Skip to main content

Thousand Guineas preview

The Victorian fillies' classic is the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield, traditionally held on the Wednesday between the Caulfield Guineas and the Caulfield Cup. In charge of the preview is a new contributor, Trent Masenhelder, @tmase04. Not just any old blogger, but a panelist on Horse Talk, a radio show on Dubai Eye 103.8 and International reporter for SEN 1116 in Melbourne. Welcome aboard Trent!

--------------------------------

Thousand Guineas

1. GUELPH ($1.40) – Sensational filly from the Peter Snowden yard looking to emulate success of stablemate Long John, who won the Caulfield Guineas on Saturday. Clearly the best three-year-old filly in the land and deserving of short quote. Has been set for this race and unbeaten at the mile (1600m). Jockey Kerrin McEvoy can do what he likes with her from perfect draw (barrier five) and the only thing that can beat her is bad luck.

2. GREGERS ($12) – Talented filly from the David Hayes stable who won well last time out thanks to a brilliant ride from Chad Schofield. She knows how to win, having saluted at four of her six starts, but there’s always been a doubt about her running a strong 1600m. Think she’ll get the trip but she won’t beat Guelph at level weights. Top place chance.

3. BOUND FOR EARTH ($15) – Lowered Guelph’s colours three starts back in the Group 2 Furious Stakes at Randwick over 1200m. However, the Darley filly took serious improvement from that outing and has since beaten her out of sight over 1400m and 1600m respectively. She does have form through the best three-year-old colt in the land in Zoustar and can figure in the minor end of the prize her. First start at Caulfield a small concern.

4 SE SAUVER ($15) – Sensational winner of the Edward Manifold over this trip at Flemington last time out. It was, however, a career best run and the query is whether she can back it up. Star Fashion did make her earn it on that occasion and she has been up a while. Place hope at best.

5 MAY’S DREAM ($8) – Second favourite but well under the odds for mine. There’s no doubting she has ability but she takes a quantum leap in class here. Bred to get 1600m and beyond but doubt she has the class to trouble these. Under the odds and a definite lay.

6. GODIVA ROCK ($67) – This filly has one thing going for it – she’s trained by Mick Kent. Third in the Blue Diamond as a two-year-old but she’s yet to recapture that sort of form. No excuses when a 3.25L eighth behind Se Sauver last time out. Still a maiden and won’t be notching her first win in this.

7 MIRACLE TO ME ($51) – Was disappointing behind Gregers two starts back (eighth of 11, beaten 6L) but turned in a nice effort for fourth behind the talented Paximadia two weeks later. Gate no help (barrier eight) and she looks tested at this level.

8. WORDPLAY ($21) – Very talented filly who has come on in leaps and bounds since her racetrack debut just two months ago. Sensational effort when second to Savvy Nature in Group 3 at just her third start and that form is very strong for this after Savvy Nature ran third in the Group 1 Spring Champions Stakes at Randwick at the weekend. Her last start fifth behind Se Sauver is a forgive run as it wasn’t one of Glen Boss’ finest rides. Over the odds and can run second.

9. GYPSY DIAMOND ($67) – John O’Shea clearly trying to pick up some prize money for connections here given the small field. Should get a nice run from gate one and has Brett Prebble aboard but she’s making up the numbers and will be totally outclassed.

Unlike the colts and geldings race (Caulfield Guineas), which appeared very open pre-race, this looks a no-brainer. GUELPH is the dominant three-year-old filly and has panels on her rivals. She’s very skinny odds but is entitled to be. Her preparation has been near perfect, only tasting defeat when first-up, and there’s no doubt Peter Snowden would’ve earmarked this race a long time ago. Favourites do get rolled, even $1.40 shots, and they don’t hand out Group 1s, but if she stays out of trouble she should be winning this without much fuss before a possible tilt at the Cox Plate. There’s only a few hopes to fill the placings and I’m giving the highly talented WORDPLAY the nod for second. It might be a bit soon for her but the Savvy Nature form reads well and she’s untapped. Still not convinced GREGERS runs 1600m but her class will carry her a long way in this and I’m putting her in for third.

SUGGESTION: Anchor GUELPH in multiples with WORDPLAY, GREGERS and BOUND FOR EARTH.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. =============================================== Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe   ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot   Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengt

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...