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Melbourne Cup preview - the summary

Firstly, if you want the detailed runner comments, please read the three separate posts below covering each horse's chances.

PACE MAP
(rail should be at top rather than bottom, Hawkspur for example will be wide though)



BETTING SUMMARY

So now, what do I do with the bets?
I have the eternal problem of wanting to attack the trifecta heavily, but it's damn to narrow it down. Let's start with my rankings.
21 Verema
6 Fiorente
12 Seville
23 Tres Blue
13 Super Cool
4 Sea Moon
5 Brown Panther
22 Dear Demi
15 Mount Athos
19 Simenon
10 Fawkner

1 Dunaden
16 Royal Empire
8 Dandino
17 Voleuse de Coeurs
11 Mourayan
2 Green Moon
14 Masked Marvel
7 Foreteller
18 Hawkspur
24 Ruscello
3 Red Cadeaux
9 Ethiopia
20 Ibicenco

It might be a long run to the first bend but barriers make a massive difference. The only winners from wide draws in recent years have either been on a heavy track (Doriemus 1995), or a lightweight who had won on the Saturday (Shocking 2009, Brew 2000, Rogan Josh 1999). We don't have a wet track and surely the 66/1 shot Ruscello couldn't win - it was a weak Lexus and this is a high class field. If you're stuck wide for 3200m, it's a long way round...

Based on the assumption that Ruscello will cross to lead Mourayan, with Tres Blue also sliding across, I doubt the speed will be a fast one. Ruscello won on Saturday by going as slow as he could get away with, then kicking impressively in the straight. If he dawdles too much though, expect something else to take over and make it more genuine. But who does that? Do they sacrifice their chances in doing so? Brown Panther and Masked Marvel are the obvious two who might do it, but they might be locked away on the fence. Probably a genuine European building pace we can expect.

Hopefully by race seven they start to fan wide in the belief that the rail is starting to wear and then it's all about getting the right run through. This is a fantastic race, oozing Group 1 winners and class runners from all over the world. It ain't easy - it's the hardest race of the year to win for a reason!

BETS
I'm already on Verema
Tres Blue is drifting out to a big price due to the gate. He might just be special. He's at least got the lightweight to almost fit the wide draw rule.
I also had a nibble on Super Cool, couldn't resist the 75 on Betfair on Saturday night.

THE EXOTIC
6,12,21
x
4,5,6,12,13,21,23
x
4,5,6,10,12,13,15,19,21,22,23

50% of this ticket will cost me $81.

In simple terms, if anything below Dunaden on the list above runs a place, I'm out. (Not to mention only three winning chances).

And I'll probably box the first six via Rewardbet for a small side investment as well.

May your bets be good bets, BEST OF LUCK!

And if you need anything to warm you up for the day, here's a bit of Mike Brady....



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