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Football Form Labs weekend preview

Another big weekend of football ahead - make sure any gut feelings you have are backed up by data, otherwise your P&L will pay the price. Courtesy of Football Form Labs, here's a tiny sample of what their software can do for you.

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The Football Form Labs promotion ends this weekend - Massive Savings – at least 66% off! Sign up now and pay that price for the length of your subscription.

Football Form Labs provide the most effective football betting software on the market with the ability to analyse games both pre-match and in-play across 50 different leagues. You can also generate your own models and see the statistical impact players have when they are missing. Football Form Labs' great subscription offers for the season have been extended until the end of September.

Form Lab Black is down from £150pm to £40pm (£100/qtr, £300/annual) – Try Form Lab Black here with Promo-code: FLBPROMOMONTHLY

Form Lab MAX is down from £75pm to £20pm (£50/qtr, £150/annual) – Try Form Lab Max here with Promo-code: FLMPROMONTHLY


And, there's a live webinar this afternoon at 2pm UKT to explain how this powerful software works. Sign up for it here.

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PERFORMANCE REVIEW

We’ve started publishing our first Daily Reports from the winter leagues in the past week and we’ve taken a look at some of the recent performance highlights.

Head-to-Head and Over-Performing Strategy: Since we started tracking and publishing the matches that come up under these two strategies that we highlighted last month there have been 34 relevant matches. These strategies both look for home teams to bet on their handicap line and so far just one of the 33 home teams has lost. Combined the two strategies are 9.03 points up, giving a 26.6% ROI.

Daily Reports: Recommendations for over/under goals have been flying for the past six weeks. These are up 8.93 points from 28.5 points staked – a 31.3% ROI. The Allsvenskan has enjoyed a particularly strong run with seven winners from the last eight goals recommendations and the winter leagues have also started with four winners from five.

With the over/under goals Daily Reports in the Big 5 leagues having produced a 20% profit, from over 250 points staked in the past three seasons, we look forward to another successful season in the goals markets.

#FFLtips: our tips posted on Twitter with the #FFLtips have made an encouraging start since we published our first one on the 6th August. They are currently 3.25 points up from 22 recommendations, including a run of seven wins from the last eight tips given on top-flight divisions (with an average price of 2.31).

These tips are generally posted close to game time and are based on matches one of our analysts is checking at the time. The reasons these won’t have been posted as a Daily Report are usually down to waiting for a particular piece of team news, or due to having not spotted the game early enough to publish to Form Labs. As such we are unable to say when, or how often, we will tweet these tips.

MATCH PREVIEWS

Premier League: Spurs v Chelsea


Spurs have conceded just one goal this season to sit second in the table behind arch rivals Arsenal . However, they lost their only major test so far, in the North London derby, so if they want to prove they are genuine title contenders they will look to make full use of home advantage here against Chelsea.

Four of the last six meetings between these teams have finished all-square and if we look at the 10 head-to-heads since 2008/09 there hasn’t been much between the two sides with a W2-D5-L3 record for Spurs.

Spurs have lost just one of their last 15 home matches, during which only Everton have managed to score twice at White Hart Lane. Furthermore, The Lillywhites have won four and lost just two of their last 10 home games against top-six sides.

Chelsea have not found their net in their opening two away games this term and they seem to be paying the price for Jose Mourinho’s decision to ignore their most creative player, Juan Mata. Since joining the club Mata has missed only 10 away games and The Blues have the unenviable record of not winning any of them (W0-D5-L5) – scoring just five goals in the process. Since the opening 30 minutes on the first day Chelsea have looked far from convincing and Spurs look great value at 1.91 on the Draw No Bet.

Of their combined games this season, nine of 10 have had fewer than three goals (6/10 -1.5). Again we’d point to seven of the 10 away matches Mata’s missed, and 8/11 anywhere since the start of last season, having fewer than three goals. Contradicting this is the strong record of both teams scoring, and over 2.5 goals, both teams have against top-six teams. -2.5 goals was decent value at 1.95 earlier in the week but that’s come down to a best price of 1.83 and at that price we’d leave it alone and stick to the match outcome markets.


Bundesliga: Hoffenheim v Schalke

Hoffenheim have offered plenty of excitement this season with their opening six games seeing a massive 30 goals. They’re unbeaten at home this season, and against an inconsistent Schalke side they’ll look to extend that run. Schalke have lost two of their three away games and were thrashed at home last weekend by Bayern.

It’s surprising to see Hoffenheim as outsiders here given they’ve never lost at home to Schalke, who are without a couple of important players. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is still injured, and in the 14 matches he’s missed since the start of last season Schalke have lost six times. This includes five defeats in the eight away games he’s missed, during which they’ve scored only six goals. Furthermore, Schalke have lost nine of their last 16 away matches, including five of their last six trips to middle-third teams.

Hoffenheim have improved since last season, and even then they had a respectable record of W3-D1-L3 record hosting teams that finished 3rd-9th. They had to play 120 minutes in midweek but the extra 30 shouldn’t overly affect them with no significant injury worries. At 2.1 they look a really solid bet on the Draw No Bet market.

Hoffenheim have scored before half-time in all their six games this season, and their last 14 matches have all featured at least three goals (8/14 +3.5). Schalke’s scoring power might be reduced without Huntelaar but three of the five games he’s missed this season have had +2.5 goals, as have seven of their nine away games since the start of last season when conceding in the first half (W0-D2-L7). This match finished 3-2 to Hoffenheim last season and a repeat looks possible with over 3.0 goals a good looking 1.962 with Pinnacle.


La Liga: Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid

Last season Atletico came into the first derby of the season having lost just one of their opening 13 games. They lost 2-0 and then lost the second derby later in the season to make it eight consecutive derby defeats in the league. They did, however, win the Copa del Rey final against their rivals in May, courtesy of an extra-time winner so will hope they have now ended the hoodoo which had seen them go 25 games, and almost 14 years, in all competitions without beating Real Madrid.

This time Atletico have won their opening six games while Real have been unconvincing in winning five. However, Atletico have not played a team currently in the top half yet while Real are unbeaten in 34 home games including 20 wins in their last 21 at the Bernabeu. 16 of those 20 wins were by more than one goal and while Atletico have lost only five away games since the start of last season four were by more than one goal. 1.7 looks a huge price on Real and we’d back them on the Asian handicap -1.0 at 2.2.

Incredibly, Real have conceded in all of their last 10 home matches and 16 of their last 18 have had +2.5 goals. With Atletico having scored at least twice in their last five on the road, goals look likely. Last season’s derbies were tighter affairs but over 3.0 goals still looks a great price at 1.826 with Pinnacle.

Using Football Form Labs you can identify thousands of betting opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues.


PLAYER ANALYSIS

Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a couple of significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what that might mean.

N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.

Aston Villa v Man City

Christian Benteke, Forward, Aston Villa


Benteke has missed just six games since joining Villa and without him their matches have averaged just 2.17 goals per game with 4/6 having -2.5 goals.

Fiorentina v Parma

Amauri, Forward, Parma


Amauri has missed nine away games since the start of last season and without him Parma have scored just six goals and lost six times. He missed trips to three of the top four last season and Parma were beaten by two goals each time.

Form Lab Black can analyse the impact players on team trends to provide the most complete betting solution.

To see which other players are key, and which are not, use the Player analysis in Form Lab Black. Tools within the Player Analysis allow you to examine what a team’s most effective partnerships are in key positions and the impact of players on a variety of different markets.

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