Skip to main content

Silver Cambridgeshire preview

Apologies for the late posting, please welcome to the blog a new contributor, and an old contact of mine, someone I taught in the Betfair Academy many years ago.
Welcome aboard Billy Blakeman.....

-------------------

Following the relatively new trend of running the same big handicap twice, or even three times to allow those that did not make the cut for the big one a consolation race, the ‘Silver Cambridgeshire’ is run over the Cambridgeshire course and distance.

@five2tenracing specialise in 5f to 10f all-aged handicaps and here, chief analyst Billy Blakeman breezes through the 28-runners. Billy writes for a number of sites and his work can be found at BetRacingNation and his OLBG blog.

HAAFHD Handicap (Silver Cambridgeshire)
5.00 Newmarket
1m1f Class 2


1. NICEOFYOUTOTELLME - Improved on his 3-y-o form when winning an AW handicap in April and followed up on turf a couple of months later. Not gone on from that upped in class but slow start a valid excuse for his John Smiths Cup flop and then he was dealt a dreadful draw at Haydock, resulting in another game of catch up. Far from disgraced in that Haydock race in a hood (dispensed with here) and I like the fact he has proven his stamina over a bit further than this; could have more to offer.

2. BEAUMONT’S PARTY - Tough sort who will have a certain Ryan Moore for company this afternoon. Escapes a 4 lb rise for getting beat last time and whilst some will jump on that as evidence the horse is well handicapped, I am not convinced and a good run without winning looks the likely scenario for a horse who may need further.

3. CREDIT SWAP - N/R

4. BANCNUANAHEIREANN - This has almost killed my spellchecker and if I was a commentator, I would pretend I couldn’t see this horse! An admirable fourth in the Cambridgeshire itself in 2012 was not the first time the horse has placed in a big handicap but now a 6-y-o, he needs to find something more. Maybe Mr Fallon can help in that respect but maybe still more of a place than a win prospect.

5. SPIRIT OF THE LAW - Multiple winner across all ground types and a consistent animal to boot so a good start. Trained by Richard Fahey which is another obvious plus and Paul Hanagan takes over from regular partner, George Challoner.

6. AUSSIE REIGNS - N/R

7. SHAVANSKY - I am going to declare this 9-y-o a most unlikely winner.

8. TIGER’S TALE - Laid out for this race? “Sort of” according to trainer Roger Teal and given that the services of Richard Hughes have been secured, it is clear a good run is expected. Based on a trio of placed efforts over a mile this year, the horse is handicapped to go close and I fancy the extra furlong could well unlock some improvement on this return from a short break.

9. ALBAQAA - After a long season, I would be surprised if this veteran were able to take a race like this.

10. HEFNER - A winner over hurdles last September and wouldn’t be out of this on his best form. Perhaps a slight stamina doubt though.

11. ICEBUSTER - On a fair mark but 3/28 and others have more scope to improve.

12. MORPHEUS - Impeccably bred colt who is a half-brother to Frankel no less. Owned by Price Abdullah and trained by Lady Cecil, this 3-y-o looks to have just the right profile and comes here nice and fresh from a 6-week break.

13. GEORGE CINQ - Michael Bell trained 3-y-o and whilst it is fair to consider his stamina is in question, the trainer has no doubts. Has been kept away from fast ground but assuming he takes his chance, he has prospects re-united with Jamie Spencer who steered him to his last win. Wearing a hood second time.

14. STEVIE THUNDER - Out of form 8-y-o, stop there.

15. CLASSIC COLORI - 43 races so far and this 6-y-o is better in small fields.

16. CALAF - 4/38 and all wins in fields of 6 or less.

17. DREAM WALKER - Hugely improved for new yard and it makes you wonder what the old yard were doing! Quite possible the handicapper hasn’t yet got to him but softer ground may be a requisite.

18. ROYAL PRIZE - Had a long season but latest effort was much his best. Step up in trip in a bigger field could unlock further improvement from this 3-y-o and looks a contender.

19. BANK ON ME - Not managed to win any of his last 15-races and nothing in hand of his mark based on his last couple of efforts. However, well treated if you go back a bit further and I think he has a race like this in him. Drawn 27 and no surprise if he outran his odds.

20. CHRISTMAS LIGHT - Oisin Murphy the only positive about a 6-y-o mare whose form appears to be tailing off.

21. SCOTTISH STAR - I wouldn’t worry too much about the drop back in distance and could go well from a high draw. Prefer others though and 0-11 on grass.

22. ON MY OWN - 4-y-o colt who shot clear of his rivals here in July before suffering a 20-length defeat next time out at Redcar. Possible soft ground that day didn’t suit and so far from impossible if you can forgive that run.

23. DOLPHIN ROCK - Veteran of 47-races looks too exposed.

24. SILVER DIXIE - Progressive colt with Jeremy Noseda whose stamina is proven up to 12f. Handles quick ground just fine and has to be considered a prime contender, especially as 3-y-o’s have taken all three previous renewals of this race.

25. COPPERWOOD - Again I am going to be dismissive about an 8-y-o with plenty of miles on the clock.

26. SHEILA’S BUDDY - Had 29-races and yet to win this year but this 4-y-o looks on a cracking mark off 71. Previously run to a mark of 81 on fast turf, slow turf and polytrack so undoubtedly well-handicapped. Proven stamina and one of the better outsiders.

27. SAVE THE BEES - N/R

28. PELAMISM - Quirky, high-mileage come from behind sprinter basically so happy to leave him out today.

Summary - It goes without saying that there are many possible winners of this and there is no need to restrict yourself to one horse. I have to make a call though and number 1 on the card NICEOFYOUTOTELLME gets the nod for the reasons mentioned above. Fellow 4-y-o’s Sheila’s Buddy, Bank On Me and Tiger’s Tale all warrant close consideration.

From the classic generation, the pick of the contenders are Silver Dixie, Morpheus, George Cinq and Aussie Reigns.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…