Skip to main content

Old Borough Cup part two

I wouldn't normally print two previews of the same race but blog regular @kierankenneally has written a long piece centred around the favourite, Pallasator, which also happens to be the selection of my other contributor today.

----------------------

Old Borough Cup part two

Sir Mark Prescott's strike rate for the last 26 years stands at just under 21% and this year is no different from any of the previous. Of the top 90 trainers in the British Trainers Championship (5th Sept Racing Post) he has the best strike rate this year at 25%, and from a small string has had 18 individual winners from only 34 horses to run so far! (over 50%)

Not surprisingly the bookies are well aware of this remarkable trainer and even with those astonishing stats he has only shown a level stake profit in two of those 26 years! This however doesn't tell the full story and there are quite a few quirks, habits and patterns that can enable you to turn loss into profit!

He seldom has first time out runners ready to win, (except for some owners) his strike rate for 2yr olds is much less than his overall rate, ( except in Nursery's) he seems to have three distinct ways of training horses and sometimes it's possible to know when he's going to switch from one to the other by the gaps between races, the distance of the race, the choice of jockey, draw or even the track! I have immersed myself in this trainer like no other, because of his consistency, over the last number of years and I will never get to the bottom of this genius!

One of the greatest losses to racing over a long period of years in my opinion, and it seems to be his own choice is to do his own thing rather than train for some of the "bigger" owners! Primarily known as a trainer of staying handicappers I can't help wondering what would have happened with a regular supply of better horses! Occasionally he has had horses that reach Listed or Group level and I believe he has one such horse this year in Pallasator!

Pallasator first entered my notebook as a 2yr old on the 5-12-2011 when finishing 4th at Lingfield over a mile. He hasn't left my notebook since, because he hasn't lost since winning at SP's of 9/4, 7/2 and 11/4. His form can be best analysed on two horses he has beaten, Sound Hearts ( placed in 3 Listed races since) and Saytara.

After getting beaten by Pallasator, Saytara won her next race a C2 handicap by 7 lengths! In her only run of 2013 so far, she finished a close up 5th in a hot Ascot handicap behind Bishop Roko and Genzy. Genzy subsequently finished a close second in the Ebor Handicap and his form can be tied in quite closely with Group horses such as Red Cadeaux and Listed winner Lost in The Moment!

Pallasator was entered in the Ebor but was taken out late in the day because of concerns over the ground. The blow for connections was that it rained quite heavily the day before the race turning the ground good/soft and I believe he would have gone close if left in. Late season targets include the Cesarewitch on Oct 12th and this big striding horse can get his season off to a belated start at Haydock on Saturday.

After waiting 344 days for this horse to run, the anticipation for me is intense! Not just to see if he has trained on from his 3yr old days but also for the immense satisfaction I derive from identifying a horse as a 2yr old in a rubbish C6 race in the middle of winter at Lingfield that could progress to big race success and backing him with hard cash along the way. Building up a relationship with horses over a number of years is one of the things I love about this sport!

I will be astonished if Pallasator doesn't turn into a Group horse before the end of the year and hopefully Saturdays race at Haydock can be the first step along the way.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2019

We're back again for the greatest race on turf, the world's richest staying race and the only race in the world which creates a public holiday for millions of locals.




Once again a fine international field has been assembled and it's worth a deep look at the race. So get a cuppa and find a comfortable seat to plough your way through my preview!

--------------------------------

The Lexus Melbourne Cup
Group 1, Handicap, 3200m
AUD 7,750,000
Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT
Broadcasters - Network 10 (AUS), Racing.com (worldwide), SkySportsRacing (UK)


1. Cross Counter
Trainer - Charlie Appleby (one previous Cup win)
Jockey - William Buick
Breeding - Teofilo - Waitress
Drawn 5, Weight 57.5kg

Last year's impressive winner who doesn't get the 3yo weight advantage this time. Won first up at Meydan in March but has run fourth, third, fourth in the big set weights staying races in England and Ireland, never quite making it as the next big staying star. While running close behind Stradivar…

Westow Stakes - York 16/5/19

The sun was out for a glorious opening day of the meeting, and races down the straight appeared to have no concerns about draw bias. Thursday's card has a few higher profile races but this 3yo sprint is worth watching closely, tomorrow and for future form.



British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes
£50k, Listed & Class 1, 3yo, 5f
York 1605

Soldier's Call - flying machine, winning four of six starts in Britain last season, running third in the Prix L'Abbaye, beaten a neck at WFA then finished sixth as joint favourite in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint. Has plenty on these on ratings, but life's rarely that simple with unexposed 3yos early in the season.

Broken Spear - more exposed than most of these and well beaten by Garrus first up. Missed Chester last week, probably due to the rain (or a poor draw). Pass.

Charming Kid - won at this meeting last season but has been a little erratic ever since. Well beaten on AW Championships Day, appears to be a few lengths off these.

Garrus -…