2.25 lengths of the second that day and that form gives him a chance here. However is more exposed than many in this field and it would be a surprise if he finished top of the pile.

Master Carpenter- a colt by first season sire Mastercraftsman who has won two of his four races to date for trainer Rod Millman. Finished well down the field when quietly fancied for the Chesham last time and the suspicion is this is a stronger race. Back down to the trip where he showed his best form but i can't see him having the class to take a hand at the finish here.

Sir John Hawkins- Regally bred juvenile, 2nd foal of multiple group one winner Peeping Fawn by Henrythenavigotor, from the Ballydoyle team. Perhaps surprising given his pedigree that he has proved so precocious, beating a useful yardstick of Jim Bolger's on debut before running a fine race when third behind his stablemate War Command in the Coventry. Trainer won this with Ivan Denisovich in 2005, and has had only one runner since when Gale Force Ten was a beaten favourite last year. Has the best form in the field, but its fair to say this wouldn't be a target for the stable's absolute top notch juveniles. Likely to be well found in the market and opposable for mine in this.

Whaleweigh Station- Evidently well thought of by his trainer, won this in 2006, who was well backed when a good second on debut. Was expected to put this experience to good use next time over course and distance, when sent off at 6/4. Ran a solid race but was firmly put in his place by debutant Figure of Speech and no real reason why he will reverse the form with that rival.

A fascinating renewal, with plenty of unexposed sorts taking on those with Ascot form. Obviously the market will tell us more but at this stage it is fair to assume that Sir John Hawkins will be a pretty warm order. He brings the strongest form to the table but I feel may be vulnerable at the potential prices with plenty of likely improver's lurking in the field. Whilst it is a bit unsettling he hasn't been seen for two months Canyari's debut form, when thrashing a useful sort by five lengths, looks very good and he is taken to graduate to group class in style here. Of the many dangers Astaire looks one who could be overpriced whilst Brown Sugar is another who could run a big race.


Verdict
1 Canyari
2 Astaire
3 Brown Sugar

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…