Skip to main content

Lonsdale Cup preview

The Ebor might be the headline act this week but there's a higher class race for the top-line stayers - the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup. Stepping up for his blog debut is Adam Webb, @AdamWebb121. Read more of his penmanship by visiting his blog

--------------------------

Lonsdale Cup

Day three of the Ebor meeting has both extremes of flat racing from the speedsters in the Nunthorpe compared to the stayers in the Lonsdale Cup in which seven go to post. Sadly earlier this week, the Queen’s Ascot Gold Cup winner Estimate was ruled out of this race by trainer Sir Michael Stoute as he was not satisfied with the filly’s well-being.

That has taken some of the intrigue from the race but we still have a top class performer in Simenon who was second behind Estimate at Ascot who has the Melbourne Cup as his main aim later in the year. He was very unlucky when running on to be fourth earlier in the season in the Chester Cup behind Address Unknown before his excellent run at the Royal meeting. He will enjoy the ground on the Knavesmire but I would be concerned by a couple of things. First of all, there is a possibility that he won’t be fully wound up for this with this being a warm up for Flemington but my main concern is the form from the Gold Cup not looking strong with only Altano and Number Theory running well afterwards so I believe the favourite is opposable tomorrow. Times Up was very disappointing in the same race but he won this year last year on softer ground before going on to end last season on a high with a victory in the Doncaster Cup. His run before Ascot was underwhelming behind Gloomy Sunday so tomorrow is a watching brief for me.

Last year’s Ascot Gold Cup winner Colour Vision tends to run indifferently especially after his win there although his attempt to defend his crown was an excellent run when he was fourth. Apart from that, this season has been somewhat disappointing but Goodwood wasn’t his worst performance especially under a more patient ride after missing the break. If they revert back to a more prominent role then he could feature especially as the visor looks to have rekindled his enthusiasm. The other Godolphin contender who carries the first colours tomorrow is Ahzeemah who is a likable, consistent horse who has either finished first or second on his last nine starts. His last two starts in this country where he was second to Universal at Newmarket and his most previous one when second in the Goodwood Cup behind Brown Panther where he had most of today’s field behind him. He has a strong chance of winning tomorrow but I believe he will take second prize behind the John Gosden-trained CAUCUS. If you ignore his run in the Goodwood Cup then he has an excellent chance based on his victory at Sandown in the Coral Marathon where he beat Biographer by three quarters of a length in tenacious style. The trainer is in good form as proven by The Fugue’s runaway success in the Yorkshire Oaks today and he will love the fast ground plus the small field suits perfectly.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…